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Statistics and Economics

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Vol 15, No 2 (2018)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2018-2

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

4-11 1490
Abstract

Purpose of research. Determine the investment income of the entrepreneur for the land. To substantiate the market value of the  developed land plot with the operating business for tax purposes.

Materials and methods. The basis of the paper is the norms of the
law in appraisal activity; the results of cadastral evaluation of real estate objects in Russian settlements; the method of  comparative analysis of factors determining the market and  cadastral value of real estate objects.

Results. Methodological bases of calculation of market and cadastral
value of built-up land plots of settlements as capitalized rent of non- reproducible factors of market value of a single real estate object are formulated. It is shown that in the theory and practice of  measurement of market and cadastral value of the built-up parcels  of land of settlements of Russia article 3 of the law 135-Federal Law  of 29.07.1998 is violated, in consequence of what, the market and  cadastral value of capital construction in 2–5 times is overestimated,  and the market and cadastral value of parcels of  land in 2–10 times is underestimated. The formula of calculation of  investment profit of the entrepreneur for the land plot is offered.

Conclusion. Regardless of the method (technology) of property valuation, cadastral value of built-up land in a settlement should be determined as the difference between the market value of a  single property and the market value of its improvements, using the  built-up land as analogs. That is, excluding from the value of a single property the value of improvements of the land, we receive the  market value of the built-up land, as “not built-up” clause 20,  Federal Valuation Standard №7.

12-19 747
Abstract

The purpose of research – to build mathematical models that describe interrelationships between the key market indicators,  significant for the Russian economy, and macroeconomic indicators  of the monetary system.

Materials and methods. In this study, we applied methods of model description, mostly used in control theory, meant for technical engineering, such as linear discrete transfer functions, space-state  models and nonlinear Hammerstein-Wiener models. To identify these models, we used System Identification Toolbox from Matlab software package, mostly used for mechanical systems’ analysis. Based on  the known input and output signals, a mathematical model was  estimated. Time series of macroeconomic and market indicators for  the period from January 10, 2008 to January 10, 2018 were used for identification. 

Results. Two prediction models were designed in this work. The first model describes a sequential transfer from the oil price and dollar- to-ruble exchange rate to the gross domestic product, then to M2  and then to loans. Dependencies between economic parameters are  described by linear discrete transfer functions. There is only one difference in the second model’s general structure: the sequence of  the last two transitions from the gross domestic product to loans,  and then to M2. In addition, nonlinear Hammerstein-Wiener models describe last two transitions in the second model. As a result,  predictions for macroeconomic indicators’ trends were given on  different time horizons: three, seven and twelve years and with two  differently directed scenarios of the oil market.

 

The conclusion. Despite close values in the models accuracy estimation, they give similar results for matching scenarios, but  different growth rates in general, in the forecast. Such a result in  scenarios shows, that a sharp fall in oil prices has a stronger impact  on given macroeconomic and market indicators, which, in its turn,  shows the capability of the models to make correct trend predictions. In further studies, it is possible to move from macroeconomic  indicators to their more particular components at meso- and micro levels.

20-29 2959
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The aim of the work is to study the state of
the banking sector of the country based on the analysis of the main indicators, characterizing banking activity in modern  conditions, studying the main factors, affecting the financial result of banks. An important direction in analyzing the banking sector is to  determine its reliability and sustainability. Reliability, stability of the  country’s banking system is largely determined by the financial  performance of banks. In the paper, the main tendencies of  development of the banking sector are considered, based on  economic and statistical methods the analysis of its financial state is  carried out. The work is based on dynamic, structural, factor analysis of analytical and statistical information about the processes, taking place in this field.

Materials and methods. Information base of the research is statistical data and analytical information reflecting the financial  activity of the banking sector. The methodological basis for the study is statistical methods of data analysis: comparative and structural  analysis, dynamics, and correlation-regression analysis.

Results. The main indicators of the bank resource base and efficiency of its use are considered. The main trends of changes in  the structure of bank liabilities and assets are analyzed, and the  analysis of the ratios of loans and deposits is given. Financial  analysis of the state of the banking sector involves studying factors  that affect the activities of banking institutions. It is important not  only to determine the factors themselves, but also the degree of  their impact on the results of the bank’s work. For this purpose, the  paper used correlation-regression analysis, on the basis of which the main factors that influenced the financial result of the banking  system in 2016 were studied.

Сonclusion. The analsis showed that customers borrow the largest share in the structure of the passive base of the Russian banking sector. For the period, considered in the paper, deposits of  individuals and corporate clients increased. The share of loans and  deposits received from the Bank of Russia declined, while the share  of loans and deposits received from other credit institutions grew at  the same time. Thus, in the structure of liabilities, the funds of the Bank of Russia are replaced by other, market sources. As a positive  trend, we can note the growth of profits and funds of credit  institutions in the liabilities of the banking sector. The main direction  of using banking assets is lending to the economy. In the structure  of assets, the share of loans and other loans was about 70%. In  2016, the volume of loans granted to the economy as a whole,  decreased  by 3%. Overall, for the period under review, the total  revenues of the banking sector decreased by 4.9%. The main factor  in reducing revenues was their significant reduction from operations  with foreign currency. The correlation-regression analysis of the  factors influencing the formation of the profit of the banking sector  showed that the most significant value is the volume of loans.  Quantitative measurement of the influence of this factor is the basis  for further analysis of the financial sector of the economy,  construction of forecast calculations.

SOCIAL STATISTICS

30-37 1160
Abstract

The article includes the observation of the cluster analysis of medical
data on the example of the cardiac data. One of the main effective and commonly used Data Mining methods that applied to  the large amounts of information (for example, mathematical  economics) are clustering methods: the search for signs of similarity  between objects in the study of the subject area and the subsequent merger of objects into subsets (clusters) according to the established affinity. The main purpose of the investigation is to examine the  hypothesis of the possibility of diagnosing the patient health status,  as well as identifying his pathologies, using the analysis of  electrocardiogram (ECG) series and the allocation of similar clusters  based on the results of this analysis. However, the subject of  clustering techniques implementation to the ECG on the grounds of  similarity of forms have not previously been extensively investigated. In the model of the heart, which is used in this study,  the state of the heart is taken as a fixed oscillatory process of the  phenomenon of the FPU auto-return. But, on the other hand, since  the heart is an self-oscillating system and it has no need to start the  oscillations by obtaining the energy of “perturbation”, the concept of  FPU autoreturn is introduced in the study of the heart. The  mathematical modeling of the heart work by using a decomposition of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) was investigated. The formal description of the mathematical model of the heart as a system of connected cells myocytes is presented. This represents a  single oscillatory degree of freedom described by a  system of coupled nonlinear differential equations of the second  order equation of Van der Pol. Cluster analysis bases on the search  of similar clusters of Fourier spectrum which are received by FPU  recurrence. The current results that are obtained show that the  hypothesis is confirmed. In mathematical modeling of the FPU heart  modeling, which is based on the forms of Fourier spectra, were  identified. Subsets were identified, among which various subsets of  both forms of Fourier spectra with pathologies and forms of the  Fourier spectrum of healthy people were formed. From this study it  follows that the cluster analysis of the electrocardiogram may refer this ECG to any cluster and thereby diagnose the state of  cardiac health of the patient.

38-48 1033
Abstract

Present task in providing regional economy with necessary experts
in planning and forecasting of social and economic development is creation of a technique of assessment and monitoring of  educational potential of the population. The statistical data,  characterizing the demographic structure of the young population of  Russia are provided in the paper, regional distinctions from the point  of view of the generation groups are revealed. On this basis the  rating of regions of Russia is calculated, the main valuable and  business characteristics of generational and age groups are  considered and compared. Areas of concern for which the rational  use of generational approach are revealed and the corresponding  recommendations are offered.

The purpose of this paper is opportunities’ justification of applying
the methodology of rating regions in terms of level of the saved-up educational potential by the younger generations to identify and predict the dynamics of qualitative characteristics of labor, as well as the prospects of its use for the management of the  regional development.

The methodological basis of the presented paper consists of comparative, economic, statistical and social-cultural methods of  analysis. The space-time base of the results of population censuses  in Russia in 2002 and 2010 by territorial regions of the Russian  Federation, characterizing generational and age structure of youth by the level of the achieved education was collected and statistically  processed for the research. As the part of the presentation of this  paper, the authors proposed an algorithm for comparative analysis of the educational potential of young people by regions of the Russian  Federation and a typological grouping was carried out. The value of  regional differences in regions in terms of the educational potential of young generations is showed in the growing role of in-country  migration of the population, as evidenced by the spatial relationship  with the level of development of the system of higher professional  education in the observed period.

Conclusion. The proposed approach and research results can be useful for analysis and planning of social and economic development  of regions by various state bodies at the Federal and regional levels,  as well as by private investors.

STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS

49-58 1242
Abstract

The majority of Russian enterprises have problems with updating their production assets and therefore are in dire need of  investments. A huge role in the investment attractiveness of  enterprises is provided by its corporate governance system. The lack of a well-developed stock market in Russia is not the last problem  pushing investors away. The purpose of this work is to develop a  mathematical model for assessing the effectiveness of corporate  governance of the enterprise to make a decision on foreign  investment in the oil industry corporation. In the sources available  for analysis, insufficient attention is paid to the analysis and  development of methods for assessing the effectiveness of corporate governance when deciding on the external investment of the  corporation. In order to make a decision of a potential investor to  invest in a company, the investor must have an idea of the activities  of the company and its economic and financial indicators. The  system of performance indicators of the corporation’s personnel, which affect its value, has a poorly structured structure.  To solve the problems of weakly structured systems it is necessary  to use fuzzy logic methods. These methods allow making qualitative  assessment of activity of the enterprise and its administrative  personnel, giving the chance to define level of management of the  enterprise and quality of performers of work. Existing models of  corporate governance performance assessment borrowed from  abroad are not effective in Russia. The level of corporate governance in the company is determined using ratings from the major rating  agencies such as S&P, RBC, EXPERT RA, CORE rating. But for this  method of measurement, there is one important condition: the estimated company must be included in the lists of these  agencies in order to monitor and analyze its corporate governance.  However, often in Russia, not all companies are included in the list of rating agencies, especially if these companies belong to medium- sized businesses. In the paper the model of corporate governance  efficiency evaluation is presented in the form of a system of  components, each of which is formed from economic indicators,  taking into account both the economic characteristics of the  enterprise and the qualitative composition of its personnel and not  tied to the quotes of the company’s shares in the stock markets. This model is built with the help of the method of fuzzy logic, which  allows combining quantitative and qualitative indicators. Using the  theory of fuzzy sets, the difference in the values of the initial  indicators is eliminated when assessing the level of efficiency of  corporate governance, and through operations on linguistic variables, the core component of the corporate governance level is combined. With the help of productive rules of fuzzy logic, the  numerical components of the level of efficiency of corporate  governance are given to fuzzy form. The developed model of  decision-making of a potential investor about investing in an  enterprise, based on the calculation of the assessment of the level of efficiency of its corporate governance, shows the potential investor  the level of economic and financial management of the enterprise,  the quality of management and working staff of the enterprise,  promotes the decision on the feasibility of investing in corporations.

59-68 723
Abstract

The aim of the work is to study the problem of optimizing energy consumption and practical application of methods for  improving energy efficiency in the housing sector. Optimization of  energy efficiency management allows to reduce the expenditure of  energy resources in the performance of various works, heating of buildings, etc. The creation of optimization methods will make it  possible to reduce payments for utilities in a short time, and in  general for the industry, will help reduce the consumption of various  resources and improve the ecological state of the region. Unlike  other approaches, the emphasis in this paper is on the convenience  and simplicity necessary for using this technique by the population in households. The proposed integrated approach uses methods of  probability theory, linear programming, heat exchange models. The  conducted research confirms the effectiveness of the solution  obtained and can serve as a basis for the creation of training and  research stands. The article consists of two parts: the first part  analyzes the leading works in this field and identifies the reasons  that make it difficult to apply the solutions proposed in these papers. Further, the statement of the problem was proposed and justified,  and a number of basic requirements to the mathematical model of  energy consumption, necessary for the constructed technique to be  used to optimize energy consumption in households, were  formulated. In the second part, a mathematical model of their  functioning is proposed using examples of specific household  electrical appliances. When researching existing methods for  optimizing energy consumption in households, problems were  identified that were difficult to apply these methods in practice and  recommendations were obtained that allowed to formulate the basic  principles of constructing an optimization technique that was  convenient for practical application. It was shown that when  constructing such a technique, the primary question is the data that  the user can provide. The minimum composition of input data was  determined, according to which the necessary algorithms for  optimizing energy consumption were designed. A number of  algorithms for determining some input indicators that are easy to use in households have also been proposed. Thus, the general plan of research in this paper is as follows:

• carry out grouping of devices by the way of setting functional
requirements;
• determine the acceptable composition and type of input data for
the user;
• define the minimum set of input data for formalizing the limitation
of the total power consumption;
• design optimization algorithms that work with the input data
specified above. The most important results of the work performed are the following:
• the methodology for forecasting the graph of the maximum total
power consumption has been developed.
• methods for optimizing energy consumption for each of the selected subsets of household appliances have been developed.
• the optimization algorithms obtained have been simulated, which showed their operability, efficiency and the possibility of their practical application without any adaptation.
Thus, the article proposes the solution of the problem of optimization of energy consumption in the housing sector, oriented to practical application.

69-79 868
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The purpose of the scientific paper is the formation of a model of managing the economy of municipality  through aggregation and prototyping in conditions of lability and  robustness of changes. As part of the stated goal, the author is  supposed to conduct the economy prototyping of the municipality  based on built-in management platforms; to form an adapted risk  assessment model in the implementation of smart-project; to  propose an aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy.

Materials and methods. While writing a scientific article, the methods of situational and simulation modeling, approximation and grouping of specific elements of the structural  object, and the process of algorithmization of functional processes  are used. Particular emphasis in this paper is made on the  methodological apparatus, which allows drawing conclusions based  on subjective author’s opinion, to take into account external changes in the system under study. These methodological approaches  include entropy of scientific knowledge, aberration, approximation, robustness.

 

Results. Within the framework of the conducted research the following conclusions are formed: the municipal economy is in the  process of transformation, it is possible to obtain positive changes  with the help of prototyping the model of municipality; smart- projects as the basis of the economy of the municipality are subject  to robustness and lability of changes, provoking negative risks;  game theory is a rather important tool, used in the context of the  definition of the riskiness of the smart-project the aggregated model  for assessing the development of the economy of the municipality  makes it possible to formulate certain premises of the Smart City  concept in municipalities. 

Conclusion. For the effective development  of municipalities, it is necessary to transform the economies towards the formation of  municipality based on using prototyping and aggregation tools in  conditions of lability and robustness of the changes. Presented in the scientific paper, the aspect of aggregation and prototyping of the  economy of the municipal formation is the initial stage in the  development of the concept of management of the Smart Economy  of the municipal formation. The transformation of municipal  economies regulates the need for a new tool for the development of  these territories. The author of the scientific article proposes to use  the adapted model of risk assessment of Smart-design based on  game theory and the aggregated model for assessing the  development of the economy of a municipal formation. The adapted  model of risk assessment of Smart-design on the ground of the  theory of games is based on the use of the Bayes criterion, Wald’s  maximin criterion, the Savage decision-making criterion, the Hurwitz  stability criterion, the Hodges-Lehmann criterion. The  selected criteria contribute to the definition of the least risky Smart- project with the aim of its implementation in the municipal economy. The aggregated model for assessing the economy development of  the municipal entity projects the regression parameter data algorithm – Constructive Coste Model (COCOMO) on the basis of which a conclusion is given about the level of the economy  development of the municipal formation. In the future, simulation  models of economic management can supplement this study in  conditions of the prevalence of knowledge and intelligence, as well  as methods for assessing the quality of urban technological infrastructure.

80-88 890
Abstract

The regular socio-economic monitoring studies are really essential
with the purpose of development of an effective system for housing development sector support at the state level and of account of the diversity of factors, which impact the change of housing  conditions of population. With this purpose, the authors performed  benchmarking statistical analysis of the state and trends in the  development of housing construction and housing provision in  various regions of Russia, taking into account the availability of  housing and the degree of tension in the housing and social sphere,  as well as the opportunities, which are provided for the population to settle the housing issue through property lending The economic  crisis could not relieve the "housing problem" for Russians, but only  gave rise to housing deferred demand. Therefore, the researches are still timely of the housing policy development directions and of the  solution of the housing problems, as well as of the housing lending  system. In addition to solving the population housing affordability  problem, the intensification of property lending policy directly affects the of new housing supply index of various degree of conventions.  This is achieved through engaging of significant amounts of money  by the population. The subject of the research is a set of indices of  the conditions and of level of development of housing construction and related property lending. The information base of the research is the official data of the Federal State Statistics Service, of the Bank of Russia, as well as the materials of scientific publications and  periodicals on the subject Statistical methods for identifying the  trends and the cycles, for study of economic conditions and business activity, for analysis of structural breaks, for time series forecasting,  as well as the tabular and graphical methods for visual  representation of data are used as the main statistical tools. In  accordance with the aim, the authors set and solved the tasks  as  follows: 

– the main features, problems and trends are specified in  the development of housing constructions in the Russian Federation  and its subjects;

– regional differentiation is estimated in the level of housing provision of population and in the changes in its living conditions,  taking into account the impact of crisis phenomena;

– the intensity and directions are determined the of structural changes in the regional distribution of the total volume of housing;

– the groups of the Russian regions are revealed, which are differed by the main characteristics of housing conditions of the population and by the scale and activity of housing construction;

– the factors and criteria are considered of efficiency of housing property lending and a role of regional banks in this process;

– the main problems are revealed, which constrain lending development in Russia.
The results of the research are of practical importance for the Federal State Statistics Service in the course of monitoring of the  state of the housing complex at the regional level, as well as for  regional economic agencies in the development of programs for  support and development of the housing construction sector.

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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)