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Statistics and Economics

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Vol 15, No 6 (2018)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2018-6

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

4-14 1022
Abstract

Economic security, following the physical protection and security rapidly broke into the life of modern domestic society. This is a huge, very theoretically capacious section of the management system and at the same time a variety of practical activities. As the state of any economic system, characterized by the ability to withstand any negative encroachment from any subject, institution, other systems, social environment, etc., both economic and financial security is estimated, in fact, a polygamous system of indicators on all aspects of financial and economic activity.

Purpose: therefore, the purpose of this scientific work, defined as the improvement of information support structures, decision-making in relation to economic security, fully meets the needs of management science and practice.

Materials and methods: At the same time, all the methods, necessary for the statistical study of economic and financial security are used in the work: at each stage, an extensive block of statistical tools is involved, represented by the methods of the general theory of statistics and mathematical statistics, including multidimensional groups – cluster analysis, correlation and regression methods. The official materials of the state statistics and Internal Affairs Bodies of the Russian Federation, as well as the official statistics of the Ministry of Economy and Finance of Moscow Region Government were used to perform practical calculations.

Results: A key aspect of this research work is related to the selection and formation of a set of statistical indicators, which in the interconnection and addition gave a complete comprehensive picture of the existing relationships and established patterns. These are demographic and resource indicators, and the results and efficiency of the economic complex. The use of the designated statistical tools allowed obtaining such results as justification of analytical capabilities and approbation of statistical methods in the study of economic security of the Moscow region; formation of clusters, consisting of homogeneous municipal districts of the Moscow region, designated as clustering units; calculation of relative analytical indicators; construction and interpretation of regression models.

Conclusion: the complex of the obtained results and conclusions, as well as the scientifically based algorithm of statistical tools application, tested in the work, are undoubtedly an important information component in the management of economic and financial security not only in the Moscow region, but also in any region, both in the Central Federal district and in the whole central Russia.

15-25 1567
Abstract

Article retracted

The difficulty in accessing loans is one of the major barriers to the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. Low accessibility to capital forces SMEs to spend both official and unofficial costs in order to obtain loans, and/or to access the unofficial market at higher interest rates, thereby increasing cost of production of enterprises. Studies suggest that the determinants of bank loan processing through which small and medium enterprises can access official loans include: characteristics of enterprises; indicators, reflecting the performance of enterprises; characteristics of loans; characteristics of enterprises, enterprise owners; geographical position of enterprises; the creditworthiness of enterprises and the role of the network.

Purpose of the study. The aim of this paper is the quantitative analysis of the factors, affecting accessibility to credit capital of small and medium enterprises in Vietnam.

Materials and methods. This study was conducted on the basis of a survey in December 2017. The survey includes 301 enterprises in Hanoi city. Selected enterprises are also enterprises, surveyed in the annual enterprise survey by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. This paper uses the Probit and Logit regression approach to estimate the impact of factors, affecting the disbursement probability of a loan of an enterprise. The number of SMEs accounts for 56.69% of the samples. The number of enterprises, applying for a bank loan accounts for 58.4% of the total samples, of which the percentage of disbursed loans for SMEs accounts for only 47.3%. For enterprises without a bank loan, eliminating the reasons for the lack of demand and unwish to be in debt, the main reasons not to access bank loans are high interest rates, complicated loan procedures and insufficient collateral.

Results. The results obtained from the Logistic and Probit models show that the estimated coefficients are statistically significant, affecting the probability of taking a business loan, accepted by financial institutions. Although the coefficients, estimated from Logistics model are larger than those estimated from the Probit model, the estimated results show that the direction of impact of the variables in two estimation techniques gives quite similar results.

Conclusion. Based on the results of this study, the Government of Vietnam should implement policies to support SMEs in the direction of improving their access to capital. The credit institutions should design products and services suitable to the characteristics of SMEs in Vietnam.

SOCIAL STATISTICS

26-35 1372
Abstract

Purpose of the research. The research of influence of the system of professional education on parameters of development of digital economy in Russian Federation regions can be conducted in different directions: identification of the professional education system status as the institute, providing the digital economy of the region with human resources; to identify the needs of the separate industries of economy for the specialists, having the corresponding competences for the work in the field of the digital economy. The purpose of this research is justification of the mathematical model, allowing creating evidential basic statistical sampling for the evaluation of the levels of mastering digital competences by lecturers of educational institutions of professional education.

Materials and methods. In this work the estimation methods, based on soft computing is offered. This approach allows correlating a quality indicator of mastering digital competences and quantitative category, to create basic statistical sampling for the analysis of personnel potential in the field of professional education and assessment of digital competences development in the explored area. The competence-based approach is used for the assessment of readiness of lecturers of the professional education system to carry out the professional activity, aimed at providing development of digital economy of the region. The received values of levels of mastering different digital competences are aggregated on each indicator of a linguistic variable in summary values, which can be used as basic statistical sampling.

Results. On the basis of this model statistical analysis of the human resources of the region in the aspect of formation of knowledge and abilities in the field of information and computer technologies can be carried out. This model can be used for information processing about testing of different groups: pedagogical employees, public and municipal officers. The results will allow to diagnose an initial status of levels of mastering digital competences of the employees of the regional industry or the studied organization and to carry out monitoring of development of human resources of the region within the Digital Economy project. Statistically the data obtained on the basis of the offered model are well interpreted with the use of standard graphic means (for example, diagrams and histograms).

Conclusion. The developed mathematical model is tested on the basis of real data and accepted as the basic one for evaluating the level of mastering digital competences of lecturers by the Ministry of Education and Youth Policy of the Ryazan region. The offered model has characteristic of universality and can be applied to receive basic statistical samplings of the level of mastering digital competences of areas of the real sector of economy. Further researches are planned to be conducted in the sphere of automation of process of the statistical data analysis on digitalization of the population of the region, first of all in the sphere of professional education. On the basis of the mathematical model the algorithm of analytical processing of statistical data on monitoring of digital competences is developed.

36-45 1828
Abstract

Purpose of research. The article describes an approach to assessing the quality of education at universities. Innovative processes in higher education increase the requirements to the quality assurance system for bachelors, masters, specialists and postgraduates. Such a system includes not only educational processes, but also the results of the quality of education. This problem is relevant because the quality of students’ training influences the formation of professional competencies and the demand on the labor market directly. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology for assessing the quality of training for different groups of experts.

Materials and methods. The method of quality assessment and the results of the study, based on the proposed pyramid model of quality assessment with the details of the components, included in its composition, and the designation of their values for evaluation are considered in the paper. A method of assessing the quality of education at universities, based on the criteria of quality of education, the method of expert evaluation, formalization and algorithmization of the process is proposed. The generalized assessment of the group of experts is formed on the basis of average values. Formalization of assessment begins with the fact that in the built pyramid of quality of training each criterion is assigned a variable that reflects its assessment. The indicator, which is characterized by the average values of experts' assessments, is an assessment of the quality of training. Setting the relationship between quantitative and qualitative value is carried out using the established quality scale, which is based on the Likert scale. For a clear understanding of how the conclusion about the degree of consistency of experts by Kendall method is formed, the situation is considered when experts are asked to rank the criteria by significance, that is, to assign a place in the rating for each criterion. The overall assessment of the quality of education can be obtained based on a questionnaire that should be conducted on a specific topic and for all participants in the educational process, followed by an analysis of the survey results. Each expert group is offered a list of questions on a specific topic. To solve this problem, we should use the method of expert assessments, which is part of the theory of decision-making and expert evaluation - the procedure for obtaining an assessment of the task based on the opinion of experts, followed by decision-making.

Results. The interest of the employer in carrying out this study is to increase the effectiveness of the quality of training, the formation of professional competencies, as well as an objective comprehensive assessment of the quality of training. As a result of the study, the pyramid of criteria and the model of evaluation of the quality of education allow to determine the value that reflects the qualitative characteristics of the learning process in higher education.

Conclusion. The introduction of this model will improve the quality of the educational process in the University, to prepare highly qualified specialists in demand in the labor market, meet the needs of socio-economic development of modern society.

46-57 1003
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess the perception of various aspects of digital medicine by the youth segment of consumers, the degree of readiness to consume its services and the level of involvement in this process. The last few years have become a turning point for medicine, if we talk about the number of new directions, emerging techniques and the introduction of digital technologies. Digital medicine uses information and communication technologies to solve health problems of different groups of patients. Its capabilities help doctors and patients to analyze the development of the disease, calculate health risks. The segment of medical gadgets of digital medicine offers consumers a variety of products. Artificial intelligence and wearable devices are becoming common means of organizing the treatment process and monitoring the human condition. Young people, as a rule, more actively perceive any novelties and include еthem in their daily life. Is it really so? If we consider Russian young consumers, since foreign experience indicates their rather high interest.

Materials and methods of research. The presented study of the perception of the youth audience and readiness to use digital medicine is based on the methodology, proposed by the venture Fund Rock Health, dedicated to digital health. This Fund conducts research, aimed at improving the quality, safety and accessibility of modern medicine. The study is conducted by online survey of consumers who have access to the Internet at home, at work or through cell phones. The questionnaire was adapted for the Russian target audience. The results of the research of the consulting company Accenture, which regularly studies the trends in the consumption of medical technologies with the use of artificial intelligence, robotics and gadgets for self-diagnosis, were used as a factual basis. Data of research of the analytical company CB Insights, forming annual forecasts about the changes in healthcare, and also materials of joint research of the company Econsultancy and the developer of IT technologies for medicine Adobe are considered. The article presents some data of the report of the American company Change Healthcare, which has a strategic partnership with Google Cloud.

Results of the research on the one hand, show the high involvement of young people in the field of digital technologies. The survey includes 380 respondents, 89% are smartphone users and 83% regularly visit social networks. However, they are quite wary of digital medicine, requiring the control of personal data. They trust their doctor more than mobile apps and Internet resources; they are reluctant to buy wearables, little understanding of what is telemedicine. They are limited to searching for medical information on the Internet only about services, doctors, medicine and treatment technologies to find out general information.

Conclusion. The content analysis shows that digital medicine is becoming a popular trend in the development of modern healthcare. New technologies are being introduced, the key areas of development of which are focused on the Internet of things for medicine (IoT), artificial intelligence, mobile apps, genome editing, telemedicine, blockchain projects and cloud computing. The Russian market is slowly developing. Young consumers are not yet active in the consumption of digital health services and products. The key reasons for this are low awareness of the benefits and concerns about the security of the personal data.

ICT IN STATISTICS

NEW DIRECTIONS IN STATISTICAL SCIENCE AND PRACTICE

58-68 2048
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify the requirements of the digital economy to the technological level of the innovation environment development based on statistical analysis of indicators of the innovation environment. Over the past few decades, the vector of innovative economic development has changed from information to digital. A distinctive feature of the transition to a digital economy is the use of data in digital form to create innovation.

Materials and methods. The sources of actual data were the reports and databases of official statistical reporting, international organizations (United Nations, World Intellectual Property Organization, International Telecommunication Union). Based on the correlation analysis, the factors of the innovation environment that have the greatest impact on the innovation activity of enterprises were identified. The obtained results helped to formulate the requirements for the innovation environment, enabling the transition to a digital economy.

Results. The research of patent activity showed that the greatest number of inventions is registered in the field of computer technologies and digital communications. At the same time, these technologies themselves are a source of innovation in other areas of application (commerce, finance, education, etc.). The results of the correlation analysis allow us to choose the factors of the innovation environment that have the greatest impact on the results of innovation. These factors include intellectual and IT support for the innovation environment. The requirements to the innovation environment, providing transition to digital economy were formulated: equal access to IT-infrastructure, intellectual world potential, digital data, and methodical support of continuous interaction of various stakeholders in innovative activity.

Conclusion. Innovation activity in the information society and the transition to the digital economy requires different states of the innovation environment. Statistical studies show that access and the amount of accumulated IT in the society and intellectual potential have a great influence on the development of innovation. The innovation environment in the digital economy faces new challenges to ensure equal opportunities for access and interaction among different stakeholders.

DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

69-79 1809
Abstract

The study aims to assess the sex-age population structure in terms of its impact on the up-coming dynamics of natural increase and, consequently, on the general change in the population size. There are various approaches to assessing this influence, proposed and used by scientists who have studied this aspect of demographic dynamics. This article discusses a relatively simple indica-tor of the sex-age population structure, which allows estimating its future influence on the ratio of births to deaths, and on the natural population growth. The indicator proposed is the so-called demographic potential of the sex-age structure, which is the ratio of female population aged 10–39 to the population of both sexes aged 65 years and older. The number of births in the next 10–15 years largely depends on the size of the first one, while the number of deaths in this period depends on the size of the second one.

Before using the demographic potential of the sex-age structure to forecast the dynamics of natural population growth, a retrospective assessment of the relation of this potential with subse-quent natural population growth should be carried out for some particular time point in the past. We chose the sex-age structure of the mid-2000s and the natural increase (per 1000 population) in 2000–2015 for such assessment, accounting for 201 countries. The high value of the correlation coefficient (0.815) indicates that the current sex-age structure and its demographic potential can be used (with varying degrees of conditionality, of course) to forecast the future dynamics of natural growth. In turn, the size of the demographic potential of the sex-age structure of the population depends on the preceding levels of fertility and mortality.

An assessment of the demographic potential of the sex-age population structure in mid-2015 for 201 countries of the world showed that in a number of countries in Asia and Africa the value of this potential exceeds 10, so significant natural population growth is highly probable there in the next 10–15 years. Meanwhile, in a number of European countries the value of this potential is less than 1 (i.e., the population aged 65 years and older is larger than the female population aged 10–39 years), which is likely to result in a very small natural increase (in case of a favorable mode of pop-ulation reproduction) or even a natural decline.

80-87 1492
Abstract

Purpose of the study. A problem of assessing international labor migration in the past twenty years is a very topical issue in many countries around the world. The main problem of the study of labor migration is the lack of full and reliable information about this phenomenon. The main objective of this study is to assess the possibility of statistical assessment of external labor migration in the Russian Federation.

Materials and methods. The article provides an overview of the international basic documents in the field of the organization of labor statistics of migrants, and also defines the concepts of labor migration and foreign employees from the point of view of international and Russian legislation. The sources of information were the data of the summary information on migration records of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, as well as microdata on the form 5-PERSONAL INCOME TAX of the Federal Tax Service of Russia. The main methods, used in the study are: methods of analysis and synthesis, methods of data measuring and aggregating, methods of working with microdata, analytical indicators of the dynamics, graphical and tabular method.

Results and conclusion. Based on the study, several conclusions can be drawn. First, in the Russian Federation there are objective administrative sources of data on legal external labor migrants. Secondly, these sources are not harmonized and it is necessary to carry out methodological work on the harmonization of data and the construction of time series on the number of external labor migrants. Also, these services need to provide access to their information system to the Federal State Statistics Service to compile data on external labor migrants in various socio-demographic sections. Third, then the legal external labor migration to the Russian Federation increases every year and in 2017 amounted to about 108 million people, the main source countries are post-Soviet countries, and the high-ranking subjects of attraction are the cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Moscow Region.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)