THEORY OF STATISTICS
The purpose of the study: to consider comprehensively the stereotype of crafty statistics, a phenomenon widely spread in Russia in recent years. It implies that any officially published data supplied by ROSSTAT (Federal State Statistics Service) are not only inadequate and unrealistic, but also deliberately distorted. The paper scrutinizes the content, reasons and possible consequences of crafty statistics.
Materials and methods. The paper attempts to unveil the genesis of the stereotype of crafty statistics as a response of civil society to sluggish efforts of government officials and politicians of different levels and ranks to stop declaring slogans and get down to real actions directed at improving living conditions and standards of the broad sectors of the populations. The paper suggests multiple reasons to explore the genesis of the stereotype of crafty statistics, which include complexity of methodology of statistical calculations, overwhelming average indicators, subjectivism in selecting indicators to describe socio-economic situation, data interpretation problems and others.
Results. The conducted analysis revealed that it is due to overlay of the above factors that predetermines not only the mass character but also the resilience of this stereotype. Also, low statistical literacy of representatives of various segments of ordinary Russians, representatives of mass media, administration bodies of different level and political beau monde contribute to this phenomenon. The study describes possible negative consequences of the further development of this stereotype leading to serious damage to the government image, which the broad sectors of the population consider the initiator of this statistics, reflecting the improvement of the situation or actions in this direction.
Conclusion. The paper reveals risks of any social stereotypes and stereotype of crafty statistics in particular thriving on the lack of trust from the population to any statistics data and turning it into an established negative trend of total distrust to any actions, projects and programs of the current government.
BUSINESS STATISTICS
The purpose of the study. The purpose of the research is to define a previously developed theoretical evolution model of an organizational structure, that is based on the hypothesis that the two types of organizational structures, consecutive and parallel, succeed each other, undergoing quality changes with the growth and development of organisations, though pertaining properties which determine the structure characteristics and provide a sufficient growth of organizations’ efficiency. Following the results of the authors’ previous research, it was hypothesized that the growth of an organization during a transition from one to the other type of organization structure follows either intensive or extensive pattern and is defined by the type of the transformation.
Materials and methods. The study analyzed the retail trade sector, with isolated branches that distinguish this type of organizational structures, and educational institutions. The authors believe that organizations of similar types possess similar (consecutive and parallel) organizational structures. Groups of similar objects were identified by the cluster analysis used for grouping basic data. Following this, the results of cluster analysis were defined and key factors for patterns of organizational development were selected by the principal component analysis. Also, the Objectives Tree method was applied to gauge the effect of the types of educational services on the performance of private educational organizations and their structure. The research analyzed the data obtained from the database of commercial organizations of Czech Republic.
Results. In general, the proposed model of the evolution of an organizational structure in retail business was redefined, and the outcomes of the conducted analysis allow defining the following:
– when transitioning from the parallel to the consecutive organizational structure, the growth can be described as intensive, and while the consecutive model transitions to the parallel organizational structure the growth follows the extensive pattern;
– development of retail business is defined by the three key factors: size of an organization, its performance efficiency and lifetime. The cluster analysis of educational organisations revealed seven clusters. After analysis of average values of variables, these clusters can be grouped in five. These outcomes led to the additional research with Objectives Tree, which showed that both small and large educational organisations employ their certain typical features of educational services. A similar pattern describes certain types of educational services in the organisations of different lifetime.
Conclusion. The outcomes of the cluster analysis of commercial organisations of two sectors of Czech Republic and their further analysis confirmed the suggested hypothesis and matched corresponding theoretical evolution models of organizational structures, the results also showed intensive growth when transitioning from the parallel to the consecutive organizational structure and extensive growth when the transition changes from the consecutive to the parallel organizational structure. The alternating patterns of consecutive and parallel structures, as well as suggested gauging of the transition effectiveness will allow owners and management staff to efficiently maintain sustainable development of commercial organisations.
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Purpose of the study. The study focuses on issues of the level assessment of transport system development of large cities. Despite the wide variety of studies on this issue, there is currently no universal approach to assessing the level of development of the transport system at megalopolises. The present study aims to create a tool for a comprehensive assessment of various aspects of urban transport development that are important for all categories of transport users, and to provide a comparative analysis of the world’s leading megacities in terms of transport development based on the proposed methodology.
Materials and methods. In the study, the authors apply an approach related to the construction of integral indexes and ratings of cities based on the values of these indexes. In the calculations of the index, the authors use statistical data from authoritative open sources and information systems of national and municipal government.
Results. Based on the results of the world practice analysis, the authors propose the Urban Transport Development Index developed in order to compare the level of transport system development in various cities. The Index provides an opportunity to identify the weaknesses and strengths of cities, to find reserves for the further improvement and development of recommendations in the field of transport policy on this basis. The Index consists of four sub-indexes: the availability of transport services for the urban population, the quality of transport services, road traffic security and the ecological impact of transport, and freight logistics performance. The Index reflects the main aspects of urban transport development and shows the views of different categories of population on the level of transport services. The paper examines the level of transport system development for 2010, 2015, 2016 and 2017 of a group of comparable cities, which includes Hong Kong, London, Mexico, Moscow, New York, St. Petersburg, Singapore, Istanbul, Tokyo and Shanghai. The results showed that Tokyo and London have occupied the leading positions during the period under review. For the seven years Moscow, St. Petersburg and Shanghai have showed the best dynamics of the Index.
Conclusion. The proposed method allows both to evaluate the effectiveness of individual regulatory measures known in the practice of other cities, and to simulate their impact on the transport system of the city. The paper concludes with recommendations for further development of cities’ transport systems.
ICT IN STATISTICS
The purpose of the study. The first goal of the study is a comparative analysis of general indicators of information and communication technologies (ICT) development and the principles of their construction, identifying the possibilities of their use for cross-country comparisons. The second goal is cross-country comparisons based on selected indicators and an assessment of the place and prospects of Russia in the context of ICT development. The objectives of the study are due to the growing worldwide interest of the international scientific community, business and government structures to the development of information and communication technologies and the formation of the information society. The Okinawa Charter on the Global Information Society, adopted in 2000, states that information and communication technologies in the 21st century will be one of the most powerful forces and their impact will change people’s lifestyles, ways of learning and working, as well as ways and possibilities for governments to interact with citizens. In this regard, the actual issue is the formation of an adequate information base for studying information and communication technologies not only as an independent object, but also as the most important factor in the formation of the functioning of the digital economy and the formation of the information society.
Materials and methods. For the study, the methods of multidimensional classification, analysis of variation, as well as a tabular method of visual presentation of the research results were used as statistical tools. For the processing of primary information, application packages of statistical analysis were used: Microsoft Excel and STATISTICA 10.0.
Results. Comparison of the indicators revealed the need for their further structuring in order to ensure the comparability of statistical analysis for the largest possible set of countries. Comparison of countries and assessment of the place of Russia was carried out on the basis of the proposed system of indicators using the methods of multidimensional classification, analysis of distributions and studying the dynamics of the indicators. The variety of tasks solved in the study of information and communication technologies and their components predetermined the presence of a large number of generalizing indicators used in cross-country comparisons, as well as a variety of approaches, both to building indicators themselves, and to forming data collection systems that ensure their calculation and comparisons. Considerable scientific and practical interest is the formation of a system of statistical indicators of ICT development, providing multi-level comparability at both country and national levels.
Conclusion. According to the results of a statistical research, Russia’s positions on the accessibility infrastructure characteristics and the use of information and communication technologies are revealed. The country’s lagging behind in terms of the development of both physical and information infrastructure not only from economically developed countries, but also from some BRICS and CIS countries, overcoming of which will make it possible to solve the tasks defined by the Information Society Development Strategy of the country.
SOCIAL STATISTICS
The primary real estate market is one of the youngest segments of the market economy in modern Russia. If the genesis of the modern secondary market was observed in the pre-reform period: barter relations in terms of urban housing, the purchase and sale of suburban areas were freely carried out, small suburban real estate, garage buildings, etc., the real market relations with the relevant legal framework in terms of ownership rights in the primary market became possible only with the change of economic formation. All participants in the rapidly emerging primary real estate market quickly became familiar with pricing, market conditions, utility criteria and many other parameters inherent in this market segment. However, issues of managing business processes on the primary market of real estate, including a balance of opportunities for sellers and customer needs, pricing, adequate information support to all management levels, still are a problem and remain open.
Purpose. The relevance and social need for statistical study of the primary real estate market determined the purpose of scientific work as a clarification of the nature, content, boundaries and participants of the market in order to improve and develop statistical methodology.
Materials and methods. To make the research and form the adequate conclusions when writing a scientific paper, the extensive material of theoretical, methodological and applied nature was used, the authors of which are both domestic and foreign scientists in the field of statistics, management, investment, marketing and technical sciences. The paper uses a wide range of general scientific methods of knowledge, the use of which together allowed to abstract from the non-essential aspects and mutually reinforcing factors that do not ultimately have a tangible impact on the state and dynamics of the primary real estate market - methods of abstraction and idealization; moving from the general laws of the real estate market, to form private conclusions concerning the segments and even objects of the primary real estate market as an object of statistical research – the method of deduction; to comprehend the object as a whole and at the same time as an interconnected mechanism represented by all its structural components – methods of analysis and synthesis; to conduct a comparative analysis of objects and identify possible vectors of the market development – methods of analogy and mental-symbolic modeling.
Results. Qualitative analysis allowed to determine the place and importance of the primary real estate market in the entire system of multi-market economy; to identify the life cycle of the objects of the market and on their basis to structure it; to identify the factors of development of the primary real estate market, quantitative assessment of the impact of which will be subsequently given on the basis of regression analysis; to summarize the set of risks that determine the diverse variation of the primary real estate market. The development of statistical methodology for the study of the primary real estate market can be based only on a clear understanding of the nature and internal content of the studied object. At the same time, so sensitive to the market and general economic situation in the country and each region, the market is constantly changing: it does not have a stationary point. Therefore, it is necessary not only quantitative analysis of the object on the basis of statistical methods, but also continuous monitoring of all economic phenomena that contribute to the modification of the primary real estate market.
Purpose of the study. The introduction of financial discipline rules by the Union of European Football Associations started a new stage in the development of the football industry. According to the UEFA statistical report in 2017, football clubs for the first time reported a total profit of more than 600 million Euros, while a few years earlier the total losses of clubs representing the highest European football divisions were 1.7 billion Euros. This fact indicates a possible change in the investment attractiveness of sports clubs. The purpose of this study is to assess the presence of the investment potential of the football industry as a possible object of capital investment.
Materials and methods. The study analyzed the data obtained from the official statistical sources, including a comparative UEFA report for 2017 on the licensing of clubs “Landscape of European Club Football”, normative legal acts regulating public relations in the field of professional sports, publishing in periodicals and the Internet, illustrating the practice and problems of professional sports development, as well as statistical data from the portals www.stoxx. com and www.investing.com. The study applies such methods of scientific cognition as a method of statistical and economic analysis, comparison, analogies, synthesis, as well as the method of measuring and aggregating data, the graphical and tabular method.
Results of the research. When considering the shares of professional sports clubs as objects of capital investment, it is advisable for investors to pay attention to the functional type of assets that such organizations possess and the degree of diversification of their activities. The structure of non-current assets and the share attributable to tangible assets - sports infrastructure and other objects, is an important factor affecting the specific risks inherent in the activities of sports subjects, which allows to compensate losses incurred as a result of not achieving the goal set for the team for the season due to revenues from other activities that affect the investment attractiveness of the club.
Conclusion. Based on the results, we can draw the following conclusions. The football industry has significant revenue growth potential. The increase in the financial profitability of professional sports subjects is accompanied by a rise in the stock index quotes, which accumulates the shares of European public football clubs. The comparative analysis carried out in the research indicates the attractiveness of these financial instruments as an investment object. However, such investments are characterized by a high degree of risk due to the specificity inherent in the professional sports industry. From the total number of factors affecting the exchange rate fluctuations of football clubs' shares, one can single out the most significant indicators such as the outcome and significance of the match, the nature of the tournament, and the sports (physical) form of the team.
Purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to develop a model of the social comfort of living in the regional hierarchical structure, which allows continuous assessment of this category by monitoring individual indicators as well as combining those with an integral statistical indicator.
Materials and methods. The study utilizes a systematic method to establish a whole set of indicators that are representative enough to adequately characterize social comfort. The informational base includes monographic and scientific literature on the thesis topic, regulatory documents, publications in periodicals and the Internet, documents and materials of international organizations, official statistics of the ROSSTAT (Federal State Statistics Service), methodological provisions on statistics, information and analytical materials of research institutions, specialized reviews by various professional associations, news agencies and companies in Russia and abroad. These materials are sufficient to form an a priori set of indicators of social comfort of living.
Results. The result of applying the proposed hierarchical structure is an effective statistical assessment of the social comfort of living and the empowerment of the population of the regions of Russia to increase their well-being in the long-term perspective in line with rational measures of state regulation. The research materials can be used in the development of target indicators of the strategy of socio-economic development of territories, monitoring the current situation in the field of social comfort of living.
Conclusion. This article proposes an approach to the hierarchical structure of social comfort parameters, which are largely close to the index of living standards and quality of life of the population. However, this index should not be narrowed down only to the monitoring of standard socio-economic indicators. That is why we suggest that it is necessary to extend the Federal Statistical Work Plan of ROSSTAT with the list of the following indicators such as civil liberties, the ratio of work and rest time, surveys of people's satisfaction with life and basic public services which are already being developed in most developed countries, in order to address the subjective element of social comfort.
Purpose of the study. To assess the standard of living of the population of the Tambov region through statistical methods.
Materials and methods. The study used the methods of analysis of the composition and structure, the calculation of absolute and relative indicators of dynamics, average values, comparative analysis, graphical method of analysis, as well as the general theoretical method of analysis of Russian and foreign literary sources. The main information sources for the study were the data from the official website of the Federal State Statistics Service, its territorial office in the Tambov region, as well as the data from the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System. In addition, the works of such authors as R. Zhukov, M. Malkina, N. Zotkina, S. Ignatova, E. Sadovaya, V. Sautkina and others were analyzed.
Results. The main results of the study include the following:
– Over 6 years (from 2012 to 2017) in the Tambov region, the largest share of the population, namely 23.0% in 2012 and 27.1% in 2017, had an average per capita cash income of 15 to 25 thousand rubles;
– In 2012, the average per capita income of a resident of the studied region was most often met for 16,381.5 rubles (fashion value), and in 2017 – 18,561.0 rubles;
– In the Tambov region from 2012 to 2017, the average absolute deviation of the studied indicator from the average in Russia is 5434.1 rubles;
– The purchasing power of money incomes of the population has decreased for almost all food and non-food products; – The main sources of monetary incomes of the population of the Tambov region in 2017 are the wages of employees and receipts from social benefits (their share in the income structure is more than 20%);
– The structure of the budget expenditures of the population of the Tambov region in 2017 is as follows: the purchase of goods and payment for services amounted to 77.5; mandatory payments and fees - 7.7%; real estate purchase - 1.9%; growth of financial assets - 12.9%;
– The size of the average per capita monetary income of the population is inversely related to the unemployment rate of the region.
Conclusion. In general, summing up the study, we can draw the following conclusion. For a number of indicators characterizing the standard of living of the population of the Tambov region, there is a positive trend, for example, an increase in the average per capita cash income of the population. Another positive trend was found: an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and average per capita income. However, despite this, in our region it is lower than the average in Russia. Half of the population has incomes less than 17,730 rubles, and the most common income is in the amount of 18,561 rubles, which is significantly lower than the average for the Tambov region.