METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS
The main purpose of the study is to identify the types and volumes of purchases for state and municipal needs with high corruption risks. Based on the studies, proposals have been prepared on the content of the sample statistical monitoring of procurements with high corruption risks. The expansion of statistical research in this area is provided by the National Anti-Corruption Plan for 2018–2020.
The research materials include data from statistical observations, summary analytical reports of the ministries for 2014–2019, speeches by representatives of the government and science on corruption and the effectiveness of public procurement, as well as scientific publications. General scientific empirical and theoretical research methods were used. Empirical methods include the steps of collecting information and collecting official data, materials from scientific conferences and interviews. Theoretical methods provide for the formalization of the heterogeneous information received on the processes under study in the public procurement system.
The results of the studies showed the need for selective statistical observation, despite the cancellation of continuous monitoring since 2015 due to the start of the full functioning of the unified information procurement system (hereinafter – the UIPS) on the website www. zakupki.gov.ru. Reports based on data from the UIPS, as well as the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia and the Treasury of Russia from 2015 to 2017 had been prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia and from 2018 by the Ministry of Finance of Russia. During such a transfer of authority, for example, the number of applications submitted per one competitive procedure dropped out of the number of the monitored indicators. However, since 2018, more attention has been paid to procurement on the basis of paragraphs рр. 24, 25 part 1 of article 93 of 44-FZ, providing for the possibility of concluding a contract with a single supplier due to failed tender procedures. The value of contracts on these grounds amounted to 2,755 billion rubles (or 43.78 billion US dollars) in 2018 with an upward trend in 2019, and amounted to 29% of the total value of the concluded contracts. A common way of making such purchases with high corruption risks is to conspire with participants in procurement procedures that have received the name «Battering ram operation» at electronic auctions, as well as formulating difficult conditions and high requirements for performers, with poor public examination of the state contract.
In conclusion, it should be noted that selective statistical surveys should supplement the available information of the UIPS with data on procurement from a single supplier, and the selection of a separate category of contracts concluded as a result of failed procedures of a massive nature. The prepared proposals contribute to the implementation of order of the President of the Russian Federation to strengthen the effectiveness of control in the procurement of goods, works and services to ensure state and municipal needs dated December 17, 2018 No. Pr-2417 and implementing of national anti-corruption plan.
The analytical value of the complex system of statistical indicators characterizing the creation of value in the primary real estate market is determined by the sensitivity of the entire socio-economic sphere to the object of study, since it is the population, that is, the end user of this element of national accumulation, feels it as a factor of living standards, welfare, material potential and even as the possibility of obtaining passive income in the form of property rent.
The secondary market of residential real estate, where a huge share of cash savings of the population turns out, is partly inferior in its importance to the primary market. This applies to the fact that the primary market is the relationship of the subjects about not only the movement, but also the creation of value. Thus, we are talking about the circulation of tangible assets, which are an integral part of the new, newly created gross domestic product, namely that part of it that is not consumed as part of final consumption, but represents gross capital formation – the accumulation of fixed capital.
Purpose. Presentation of statistical methodology content, relating to the language of any statistical study – indicators, in this case the systematization and ordering of a comprehensive system of indicators of statistics of the creation of objects in the primary real estate market.
Materials and methods. Since the article is of a methodological nature, it uses the methods of general scientific knowledge, synthesis, generalization of qualitative information, based objectively on dialectical unity with natural and special sciences, primarily engineering and construction, relating to the object of statistical research, and mathematical, concerning the methodological aspects of obtaining quantitative estimates of the statistical indicators.
In the statistics of living standards of the population, considerable attention is paid to the level of consumer spending of households. These are, directly, monetary expenses per capita, specific indicators of retail trade turnover and payment for services. However, only the statistics of the primary market and the characteristics of the creation of new facilities can show the participation of the population in the financing of the growth of national wealth, that part of it, which is determined by the international methodology, as the accumulated property created by the work of current and previous generations.
It should be noted that the statistical analysis of the primary real estate market and the complex processes of creating objects that turn on it, is associated with a certain Russian paradox: a large-scale information attack, which is subjected to the domestic society, says about the reduction in recent years the standard of living of the population on various parameters, including the range and quantity of food consumption; at the same time, the volume of the area entered and realized in the primary real estate market, exactly, as well as the prices for it, grow uncontrollably that indicates inexhaustible solvent demand of the population for the acquired objects of long-term use.
Results. In the research paper the information sources are ordered, the blocks of statistical indicators are consistently built, allowing to obtain both primary and generalized characteristics of the commissioning of primary objects related to both housing directly and to communication facilities that provide residential functionality of the results of construction and the entire residential infrastructure.
Conclusion. The article deals with the analytical potential of indicators along with the prospects of their further application and the possibility of further improvement of statistical methodology and improving the quality of research of such a complex object as the primary real estate market.
SOCIAL STATISTICS
The aim of the study. The aim of the study is a statistical analysis of the accessibility and the use of information and communication technologies for the population and households based on the developed integrated indices in the regional aspect.
Fundamental international documents refer to the increasing role of information in all spheres of society, and indicate that the number of the poorest households with, for example, a mobile phone is higher than that with the access to clean drinking water.
Thus, it can be noted that the level of accessibility and use of information and communication technologies is a priority for the development of both individual countries and the world community as a whole.
Materials and methods. Methods of grouping and multidimensional classification, analysis of variation, normalizing, construction of multidimensional averages and correlation analysis, as well as tabular and graphical methods of visual representation of the results of the study were used as statistical tools for the study. Microsoft Excel was used to process the primary information.
Results. Comparison of currently used indicators has revealed the need to develop and build integrated indices in four main areas of ICT research: infrastructure (physical and information), ICT accessibility (physical and price affordability), the use of ICT (by the population and households, enterprises and organizations, in the public sector), knowledge and skills (education, digital skills). In this study, the analysis was carried out according to the characteristics of the accessibility and the use of ICT for the population and households. The results of the study at the federal district level led to the conclusion that, despite the existence of a unified policy in the field of ICT development and information society at the federal level, there are significant differences in the management of this process and the level of implementation of system development measures for ICT in individual federal districts and regions. The main result of the study is the classification of regions by levels of accessibility and use of ICT. The analysis revealed a significant direct relationship between the components of ICT accessibility and its use. The ratings based on the calculated multidimensional averages allowed us to reveal the leader and lagging regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the development of ICT and information society.
Conclusion. According to the results of the statistical research positions of regions of the Russian Federation on the accessibility levels and the use of information and communication technologies were determined, as well as a direct relationship between the indices of accessibility and the use of ICT was revealed as a whole in the Russian Federation, and in individual federal districts.
The purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to develop scientifically based proposals to increase the university performance indicators in the international institutional rating QS to the required values, taking into account the presence of a combination of latent (hidden) factors, the degree of achievement of the set values of the basic indicators and, as a result, the university ranking level.
Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, methods of statistical analysis (correlation-regression and factor analysis) were used, which made it possible to identify the degree of influence of latent factors on basic indicators and the main indicator (rating functional). During the study, the following tasks were solved: identification of latent factors affecting the basic indicators of the university, an assessment of their significance and degree of influence on the basic indicators, as well as their grouping. Based on the results of the correlation - regression and factor analysis, measures are formulated to achieve the specified values of the QS University institutional rating indicators.
Results. An approach to solving the problem of providing conditions for achieving the required values of university performance indicators in the international institutional ranking QS using models developed based on the methods of correlation-regression and factor analysis is proposed. Estimates of the relationship of indicators and university ranking based on the methods of correlation and regression analysis are obtained. A comparative analysis of the results obtained at the universities of the reference group is made. The problem of identifying factors that influence the change in the values of indicators is solved; the degree of this influence is assessed. Based on the results obtained, reasonable proposals have been developed to achieve the required values of the basic indicators and the rating functional of the university.
Conclusion. The results obtained in the course of the study made it possible to justify the measures necessary to solve the problem of achieving the specified performance indicators of the university. Based on the correlation model, correlation dependencies between the rating functional and basic indicators are obtained. Interpretation of the results of factor analysis allowed us to identify a set of factors that have a significant impact on the basic indicators. It is shown that measures to achieve the specified indicators must be carried out taking into account the revealed correlation dependencies between factors and basic indicators, as well as the interpretation results of the developed factor model.
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Purpose of research. It is known that individual entrepreneurs create a large number of jobs for themselves and employees and saturate the regional markets with their goods, works and services. The strategy for improving business activity in Russia until 2030 provides for an increase of one and a half times the number of employees in this sector of the economy. Therefore, the problem of assessing the parameters of individual entrepreneurship in our country is put forward as an urgent one. The purpose of our research is to determine the current industry structure in 2018 and assess the indicators that characterize the level of this sector in the economy of the regions.
Materials and methods. The study used the author’s proposed methodological approach, based on the consideration of specific indicators that describe the characteristics of the activities of individual entrepreneurs, united by industry and regional characteristics. As the initial information, we considered official statistical data provided on the website of ROSSTAT, describing the absolute performance indicators of sets of individual entrepreneurs, formed by 18 types of economic activity and 82 regions of Russia for 2018. The study tested the following two hypotheses: significant differences in the specific weights of indicators of individual entrepreneurs specialized in different types of economic activity; differentiation of indicators that characterize the activities of individual entrepreneurs in different regions.
Results. The analysis of the branch structure of individual entrepreneurship in Russia was based on the calculation of the specific weights of four indicators that characterize the activities of individual entrepreneurs specialized in different types of economic activity, in the general values of these indicators of individual entrepreneurship in Russia as a whole. These indicators include: the number of actually operating individual entrepreneurs; the number of employees in the sector of individual entrepreneurship; the number of employees; the volume of revenue of individual entrepreneurs from the sale of goods, products, works and services. The study included the development of economic and mathematical models describing five indicators and the activities of all individual entrepreneurs in each of the regions of the country. The assessment of indicators that characterize the level of development of the business sector in the economy of the regions allowed for a corresponding comparative analysis. It is shown that in Russia entrepreneurs in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade prevail. More than 43% of all entrepreneurs specialize in this activity. The share of all employed in individual entrepreneurship is more than half. The share of revenue from such activities reached 67% of the total revenue of all individual entrepreneurs.
Conclusion. The scientific novelty of the study is associated with the study of the distribution of indicators that characterize the totality of individual entrepreneurs by industry and region. The methodology and tools that were used in the research process can be applied in similar studies for other time periods. The new knowledge obtained can be applied in research on the problems of individual entrepreneurship. The results of the study can be used in the educational process: in the preparation of bachelors and masters, researchers, as well as specialists of state and municipal administration.
Purpose. The strategic objectives of sustainable development of the Russian economy include improving energy efficiency and capital efficiency, increasing labor productivity, and reducing the negative impact on the environment. Due to the significant differentiation of the Russian Federation economy, the priorities of these tasks in regions are not the same. There-fore, the analysis of various components of the regional macroeconomic efficiency and the choice of methodical approaches to their composite assessment are being important. The pur-pose of this paper is to test the multidimensional analysis methods of key regional production indicators for measuring the integral indicator – the relative level of economy-wide efficiency of the Russian regions.
Materials and methods. “Per unit” indicators of the gross regional product: energy con-sumption, use of fixed assets, labor, and environmental impact, that are calculated by the ROSSTAT data are the basis for assessing of the regional economy efficiency. The research interest of joint consideration of these regional economy indicators is due to their connected-ness as major components of the latent synthetic property of efficiency. The study used meth-ods of comparative multidimensional analysis: nonparametric method of frontier analysis – Data Envelopment Analysis, methods of the average and taxonomic indicator and principal components.
Results. The tested methods allowed assessing the differentiation, to rank the regions of the Russian Federation by the level of their economic systems’ efficiency and to identify the “lagging” ones and determine the factors that reduce their positions. The specifics of the ap-plication of the considered methods are noted. Attention is paid to the economic interpreta-tion of the integral indicators. The grouping of regions of the Russian Federation has been car-ried out according to the data of 2016. Twenty-eight regions are classified as “high efficiency” (integral index 0,85–1,0), most of which are effective on all four criteria. The “medium-performing” group (0,75–0,84) comprises thirty-three regions with a reduced level of efficien-cy due to one or two factors: high energy intensity, increased emissions or insufficient labor productivity. The “low efficiency” group (0,5–0,74) comprises twenty-six regions, the problem of their efficiency is a complex one, mainly energy-environmental, with critically low efficien-cy indicators for some components.
Conclusion. This article presents an assessment of the differentiation of the regional economy efficiency by using an integral indicator, taking into account the performance of the use of labor, physical capital, fuel and energy resources and environmental impact. Firm con-clusions on the choice of the method for aggregating particular performance criteria into one generalizing indicator have not been obtained. A practical approach is to solve such problems Economic statistics by different available methods to compare results and to obtain consistent conclusions. Four basic criteria of the regional economy efficiency were taken into account, but methodically their number is not limited and can be increased. The results can be used in the system of mon-itoring and strategic planning of regional economy development. The proposed methodical approach is applicable to other practical tasks of multi-factor comparative analysis of regional development.
Purpose of the study. The oil and gas industry occupies an important place in the Russian economy. The financial position of any organization is determined by its financial results, where profit is a key indicator in a market economy and an indicator of the success of the company. The aim of this work is to study the state and development of the oil and gas industry, analysis of the main financial indicators, characterizing the activities of a number of oil producing companies selected in the SPARK database using economic and statistical methods.
Materials and methods. The research information base is statistical data and analytical information reflecting the financial component of the oil and gas industry. The research methodological base is represented by economic and statistical methods of information analysis.
Results. The analysis of the main trends in the development of trade in the international oil trade is carried out, the key determinants of the modern world oil market are highlighted, the economic situation in the Russian oil industry is analyzed, which showed that there is a decrease in oil production associated with the OPEC + agreements; the share of exports of crude oil increases; the share of exports of refined oil decreases; the government is developing measures to reduce the dependence of budget revenues on the oil and gas industry.
The main types of profit, such as gross profit, sales profit, before-tax profit, net profit are considered. It is worth noting that these categories of profit are interconnected, since one category follows from another, depending on the items of income and expense inherent in a particular type of profit. The analysis of a number of indicators, characterizing the financial activities of organizations of the oil and gas complex was carried out, the totality of oil producing organizations based on the SPARK database was selected, and a comparative analysis of the financial activities of two organizations of the oil and gas complex was carried out.
Conclusion. The oil and gas industry is a key sector of the economy, making a significant contribution to the social and economic development of our country. Revenues from the activities of the oil and gas complex make a significant contribution to the country’s GDP and are a significant component of the budget.
In this paper, an analysis of a number of financial and economic indicators, characterizing the activities of organizations of the oil and gas complex was carried out. The financial condition of the organization is largely determined by its financial results – profit or loss. The main indicators of the financial results of the organization are profit and profitability, which depend on many internal and external factors. Including, industry features have a great influence. A set of oil-producing organizations based on the SPARK database was selected in the work. By the example of organizations JSC “IDELOIL” and Ltd “NEDRA-K”, a comparative analysis of financial and economic indicators was carried out, directions for increasing gross profit and gross margin indicators were proposed and justified in order to reduce costs and increase revenues.
As a result, it was concluded that the oil industry in Russia depends on political and economic factors, in this regard, it is necessary to regularly analyze the activities of organizations in this industry to identify miscalculations, low-active functioning systems, etc., with the purpose of more efficient functioning of the industry.
STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS
The purpose of the study. The purpose is to analysis the use of biological assets through econometric models and quantifies the relationship between economic indicators of agricultural activity. The article is devoted to the possibilities of econometric analysis in the context of limited empirical data on Russia regarding the use of biological assets.
Materials and methods. The article analyzed the Russian and foreign bibliography on the problems of biological assets research. In the context of the study of biological assets, the possibilities of using econometric analysis methods based on spatial, temporal or panel data are shown. A multi-regression model based on three groups of indicators (livestock and crop indicators, as well as indicators reflecting agricultural development in general) and implemented in two phases has been built. This model allowed making estimates of the impact of biological assets on the value of agricultural products in Russia. The methods of correlation analysis investigated the closeness of the relationship between the variables in the model. The initial data for this study were the annual data for the period 2000–2018. An array of more than 150 observations was used. For the purpose of comparability, this array has been converted into relative values, i.e. econometric analysis was carried out on growth rates.
Results. This article highlights the main areas of research on biological assets presented in the works of Russian and foreign scientists-economists. It is concluded that there are a wide range of issues of assessment and accounting of biological assets in Russian publications and in the context of the transition to international reporting standards. These problems are not relevant for foreign researchers – in foreign publications presented mainly the search for effective mechanisms for assessing the market value of biological assets using complex econometric models. The article substantiates the importance of using econometric analysis methods in Russian conditions, highlights a number of areas of such analysis and presents a multifactorial regression model. The implementation of the model allowed quantifying the hypothesis of the strong impact of biological asset productivity on the value of agricultural organizations. Based on the construction of the trend line and the choice of the optimal value of the value of the value of the approximation, a short-term forecast of the value of agricultural products produced by livestock and crop production was made. In addition, the correlation matrix assesses the closeness of the relationship between economic indicators.
Conclusion. Economic analysis of biological assets should include a variety of areas – valuation, accounting and auditing, insurance and leasing, efficient use and management. The debate between proponents and opponents of the valuation of biological assets at fair value as an alternative to historical value accounting is of particular relevance today. Many issues relating to the valuation and use of biological assets can be addressed by econometric analysis techniques. In Russian practice, this approach is not yet widespread. However, it is it that it quantifies the complex links between economic variables (including biological assets) that characterize agricultural activities.