METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS
The purpose of the study is to identify cause-and-effect relationships between the national goals established in the Decree of the President and the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation regions.
The analysis focuses on assessing the impact of achieving the national goals on key regional development indexes and determining their role in forming strategies for socio-economic progress.
Materials and methods. A system of 106 indexes related to the national goals established by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation was used as an empirical base. Factor analysis and principal component analysis methods were used to select key indexes. The main research tool is Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which allows analyzing cause-and-effect relationships between latent variables, such as economic well-being, quality of life and social justice, demographic stability and innovative development.
Results. The study identifies key indexes reflecting the main aspects of achieving national goals. A structural model was constructed, revealing statistically significant relationships between national goals and socio-economic development indexes in the regions. The model confirms the hypothesis about the significant impact of achieving national goals on socio-economic development and identifies key latent variables, which explain variations in the data. The results also highlight the importance of accounting for temporal changes and regional characteristics for forecasts that are more accurate and recommendations.
Conclusion. The use of Structural Equation Modeling allowed identifying complex relationships between national goals and socio-economic indexes of the regions, confirming their significant impact on development. The results of the study can be used to optimize state policy aimed at achieving the strategic goals of socio-economic development in Russia. Additionally, directions for further research are proposed, such as cluster analysis and testing hypotheses on temporal dynamics.
ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS STATISTICS
The relevance of the conducted research consists of assessing the activities of a manufacturing enterprise using statistical tools and interpreting numerical financial indexes in the modern programming language Python.
The use of libraries embedded in the software, as well as the use of statistical calculations in the final format of interactive graphs, made it possible to interpret reliable information about the activities of the enterprise, as well as predict profit (loss) for the next few years. This method of calculation is necessary primarily for enterprise management to plan activities taking into account external economic conditions, as well as possible unforeseen circumstances and emerging situations. The software clearly demonstrates the possible representation of the dynamics and trends in the development of business entities in a concise and understandable, strictly formulated, accurate statistical and mathematical form. Analysis of the activities of various enterprises helps to identify their contribution to the development of the economy of the regions and the country as a whole, therefore the development of scientifically based recommendations to improve the efficiency of their activities and ensure sustainable development is a very relevant research topic at present.
Purpose of the study. Study of the activities of the LLC “Omsk Polypropylene Plant” enterprise for 2019–2023 using statistical tools and Python software libraries. As well as forecasting the main financial indexes for the coming years, taking into account the interpretation of the values obtained as a result of using the web development environment in numerical, tabular and graphical forms.
Description and forecasting of the development prospects of an enterprise based on accurate performance data are necessary not only for the managers of the enterprises under review, but also for their shareholders.
Materials and methods. The research materials used were regulatory documents, scientific publications of Russian and foreign authors, and accounting (financial) reporting data. The scientific article used the main research methods: monographic, comparative analysis, classification and generalization. The main methods of statistical and economic analysis were descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, regression analysis, time series analysis, etc.
Results. Derived statistical quantities using packages embedded in Python software such as Pandas, Seaborn, Matplotlib, NumPy, skleaern, Linear_model, LinearRegression, Scikit-learn, Metrics, Model selection. The following describes statistical indexes on visually programmed graphs; all data are entered into the Python web development environment using an auxiliary package of tables made in MS Excel. The presented calculations will not only allow timely and promptly react to changes in the external economic environment of activity, but also adjust costs to already predicted values, which, in turn, will help to increase the profitability of the enterprise, which is the main task of any owner.
Conclusion. Based on the results of the study, the authors developed forecast values of profit (loss) for LLC “Omsk Polypropylene Plant” and gave recommendations for improving the efficiency of the enterprise in the coming years.
The article reflects the results of a comprehensive comparative rating assessment of meat-processing enterprises in the Vologda region, based on a system of indexes that allows us to evaluate, on the one hand, the financial results of the enterprise, and on the other hand, the opinion of those who directly consume its products.
The object of the study was 13 meat-processing enterprises – participants of the “True Vologda Product” brand as of 2024, for which an assessment of their financial condition and potential was also carried out.
The purpose of the research – comparative assessment and rating of Vologda meat-processing enterprises participating in the voluntary certification system of products “True Vologda Product” based on the original methodology for comparative comprehensive assessment of brand member producers.
Materials and methods. The study used a method of multidimensional comprehensive comparative rating assessment of enterprises based on a system of two categories of indexes: indexes for assessing consumer preferences and indexes for assessing the financial condition of enterprises. Comparative comparisons were made with the results of applying this method to the same sample of enterprises obtained during the study conducted in 2020. Information was collected using questionnaire survey methods, standardization and generalization of results, statistical methods, and the rating assessment method. A graphical method was used to present the assessment results.
Results. A rating of enterprises was constructed based on the indexes of integrated levels of their comparative assessments, which made it possible to formulate the functional characteristics of meat product manufacturers for the population based on the degree of their participation in ensuring the development potential of the regional commodity brand “True Vologda Product”. The identified problems in the work of the studied enterprises in the industry made it possible to determine the driving factors for the growth of their potential.
Conclusion. The analysis of meat-processing producers participating in the brand “True Vologda Product” conducted on the basis of a comprehensive approach allowed us to identify the strengths and weaknesses of these enterprises, which in general allows us to judge the fairly high economic potential for the development of the meat-processing industry in the Vologda region, the availability of opportunities for expanding the sales market both within the region and beyond, including a more intensive expansion of the geography of exports. Products of agricultural origin, made from certified environmentally friendly raw materials, have undeniable competitive advantages compared to products imported from neighboring regions and imported products.
SOCIAL STATISTICS
The purpose of the study is to substantiate the criteria and develop classifications of factors influencing the economic behavior of households.
The relevance of the study is due to the importance of economic behavior, which is influenced by various factors that activate the functions of the population related to the needs, desires, values and orientations of people. However, modern factors influencing the economic behavior of households have not been fully studied.
Most researchers consider them fragmentarily, without linking them to the capabilities of the population, the economic situation, the state of the external environment, economic development trends, cultural characteristics and living conditions, and forms of household management. The study attempts to take into account and analyze the key factors influencing household behavior according to the criteria of the degree of rationality or irrationality of deeds and actions of people. The most important factors influencing household behavior are used: the level of inflation and income; human development; efficiency of public administration and informatization of the economy.
The materials and methods of research are digital meters of official statistics and the following methods: index, balance constructions, groupings, multifactorial analysis and comparison of various data.
The author has assessed the factors influencing household behavior by socio-economic indexes for the period 2010-2023, which allow an objective reflection of actions and deeds of people depending on changes in the situation in the internal and external environment of the population. Based on the results of a review of theoretical and methodological approaches, a classification of factors has been developed that have a direct impact on the behavior of people, their needs, production and development trends in the country’s regions. It is found that inflation is a key economic factor that has a significant impact on the life, incomes, and activities of households, and it often artificially reduces the work and knowledge of people. During inflation, the purchasing power of money decreases, and this forces households to look for ways to ensure their survival, self-preservation, reduce the cost of consuming goods, and abandon traditional goods and needs. The unfavorable habitat and unpredictable living conditions of people negatively affect the well-being and rational behavior of households.
Conclusion: the use of a statistical approach to reflect criteria and factors influencing the economic behavior of households has made it possible to identify the real positive and negative impacts of the external environment, measure the level of development and contribution of a particular territory to the country’s economy, minimize irrational actions and maximize rational actions of households, which is important in the development strategy and recommendations to improve the public policy aimed at activating economic behavior to enhance the quality of life of the population.
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONS AND REGIONAL STATISTICS
NEW DIRECTIONS IN STATISTICAL SCIENCE AND PRACTICE
The purpose of the study. The formation of a social state, the formation of civil society, the development of a multi-party system and public associations, including in the form officially registered of political parties (PP) and socially oriented non-profit organizations (SO NPO), the emergence of new channels of communication between the population and its active part – the electorate and the state authorities in the Russian Federation, modern trends in the development of a multipolar world and changes in the forms and types of foreign policy relations – all these phenomena and facts of social life become new objects of research of one of the oldest branches of social statistics: political statistics (PS), which makes necessary the formation of updated system of indexes for this branch of statistical science.
Materials and methods. The conceptual basis for structuring sections of the PS, identifying a specific subject, method and research objectives, defining a system of indexes within each section of the PS and the relationships between these modules are presented in the form of an information and logical diagram of subsystems of indexes with the definition of algorithms for their calculation and data sources for their construction.
Results. The results of the author’s applied research on some relationships between modules of indexes of PS sections (the number of SO NPOs and its relationship with the level of well-being of the population, the number of poor people) are presented, highlighting those emerging trends in Russia for 2012–2022, proportions, structural shifts in the sphere of socio-political relations; the main directions for the further development of the system of PS indexes in the context of its subsystems are determined, the problems ofstatistical observation in its various forms over the facts of political life are highlighted.
Conclusion. The obtained research results can be used in analytical activities when organizing targeted studies of PS objects by statistical bodies, ministries and departments, and the Civil Chamber of the Russian Federation; in the educational process in the training of sociologists and political scientists in the country’s universities; in the analytical developments of academic and teaching staff.