ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Purpose of research. Determine the investment income of the entrepreneur for the land. To substantiate the market value of the developed land plot with the operating business for tax purposes.
Materials and methods. The basis of the paper is the norms of the
law in appraisal activity; the results of cadastral evaluation of real estate objects in Russian settlements; the method of comparative analysis of factors determining the market and cadastral value of real estate objects.
Results. Methodological bases of calculation of market and cadastral
value of built-up land plots of settlements as capitalized rent of non- reproducible factors of market value of a single real estate object are formulated. It is shown that in the theory and practice of measurement of market and cadastral value of the built-up parcels of land of settlements of Russia article 3 of the law 135-Federal Law of 29.07.1998 is violated, in consequence of what, the market and cadastral value of capital construction in 2–5 times is overestimated, and the market and cadastral value of parcels of land in 2–10 times is underestimated. The formula of calculation of investment profit of the entrepreneur for the land plot is offered.
Conclusion. Regardless of the method (technology) of property valuation, cadastral value of built-up land in a settlement should be determined as the difference between the market value of a single property and the market value of its improvements, using the built-up land as analogs. That is, excluding from the value of a single property the value of improvements of the land, we receive the market value of the built-up land, as “not built-up” clause 20, Federal Valuation Standard №7.
The purpose of research – to build mathematical models that describe interrelationships between the key market indicators, significant for the Russian economy, and macroeconomic indicators of the monetary system.
Materials and methods. In this study, we applied methods of model description, mostly used in control theory, meant for technical engineering, such as linear discrete transfer functions, space-state models and nonlinear Hammerstein-Wiener models. To identify these models, we used System Identification Toolbox from Matlab software package, mostly used for mechanical systems’ analysis. Based on the known input and output signals, a mathematical model was estimated. Time series of macroeconomic and market indicators for the period from January 10, 2008 to January 10, 2018 were used for identification.
Results. Two prediction models were designed in this work. The first model describes a sequential transfer from the oil price and dollar- to-ruble exchange rate to the gross domestic product, then to M2 and then to loans. Dependencies between economic parameters are described by linear discrete transfer functions. There is only one difference in the second model’s general structure: the sequence of the last two transitions from the gross domestic product to loans, and then to M2. In addition, nonlinear Hammerstein-Wiener models describe last two transitions in the second model. As a result, predictions for macroeconomic indicators’ trends were given on different time horizons: three, seven and twelve years and with two differently directed scenarios of the oil market.
The conclusion. Despite close values in the models accuracy estimation, they give similar results for matching scenarios, but different growth rates in general, in the forecast. Such a result in scenarios shows, that a sharp fall in oil prices has a stronger impact on given macroeconomic and market indicators, which, in its turn, shows the capability of the models to make correct trend predictions. In further studies, it is possible to move from macroeconomic indicators to their more particular components at meso- and micro levels.
Purpose of the study. The aim of the work is to study the state of
the banking sector of the country based on the analysis of the main indicators, characterizing banking activity in modern conditions, studying the main factors, affecting the financial result of banks. An important direction in analyzing the banking sector is to determine its reliability and sustainability. Reliability, stability of the country’s banking system is largely determined by the financial performance of banks. In the paper, the main tendencies of development of the banking sector are considered, based on economic and statistical methods the analysis of its financial state is carried out. The work is based on dynamic, structural, factor analysis of analytical and statistical information about the processes, taking place in this field.
Materials and methods. Information base of the research is statistical data and analytical information reflecting the financial activity of the banking sector. The methodological basis for the study is statistical methods of data analysis: comparative and structural analysis, dynamics, and correlation-regression analysis.
Results. The main indicators of the bank resource base and efficiency of its use are considered. The main trends of changes in the structure of bank liabilities and assets are analyzed, and the analysis of the ratios of loans and deposits is given. Financial analysis of the state of the banking sector involves studying factors that affect the activities of banking institutions. It is important not only to determine the factors themselves, but also the degree of their impact on the results of the bank’s work. For this purpose, the paper used correlation-regression analysis, on the basis of which the main factors that influenced the financial result of the banking system in 2016 were studied.
Сonclusion. The analsis showed that customers borrow the largest share in the structure of the passive base of the Russian banking sector. For the period, considered in the paper, deposits of individuals and corporate clients increased. The share of loans and deposits received from the Bank of Russia declined, while the share of loans and deposits received from other credit institutions grew at the same time. Thus, in the structure of liabilities, the funds of the Bank of Russia are replaced by other, market sources. As a positive trend, we can note the growth of profits and funds of credit institutions in the liabilities of the banking sector. The main direction of using banking assets is lending to the economy. In the structure of assets, the share of loans and other loans was about 70%. In 2016, the volume of loans granted to the economy as a whole, decreased by 3%. Overall, for the period under review, the total revenues of the banking sector decreased by 4.9%. The main factor in reducing revenues was their significant reduction from operations with foreign currency. The correlation-regression analysis of the factors influencing the formation of the profit of the banking sector showed that the most significant value is the volume of loans. Quantitative measurement of the influence of this factor is the basis for further analysis of the financial sector of the economy, construction of forecast calculations.
SOCIAL STATISTICS
The article includes the observation of the cluster analysis of medical
data on the example of the cardiac data. One of the main effective and commonly used Data Mining methods that applied to the large amounts of information (for example, mathematical economics) are clustering methods: the search for signs of similarity between objects in the study of the subject area and the subsequent merger of objects into subsets (clusters) according to the established affinity. The main purpose of the investigation is to examine the hypothesis of the possibility of diagnosing the patient health status, as well as identifying his pathologies, using the analysis of electrocardiogram (ECG) series and the allocation of similar clusters based on the results of this analysis. However, the subject of clustering techniques implementation to the ECG on the grounds of similarity of forms have not previously been extensively investigated. In the model of the heart, which is used in this study, the state of the heart is taken as a fixed oscillatory process of the phenomenon of the FPU auto-return. But, on the other hand, since the heart is an self-oscillating system and it has no need to start the oscillations by obtaining the energy of “perturbation”, the concept of FPU autoreturn is introduced in the study of the heart. The mathematical modeling of the heart work by using a decomposition of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam (FPU) was investigated. The formal description of the mathematical model of the heart as a system of connected cells myocytes is presented. This represents a single oscillatory degree of freedom described by a system of coupled nonlinear differential equations of the second order equation of Van der Pol. Cluster analysis bases on the search of similar clusters of Fourier spectrum which are received by FPU recurrence. The current results that are obtained show that the hypothesis is confirmed. In mathematical modeling of the FPU heart modeling, which is based on the forms of Fourier spectra, were identified. Subsets were identified, among which various subsets of both forms of Fourier spectra with pathologies and forms of the Fourier spectrum of healthy people were formed. From this study it follows that the cluster analysis of the electrocardiogram may refer this ECG to any cluster and thereby diagnose the state of cardiac health of the patient.
Present task in providing regional economy with necessary experts
in planning and forecasting of social and economic development is creation of a technique of assessment and monitoring of educational potential of the population. The statistical data, characterizing the demographic structure of the young population of Russia are provided in the paper, regional distinctions from the point of view of the generation groups are revealed. On this basis the rating of regions of Russia is calculated, the main valuable and business characteristics of generational and age groups are considered and compared. Areas of concern for which the rational use of generational approach are revealed and the corresponding recommendations are offered.
The purpose of this paper is opportunities’ justification of applying
the methodology of rating regions in terms of level of the saved-up educational potential by the younger generations to identify and predict the dynamics of qualitative characteristics of labor, as well as the prospects of its use for the management of the regional development.
The methodological basis of the presented paper consists of comparative, economic, statistical and social-cultural methods of analysis. The space-time base of the results of population censuses in Russia in 2002 and 2010 by territorial regions of the Russian Federation, characterizing generational and age structure of youth by the level of the achieved education was collected and statistically processed for the research. As the part of the presentation of this paper, the authors proposed an algorithm for comparative analysis of the educational potential of young people by regions of the Russian Federation and a typological grouping was carried out. The value of regional differences in regions in terms of the educational potential of young generations is showed in the growing role of in-country migration of the population, as evidenced by the spatial relationship with the level of development of the system of higher professional education in the observed period.
Conclusion. The proposed approach and research results can be useful for analysis and planning of social and economic development of regions by various state bodies at the Federal and regional levels, as well as by private investors.
STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS
The majority of Russian enterprises have problems with updating their production assets and therefore are in dire need of investments. A huge role in the investment attractiveness of enterprises is provided by its corporate governance system. The lack of a well-developed stock market in Russia is not the last problem pushing investors away. The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model for assessing the effectiveness of corporate governance of the enterprise to make a decision on foreign investment in the oil industry corporation. In the sources available for analysis, insufficient attention is paid to the analysis and development of methods for assessing the effectiveness of corporate governance when deciding on the external investment of the corporation. In order to make a decision of a potential investor to invest in a company, the investor must have an idea of the activities of the company and its economic and financial indicators. The system of performance indicators of the corporation’s personnel, which affect its value, has a poorly structured structure. To solve the problems of weakly structured systems it is necessary to use fuzzy logic methods. These methods allow making qualitative assessment of activity of the enterprise and its administrative personnel, giving the chance to define level of management of the enterprise and quality of performers of work. Existing models of corporate governance performance assessment borrowed from abroad are not effective in Russia. The level of corporate governance in the company is determined using ratings from the major rating agencies such as S&P, RBC, EXPERT RA, CORE rating. But for this method of measurement, there is one important condition: the estimated company must be included in the lists of these agencies in order to monitor and analyze its corporate governance. However, often in Russia, not all companies are included in the list of rating agencies, especially if these companies belong to medium- sized businesses. In the paper the model of corporate governance efficiency evaluation is presented in the form of a system of components, each of which is formed from economic indicators, taking into account both the economic characteristics of the enterprise and the qualitative composition of its personnel and not tied to the quotes of the company’s shares in the stock markets. This model is built with the help of the method of fuzzy logic, which allows combining quantitative and qualitative indicators. Using the theory of fuzzy sets, the difference in the values of the initial indicators is eliminated when assessing the level of efficiency of corporate governance, and through operations on linguistic variables, the core component of the corporate governance level is combined. With the help of productive rules of fuzzy logic, the numerical components of the level of efficiency of corporate governance are given to fuzzy form. The developed model of decision-making of a potential investor about investing in an enterprise, based on the calculation of the assessment of the level of efficiency of its corporate governance, shows the potential investor the level of economic and financial management of the enterprise, the quality of management and working staff of the enterprise, promotes the decision on the feasibility of investing in corporations.
The aim of the work is to study the problem of optimizing energy consumption and practical application of methods for improving energy efficiency in the housing sector. Optimization of energy efficiency management allows to reduce the expenditure of energy resources in the performance of various works, heating of buildings, etc. The creation of optimization methods will make it possible to reduce payments for utilities in a short time, and in general for the industry, will help reduce the consumption of various resources and improve the ecological state of the region. Unlike other approaches, the emphasis in this paper is on the convenience and simplicity necessary for using this technique by the population in households. The proposed integrated approach uses methods of probability theory, linear programming, heat exchange models. The conducted research confirms the effectiveness of the solution obtained and can serve as a basis for the creation of training and research stands. The article consists of two parts: the first part analyzes the leading works in this field and identifies the reasons that make it difficult to apply the solutions proposed in these papers. Further, the statement of the problem was proposed and justified, and a number of basic requirements to the mathematical model of energy consumption, necessary for the constructed technique to be used to optimize energy consumption in households, were formulated. In the second part, a mathematical model of their functioning is proposed using examples of specific household electrical appliances. When researching existing methods for optimizing energy consumption in households, problems were identified that were difficult to apply these methods in practice and recommendations were obtained that allowed to formulate the basic principles of constructing an optimization technique that was convenient for practical application. It was shown that when constructing such a technique, the primary question is the data that the user can provide. The minimum composition of input data was determined, according to which the necessary algorithms for optimizing energy consumption were designed. A number of algorithms for determining some input indicators that are easy to use in households have also been proposed. Thus, the general plan of research in this paper is as follows:
• carry out grouping of devices by the way of setting functional
requirements;
• determine the acceptable composition and type of input data for
the user;
• define the minimum set of input data for formalizing the limitation
of the total power consumption;
• design optimization algorithms that work with the input data
specified above. The most important results of the work performed are the following:
• the methodology for forecasting the graph of the maximum total
power consumption has been developed.
• methods for optimizing energy consumption for each of the selected subsets of household appliances have been developed.
• the optimization algorithms obtained have been simulated, which showed their operability, efficiency and the possibility of their practical application without any adaptation.
Thus, the article proposes the solution of the problem of optimization of energy consumption in the housing sector, oriented to practical application.
Purpose of the study. The purpose of the scientific paper is the formation of a model of managing the economy of municipality through aggregation and prototyping in conditions of lability and robustness of changes. As part of the stated goal, the author is supposed to conduct the economy prototyping of the municipality based on built-in management platforms; to form an adapted risk assessment model in the implementation of smart-project; to propose an aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy.
Materials and methods. While writing a scientific article, the methods of situational and simulation modeling, approximation and grouping of specific elements of the structural object, and the process of algorithmization of functional processes are used. Particular emphasis in this paper is made on the methodological apparatus, which allows drawing conclusions based on subjective author’s opinion, to take into account external changes in the system under study. These methodological approaches include entropy of scientific knowledge, aberration, approximation, robustness.
Results. Within the framework of the conducted research the following conclusions are formed: the municipal economy is in the process of transformation, it is possible to obtain positive changes with the help of prototyping the model of municipality; smart- projects as the basis of the economy of the municipality are subject to robustness and lability of changes, provoking negative risks; game theory is a rather important tool, used in the context of the definition of the riskiness of the smart-project the aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy of the municipality makes it possible to formulate certain premises of the Smart City concept in municipalities.
Conclusion. For the effective development of municipalities, it is necessary to transform the economies towards the formation of municipality based on using prototyping and aggregation tools in conditions of lability and robustness of the changes. Presented in the scientific paper, the aspect of aggregation and prototyping of the economy of the municipal formation is the initial stage in the development of the concept of management of the Smart Economy of the municipal formation. The transformation of municipal economies regulates the need for a new tool for the development of these territories. The author of the scientific article proposes to use the adapted model of risk assessment of Smart-design based on game theory and the aggregated model for assessing the development of the economy of a municipal formation. The adapted model of risk assessment of Smart-design on the ground of the theory of games is based on the use of the Bayes criterion, Wald’s maximin criterion, the Savage decision-making criterion, the Hurwitz stability criterion, the Hodges-Lehmann criterion. The selected criteria contribute to the definition of the least risky Smart- project with the aim of its implementation in the municipal economy. The aggregated model for assessing the economy development of the municipal entity projects the regression parameter data algorithm – Constructive Coste Model (COCOMO) on the basis of which a conclusion is given about the level of the economy development of the municipal formation. In the future, simulation models of economic management can supplement this study in conditions of the prevalence of knowledge and intelligence, as well as methods for assessing the quality of urban technological infrastructure.
The regular socio-economic monitoring studies are really essential
with the purpose of development of an effective system for housing development sector support at the state level and of account of the diversity of factors, which impact the change of housing conditions of population. With this purpose, the authors performed benchmarking statistical analysis of the state and trends in the development of housing construction and housing provision in various regions of Russia, taking into account the availability of housing and the degree of tension in the housing and social sphere, as well as the opportunities, which are provided for the population to settle the housing issue through property lending The economic crisis could not relieve the "housing problem" for Russians, but only gave rise to housing deferred demand. Therefore, the researches are still timely of the housing policy development directions and of the solution of the housing problems, as well as of the housing lending system. In addition to solving the population housing affordability problem, the intensification of property lending policy directly affects the of new housing supply index of various degree of conventions. This is achieved through engaging of significant amounts of money by the population. The subject of the research is a set of indices of the conditions and of level of development of housing construction and related property lending. The information base of the research is the official data of the Federal State Statistics Service, of the Bank of Russia, as well as the materials of scientific publications and periodicals on the subject Statistical methods for identifying the trends and the cycles, for study of economic conditions and business activity, for analysis of structural breaks, for time series forecasting, as well as the tabular and graphical methods for visual representation of data are used as the main statistical tools. In accordance with the aim, the authors set and solved the tasks as follows:
– the main features, problems and trends are specified in the development of housing constructions in the Russian Federation and its subjects;
– regional differentiation is estimated in the level of housing provision of population and in the changes in its living conditions, taking into account the impact of crisis phenomena;
– the intensity and directions are determined the of structural changes in the regional distribution of the total volume of housing;
– the groups of the Russian regions are revealed, which are differed by the main characteristics of housing conditions of the population and by the scale and activity of housing construction;
– the factors and criteria are considered of efficiency of housing property lending and a role of regional banks in this process;
– the main problems are revealed, which constrain lending development in Russia.
The results of the research are of practical importance for the Federal State Statistics Service in the course of monitoring of the state of the housing complex at the regional level, as well as for regional economic agencies in the development of programs for support and development of the housing construction sector.