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No 5 (2016)
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https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2016-5

DISCUSSION CLUB

3-7 982
Abstract

The published results of stochastic modeling and experimental studies on the distribution of prices of real estate markets, accompanied by the conclusions of a systematic overestimation of the market value of the consultants-valuers are stated in the article. Displaying the fundamental difference between the distributions of prices on different objects observed in the real estate market and the distribution of possible prices for the estimated object. The conclusion about the absence of grounds for the allegations of a systematic overestimation of the market value as a result of these differences is fixed. Formation unbiased valuations based on the properties of the distribution  of the adjusted average prices of the sample analogs are also explained.

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS

8-13 1215
Abstract

The purpose of this research is detection of characteristic features and regularities in food consumption by the population of the Arkhangelsk region on the basis of statistical estimation of such econometric indicators as the growth rate of food expenditures with change of the income of households of this population, and also income elasticity of expenditures and income elasticity of a share of food expenditures. For calculation of these indicators the nonlinear one-factorial regression model describing interrelation of the income and food expenditures of the population of the Arkhangelsk region was offered. In the paper the considerable attention is paid to check of accomplishment of conditions of reliability and importance of this regression model. For carrying out the statistical analysis microdata of selective examinations of budgets of the households of the Arkhangelsk region for the IV quarter of 2012 conducted by Rosstat were used. For data processing the packet of the statistical analysis of SPSS was used, and the solution of objectives was performed by methods of the correlation and regression analysis, and also by means of check of distributions of the researched quantities to a normality and the analysis of a regression residuals. During the research double logarithmic regression model was developed and statistically significant equation of regression which adequately describes interrelation of an income and food expenditures of households of the Arkhangelsk region is received. Proceeding from the received regression equation, income elasticities of expenditures and of a share of food expenditures were calculated: value of elasticity of the first size showed that in case of increase in incomes of the population of the Arkhangelsk region by 1% food expenditures increase on average for 0,5%, the received negative value of elasticity of a share of food expenditures demonstrates that in case of increase in incomes of this population by 1% the share of food expenditures decreases on average for 0,5%. On the basis of the carried-out regression analysis where, in addition, special attention was paid to check of observance of necessary conditions for its application, and estimation of the corresponding econometric indicators, it is possible to draw the following conclusions on food consumption by the population of the Arkhangelsk region: with increase in income food expenditures of households also increase, however the growth rate of such expenditures decreases; owing to income elasticity of expenditures, small in comparison with unit, food for the population of the Arkhangelsk region are essential goods; at last, food consumption by this population is in a consent with the economic Engel’s law determining dependence of a share of food expenditures in volume of incomes of households on their level.

14-17 716
Abstract

В статье определяется проблема объективного и универсального подхода к оценке содержания образовательных нормативных документов, составленных в образовательных организациях. Оценка качества содержания документа, например, содержание учебной программы дисциплины, не может проходить по формальным критериям. Для их оценки необходимо привлекать экспертов в конкретной области еще на стадии написания и составления документа. При этом нормативные документы в области образования регламентируют четкий перечень элементов и разделов образовательных документов. И вот эта формальная часть может быть подвергнута автоматической проверке на основе математико-статистических методов. Актуальность разработки таких подходов обусловлена в первую очередь большим количество образовательных документов. В настоящее время по одной образовательной программе может быть разработано более 400 образовательных документов (учебный план, учебная программа, руководство по изучению курса, фонды оценочных средств и т.д.). Основной целью исследования является разработка математико-статистических методов оценки содержания образовательных документов для возможности организации автоматизированной системы оценки. В ходе исследования были использованы методы описательной статистики, метод рангов, экспертные опросы, коэффициенты конкордации Кендэла и Пирсона. Входе работы были выделены основные формальные элементы, которые содержат нормативные документы образовательных организаций на примере рабочей программы профессионального модуля. Среди работников образовательной организации был проведен экспертный опрос по разработанным критериям. На основе итогов экспертного опроса были получены ранговые оценки полноты и содержания образовательных документов. Для оценки согласованности и адекватности экспертных оценок в работе были применены непараметрические методы статистики. Рассчитанные коэффициенты конкордации Кендэла и Пирсона позволили сделать выводы о согласованности полученных оценок, тем неимении в случае выявления разнонаправленности ответов экспертов можно выявить ответы, которые выпадают из общей тенденции. В случае обнаружения подобных ответов, можно вернуть образовательный документ на повторенное рассмотрение эксперту. Разработанная универсальная математико-статическая методика оценки элементов образовательного документа. Данная методика может быть автоматизирована с целью автоматической обработки большого количества образовательных документов.

18-22 1190
Abstract

This article discusses the key problems of assessing the country’s investment climate. The subject in the light of recent political events, has received increased attention. For reasons of increasing political tensions between Russia and the West, the investment activity is significantly reduced among foreign investors in our country. Studies have shown that the main problems of the current investment climate assessment methodologies are objectivity, comprehensiveness, relevance and comparability of proposed assessments. This article provides a mechanism for solving the above problems by using a multifactor model of investment attractiveness. The information base for the study served as the official annual statistical reports and bulletins of international organizations such as: IBCA, Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s, Monetary Fund, OPEC, UNCTAD, UNESCO, World bank, etc. The key theoretical positions on the assessment of the investment climate in the country were presented the results of the analysis reports and reviews of the international consulting company Ernst and Young and Deloitte, the official Internet resource of Russian and international business publications: Euromoney, Fortune, The Economist, The Financial Times, BBC, Bloomberg, RBC, Vedomosti and Komersant. The reliability and validity of scientific statements, conclusions and recommendations contained in this article provides the correct use of sufficient analytical and statistical information on the directions of research. In this article, the key attention is paid to the method of mathematical modeling and forecasting. With the introduction of the multiplicative model, where the multipliers are the separately calculated factors and potential risk factors, it is planned to bring the most accurate and objective evaluation model of investment climate in the country. The results articles as data and mathematical models will allow foreign investors to use the most objective assessment of the investment climate in the country in order to build their strategies market functioning. The article describes two methods to obtain an estimate of the investment climate, a fundamental and expertise. Studies have shown that the fundamental method provides the most accurate and objective assessment of, but not all of the investment potential factors can be subjected to mathematical evaluation. The use of expert opinion on the practice of subjectivity difficult to experts, so its use requires special care. In modern economic practice it proved that the investment climate elements directly affect the investment decisions of companies. Improving the investment climate assessment methodology, it allows you to build the most optimal form of cooperation between investors from the host country. In today’s political tensions, this path requires clear cooperation of subjects, both in the domestic and international level. However, now, these measures will avoid the destabilization of Russia’s relations with foreign investors.

SOCIAL STATISTICS

23-28 973
Abstract

The current world tendencies influence also the Russian economy which has fully entered an era of forming of information society. Development and broad application of information and communication technologies is determined by a global tendency of world development and has crucial importance for increase of competitiveness of economy, expansion of opportunities of its integration into world system of economy, increase of efficiency of public administration and local self-government. Now development of information society does not have alternatives. Expansion of use of information and communication technologies is a condition of transition to new economic way, a factor of growth of quality of life of citizens and a labor productivity of economy, the instrument of protection of national interests. In recent years information and communication technologies became the effective tool in the economic relations arising in a production process, distributions, an exchange and consumption of the benefits between economic actors. Widespread introduction of information technologies in economic activity of society stimulates profound infrastructure changes in scales of all global economic space. Today the majority of the countries aims at forming of information society, and the most priority directions of development are creation of the electronic government, implementation of information technologies in education, culture and health care. Indicators of development of information society dynamically change both in the Russian Federation, and in the majority of foreign countries, competitive struggle for presence of the companies in the international market becomes tougher. Important task of further social and economic development of Russia is improvement of quality of information exchange in various spheres of activity of society on the basis ofeffective development of the sphere of information and communication technologies. In this regard actual are questions connected with an assessment of a condition and development of this sphere taking into account global tendencies of development of information society.

29-35 2211
Abstract

Article retracted

Currently, the literature special attention is given to various adverse factors of sustainable demographic development of modern Russia, especially in the context of problem solving in the field of elimination of threats prejudicial to the country’s national interests. In this regard great scientific and practical interest is attracted by the comprehensive analysis of the barriers and barriers arising on a solution of these tasks. Among a set of threats of a national security special place rightfully occupy a specific demographic threat, including population reproduction and migration, which are of serious concern and generate a broad spectrum of the most diverse social and economic problems, the solution of which is objectively impossible without a complete and comprehensive information on the development of demographic phenomena and processes. This proves the necessity of carrying out the complex analysis of the natural and migratory movement of the population as priority factors of demographic safety that is the goal of this study.
In article proved the importance of the demographic factor as a priority in ensuring national interests. The article presents characteristics of the modern demographic situation in Russia and identified the main threats of demographic security of the country. Special attention is paid to issues of population ageing and the replacement of reproductive generations. The characteristics of gender differences in the levels of demographic replacement and their consequences. It was revealed that the future reduction in the number of people of reproductive age is a significant obstacle to a stable demographic development. Against this background, is defined the necessity of arrival of migrants into the country. The paper presents a detailed statistical analysis of current migration situation and the main problems related to migration. In article are defined trends in arrival of migrants to Russia from CIS countries, analyzed the structural shifts in an arrival stream. A comparative analysis of the reproduction of the Russian population and the population of the former Soviet Union, which allowed to justify the problem of demographic expansion. It is established that latent migration processes pose not only a threat to demographic security, but also harm the national interests of Russia. Overall, the analysis allowed to formulate a conclusion about the current unfavorable demographic situation in the country, created by the development of demographic processes in the recent past, representing an significant obstacle to sustainable socio-economic development of the country. This situation encourages the authorities to more active intervention, reminding that the human resource is one of the basic resources of any state, without which the country simply can not exist.

36-41 839
Abstract

A research objective which result was this article is the analysis of dynamics of the income of families during the last economic crisis in Russia and influence of change of the standard of living on performance by a family of the main functions, first of all reproductive, zhizneokhranitelny and educational. Now quite steady growth of birth rate, improvement of the indicators characterizing family trouble (refusals of the born children, deprivation of the parental rights, deviant behavior of children and teenagers) and health of children and teenagers is observed, however, as a result of decrease in the standard of living, increase in employment of parents, violation of this favorable tendency is possible. The research is based on the analysis of statistical and sociological information, including results of polls of the population, in him the research of ranks of dynamics, graphic and tabular methods is applied. In article sources of the income of the population, first of all – the salary and social payments exerting the greatest impact on the level of the income in general are considered. On the basis of the carried-out analysis the main tendencies characterizing extent of fall of the income of families with children proceeding from this research are formulated, it is possible to speak about increase of needs of families in measures of economic support. However, at the same time becomes the negative moment on the one hand, extremely low knowledge of families of already available measures of such help, and with another – their low assessment and unwillingness to participate in these or those programs offered by the state. In turn it is the factor worsening financial position of families too. High prosperity, material security still (as well as the 90th years, as well as at the beginning of this century) are on an equal basis with a family and children the leading value of Russians. It is connected, first of all, with the low standard of living when the impossibility to satisfy elementary material requirements, leads to strengthening of their role in consciousness of the person. In article it is shown that at the beginning of the economic crisis (in 2014–2015) more than a half of the interviewed Russians having children indicated material problems as the main in the life, besides, Russians are disturbed by unemployment or fears to lose work that indirectly also testifies to fear of deterioration in financial position. In addition, the fear of an economic crisis grows. The majority of families in Russia, according to sociological researches, don’t hope for bystry improvement of an economic situation (both own, and the countries in general), are afraid of further deterioration in a situation that, in turn, breaks psychological climate in a family, affecting performance of the functions by her. It has to cause concern of society, state as when to the forefront there are material values, people are inclined to postpone creation of families and the birth of children. In article it is summarized that as a result of falling of the standard of living of a family begin to reduce consumption of paid services of education, health care that can lead to deterioration in performance of educational function and health protection of a family.

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

42-48 6273
Abstract

Article is devoted to urgent problems of non-cash methods of calculation development by using electronic money – as one of the modern economically developed state strategic tasks. On modern economic science strong influence appears informatization process. The control expansion tendency, influence and distribution of commerce due to informatization of society led to emergence of the new phenomenon – information economy. Information economy brought new economic events which owing to their novelty are insufficiently studied to life. It is possible to carry electronic money to such phenomena of modern network economy Relevance and, in our opinion, timeliness of this scientific work, consisting in novelty of this non-cash payment method, its prospects and innovation within non-cash methods of calculations. Authors set as the purpose – studying of problems and the prospects of development of electronic money in the Russian Federation. In article theoretical bases of electronic money functioning are described. Determinations and classifications dismissed non-cash a method, and also the principles of electronic money functioning are considered, the questions of their historical development are raised.
Authors analyzed statistical data on development of electronic services and channels of their using. Features, benefits and shortcomings of the current state of the market of electronic money are studied. The emphasis on that fact that in modern conditions considerable number of economic actors perform the activities, both in the real environment of economy, and within the virtual environment that promotes expansion of methods of their customer interaction by means of technical devices of personal computers, mobile phones is placed. In article common problems and tendencies of payments with using an electronic money are designated, the research on assessment of the current state and the prospects of electronic money development and services which allowed to confirm analytical calculations of the marketing agencies on this perspective is conducted. The carried-out author’s interviewing allowed to draw conclusions on different degree of popularity about electronic money, most of respondents gives preference to other methods of cashless payment, namely cards and terminals/ATMs. Most of respondents plan to use further electronic money; negative experience has only 2% of respondents. The practical importance of the conducted research consists in identification the future of electronic money in the Russian Federation. The Russian scientists concerning functioning of electronic money, and also the federal law, and data of the official sites of the organizations specializing in subject domain formed a theoretical and information basis of a research. In this article were used and general scientific methods of data collection, methods of a research and a technique of assessment of their reliability and sufficiency found the application: quantitative, comparative, logical analysis and synthesis.

49-56 1298
Abstract

The goal of the work is to compare Russian norms and standards of risk management of mortgage lending with international standards of risk management based on the documents of the Basel Committee. The article also aims to analyze new banking tools of risk management of mortgage lending, that arise in connection with the application of international norms and standards of risk management.

Materials and Methods: The main documents considered in the article are the agreements on capital, issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision: Basel-I (1988), Basel-II (2004) and Basel-III (2010), as well as instructions and standing orders issued by the Central Bank of Russia, including: Instruction № 139-I "Ob obiazatel'nykh normativakh bankov", instruction № 1 "O poriadke regulirovaniia deiatel'nosti kommercheskikh bankov", the standing order number 215-P "O metodike opredeleniia sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala) kreditnykh organizatsii", the standing order № 395-P "O metodike opredeleniia velichiny sobstvennykh sredstv (kapitala) kreditnykh organizatsii («BAZEL III»)" and others. On the basis of these documents the work examines and summarizes the main methods of risk management of mortgage lending, such as: comparison and analysis of risk management techniques, study of the basic documents regulating risk management in banks and generalization of risk management methods in the segment of mortgage lending.

Results: The article analyzes the legal and methodological basis of risk management and provides practical methods that can be used in practice for managerial decisions in a constantly changing external economic environment. It also analyses international and native risk management. Russian standards of risk-management are compared with international. The work conducts a critical review of the effects of introduction of international standards in Russia. Special attention is paid to the practice of mortgage risk-management. The article considers the statistics of the mortgage market of recent years and analyzes the new requirements to the banks, involved in mortgage landing. The work offers some new advanced approaches for risk management of mortgage lending in the Russian banking sector, that improve the reliability of banking operations and increase trust between contractors.

Conclusion: In 2016 the Basel Committee concluded that risk management in Russia meets international standards, and some standards imposed in our country are even stricter than required in the last international agreement.  However, the accelerated implementation of the new standard in Russia is rather risky. By implementing "Basel 3" in the context of high capital requirements, the Central Bank believes that standards will be acceptable only to the large banks, and for others these requirements will lead to losses. This advanced approaches to risk management also require more careful monitoring. So on the one hand, these banks will be better protected from stock market risks and it will lead to formation of highreliable banking system. But the question is: how this system will develop in the conditions of lack of competition?

57-62 969
Abstract

New trends in the modern interpretation of the concept of «enterprise» is related to its development over time, a change in its structure as a result of adaptation to the dynamic environment, with the establishment of links with other organizations and enterprises. In this case, ontologies play a key role as a tool for providing «cross-cultural» (in the technical sense) between systems. The article highlights the problem of merging and splitting of ontologies, viewed as a necessary condition for the survival of enterprises in the conditions, when there is a merger or division. Was taken ontology and formal analysis was applied concepts for example, the restructuring of the commercial bank. Formal analysis of concepts we used to find a set of concepts, which will be a way to merge the local ontologies in the global financial ontology. Environmental changes occur very often and quickly. Adaptation and modification of ontologies for the socialized enterprises is very labor costs, as they require semantic information processing. We decided to use the method of formal analysis of concepts, since it allows you to apply a certain degree of process automation.

63-71 1125
Abstract

Consumer price index is a measure of inflation and it consists of two parts: persistent component (trend inflation) and short-term shocks. Inflation targeting requires index of core inflation, that independent from shortterm shocks and demonstrates the changes of the trend inflation. Reserve Banks pay attention on the changes in the trend inflation, when they take decisions about monetary policy, because it’s more informative than consumer price index for estimation of medium-term inflation risks. The objective of this article is detecting the index of core inflation that could be appropriate for monetary policy. There are some different measures of core inflation based on practice of Reserve Banks from different countries and economic articles. The comparative analysis presented in this article is based on several types of tests. The result of the research is that core consumer price index that is used today has got both advantages and weaknesses. Moreover, there is index of core inflation based on new methodology that is better than core consumer price index of Federal Sate Statistics Service. It is concluded that the Central Bank should focus precisely on this indicator when it takes decisions about monetary policy.

ECONOMICS

72-78 1249
Abstract

ARTICLE RETRACTED

The aim of the research is to study the theoretical and practical issues of internal fiscal control. Internal tax control system requires the development of methodological tools, its scientific basis and practical recommendations for the application. This difficult task is now solved only in organizations, which are the largest taxpayers. For small and medium-sized businesses in the organization of internal fiscal control may improve the quality of the accounting organization of the company. The internal control system has a positive effect on the further development of business and helps to attract investment or loans. There are new business opportunities due to the presence of an established and controlled by the system the company’s financial department. From the point of view of tax authorities increase the economic potential of the taxpayer provides the growth of the tax base and therefore increase revenues. Thus, the development of methodological tools of internal fiscal control organizations is of relevance to all participants of tax relations. The theoretical basis of the study served as a position of economic theory, the works of local and foreign experts in the field of tax control theory. The information base for the study were the statistical compilations, economic and legal literature, affecting the perspective of this study, laws and regulations of the Russian Federation, instructions, letters, explanations of the Federal Tax Service and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the data published in the press materials all-Russian scientific and practical conferences, seminars and Internet resources.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)