Purpose of the study. The aim of this work is to consider the possibility of using expert information when combining forecasts as an additional factor in improving the accuracy of economic forecasting. Using the methodology of combining forecasts is increasingly found in the domestic practice of economic forecasting. Most researchers agree that combining forecasts improves forecasting accuracy by using all available information about the process under study, which is included in individual forecasting methods.  Today, there are many methods for constructing weighting factors when combining forecasts, but all of them are primarily based on the use of only statistical information about the process under study. But economic forecasting cannot be linear in its dynamics, many external factors constantly affect the forecasted process, and some internal ones may not be affected by the methods used. In this case, it is necessary to attract expert information or external information about the forecast obtained in order to increase its accuracy and adjust the further development of the economic process. This is especially true today, during the period of digitalization of the economy and the increasing influence of social and political factors on the dynamics of economic phenomena.  

Materials and methods. For this purpose, methods of constructing integral indicators based on expert information or directly using such information at the stage of constructing a joint forecast can be directly used to make adjustments to the resulting combined forecast. Some of these approaches are already used in foreign practice of economic forecasting, while in domestic practice they are still little known. One of such approaches may be the use of the pairwise preference method or the application of Fishburn formulas for ranking particular forecasting methods by accuracy. The approaches considered in this work can be used as tools for constructing weight coefficients or as a correction of the obtained forecasting results.  

Results. As a result of this article, attempts have been made to propose possible methods for combining forecasts using expert information, a summary table has been compiled with an assessment of one or another method of combining forecasts, and conclusions are drawn on the appropriateness of their application in practice. Such a table will make it possible to better understand the direction of attracting expert information to combine forecasts and choose the most suitable approach for further use in practice.  

Conclusion. Combining forecasts has long established itself as an effective method for increasing forecast accuracy. This technique cannot degrade the result, in most cases increasing accuracy. The use of expert information in combining forecasts is the next step in improving this technique and requires a separate further practical study of possible tools for attracting expert information to the pool.  

Purpose of the study. OECD «Going Digital Toolkit» is one of the tools for monitoring of the digital transformation. Platform can helps to quantify various areas of digitalization and provides a comprehensive description of the changes in the socio-economic sphere.  Despite the Going Digital Toolkit platform has the objective advantages, this tool is practically not used by Russian researchers.  The purpose of this study is to analyze the possibility of using «Going Digital Toolkit» platform as a tool for monitoring the development of the digital economy in the Russian Federation.  

Materials and methods. To achieve the goal of the study, a comparative analysis of the indicators of the Going Digital Toolkit platform was carried out on the OECD countries, European Union countries and the Russian Federation. Research was carried out to:  1) identify the presence of certain indicators in the platform system in case of the analysis the Russian Federation;  2) investigate the relevance of data on indicators presented in the platform system for the Russian Federation;  3) analyze the position of the Russian Federation regarding the OECD and the EU;  4) determine reserves to achieve monitoring integrity based on Russian state statistics and other sources;  5) develop the recommendations for improving the statistics of digital transformation in the Russian Federation.  Along with the information published on the Going Digital Toolkit platform, the data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the data of the Ministry of Digital Development, Telecommunications and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation were used.  

Results. The position of Russia can be assessed as «lagging» in comparison with the countries of the European Union and the OECD. For most indicators that characterize access and use of the Internet, e-commerce and skills, Russia does not exceed these countries. In some cases, the twofold superiority of the EU and OECD countries over the Russian Federation makes it impossible to make an optimistic forecast to correct the current situation in the near future. However, the position of Russia identified on the basis of the platform’s data does not reflect the situation in real time, which suggests positive dynamics in some of the indicators presented.  The issue of using the platform as a tool for monitoring digital transformation in the Russian Federation is debatable. The incompleteness of the information presented in Russia makes the tool impractical, however, the available information, together with the functional advantages of the analytical platform, opens up new opportunities for users.  

Conclusion. The Going Digital Toolkit platform acts not only as an interactive tool for analyzing numerical values for a number of indicators, but also as a standard of a system of statistical indicators necessary for measuring processes and phenomena of digital transformation. The platform can serve as a guide for national statistical agencies in the development of relevant surveys and improve the methodological foundations of statistics in the field of information and communication technologies.  

The purpose of the study is a statistical analysis of the labor resources of the Amur Region as one of the components of the region’s competitiveness.  

Materials and methods. To conduct a statistical analysis of the region’s labor resources, statistical methods were used, such as calculating absolute and relative dynamics’ indicators, average values, structure indicators, comparative analysis, graphical analysis method, as well as a general theoretical analysis method of Russian literary sources. The main research method was dynamic analysis. To assess the competitiveness of the region, the rating method was used. The study is based on statistics from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, as well as the Territorial Authority of the Federal State Statistics Service in the Amur Region. In this research, the works of authors are presented: Vlasova V.I., Zemlyanukhina S.G., Shunina V.I., Shelomentseva M.V., Motrich E.L., Ryzhova N.P., Zhuravskaya T.N., Mishchuk S.N., Danchenko E.V., Ryazantseva S.V., Polevoy N.M., Ponkratova L.A., Tsarevskaya E.A., Koroleva S.I., Novikova I.V., Reimera V.V., Rychkova E.S., Dyachenko V.N., Lazareva V.V. and others.  

Results. The statistical analysis of the labor component of the competitiveness of the Amur Region made it possible to identify the unfavorable demographic situation in the region, manifested in the annual decline in the labor force in the region. In this case, migration loss leads to a population decline. It is important to note that the share of labor in the total population of the region is increasing every year. At the same time, this increase is higher for men than for women. The employment rate of the population of the Amur region at the age of 15–72 years is increasing every year. Perhaps this trend indicates a decline in the standard of living of the population of the region, which forces the population in old age to engage in economic activity. Confirmation of this fact is a decrease in unemployment in the region. Another trend indirectly indicating a decrease in household income  is a 3.3-fold increase in employment among the elderly from 60 to 72 years. The largest number of labor resources is still engaged in trade. Assessment of the competitiveness of labor resources in the Amur region showed their inefficient use in the region. In the Far Eastern Federal District, the region is in the last but one place.  

Conclusion. The competitiveness of the region’s economy is determined by many factors, among which the labor potential occupies a special place. One of the most important tasks of successful socio-economic development of the region is to achieve the most efficient use of the potential of labor and business activity of the population of the region. It is possible to improve the use of labor resources in the region by creating new jobs, manufacturing products with high added value, increasing the level and quality of life of the population, creating the appropriate infrastructure for the life of the population of the territory. In the context of a reduction in the number of labor resources in the region, it is necessary to look for reserves to replenish them. In the increase in the retirement age of the population, attention should be paid to the elderly population as one of such reserves. In addition, taking into account the border position of the Amur region, we should think of the reasonable use for foreign labor in the region. The development and implementation of an effective policy of attracting older people and foreign citizens to work will achieve a balance in the formation and use of the labor potential of the region.

The purpose of the article is to assess the status and develop measures of state policy to overcome consistently interregional differences in the level and quality of life of the population based on promoting the independence of regional and local authorities of the Russian Federation. The applied purpose of the work is to determine the optimal values of the distribution of revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation at the levels of the budget system as a financial condition of the solvency of the subnational authorities. According to the provisions of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 07.05.2018 No. 204 “On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2024” the range of issues is of critical importance, as it requires the inclusion of regional and local authorities in the implementation of national projects.  

Materials and methods. The article analyzes the changes in the level of interregional differences in the main indicators of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2000, 2005 and 2016–2018. Based on the analysis of interregional differentiation by own and total revenues of their consolidated budgets, the changes in the level of financial independence of subnational authorities were assessed. As factors, hindering the development of regions with “self-reliance”, the state debt policy, the practice of inter-budget transfers, and the income structure of three-tier budget system of the country are analyzed. The methodological basis of the study is the work on regional statistics, structural analysis, quantitative modeling. Tabular and graphic methods of visualization of research results, statistical methods of processing of initial data were used. To solve the problems of the study, standard Microsoft application packages were used.  

Results. The article shows the excessive centralization at the Federal level of the main decisions that determine the fiscal and debt policy of regional and local authorities, the “explosive” growth in the volume of subnational debt for these years, as well as the “blurring” of inter-budget transfers from the Federal budget to the budgets of the Russian Federation regions. The debt policy of the state and inter-budgetary regulation are estimated as not fully corresponding to the tasks of spatial development of the country. A system solution for optimizing the structure of three-level budget system of the Russian Federation is proposed and a method for defining the optimal values of the distribution of revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation by levels of the budget system is presented.  

Conclusion. The high heterogeneity of Russia’s spatial development is one of the features of its economy. The article deals with the differentiation of Russian regions in terms of the level and quality of life of the population, analyzes the factors that led to this differentiation. State fiscal and debt policy, inter-budget transfer policy are the key factors in consistently solving the problems of overcoming interregional differences in the level and quality of life of the population, improving the competitiveness of the country, ensuring sustainable economic growth. Achieving the optimal structure of the budget system (as well as the movement to it) will create conditions not only for the inclusion of subnational authorities in the implementation of national projects, but also for the implementation of the diversity of the potential of its regions – a unique advantage of the Russian Federation.  

The purpose of this research is to assess the impact of the commissioned toll road running through the city’s residential areas on the market value of residential real estate. The article presents a review of non-traditional methods for assessing real estate value, mainly in foreign publications. The Western High-Speed Diameter (WHSD) is the most significant transport and infrastructure project of the current decade for St. Petersburg. The most inaccessible part of the city on Vasilievsky Island was analyzed, as the example of new and secondary real estate value changes, were examined from August 2015 to December 2017, by the time when the new transport interchange of WHSD in the western part of the island was constructed and put into commission.  For the study, the authors used the data of the Real Estate Bulletin of St. Petersburg at the end of 2015 and 2017, the data of the cadastral assessment of residential real estate of St. Petersburg of 01.01.2015 and 01.01.2018. Main research method is the study of two-dimensional and conditional distributions of random values of bid prices and cadastral values, which allows obtaining estimates of the market value of the real estate that has passed cadastral registration, and estimates of growth rates.  The comparison of prices of offers with cadastral values applied in the article, with a simple and natural speculation of logarithmically normal distribution, allows us to propose a method of assessing the market  value for any property, even if the information about it is not available in the market data. The obtained numerical results showed a rise in the cost of a significant part of the mass-market for the study period up to 18% without discount on the auction, and up to 9% taking into account the discount on the auction. It turned out to be slightly higher than the general change in the prices of proposals that can be found in advertising publications. A significant change (from 50% to 73%) was found in business-class properties, located in the area with significantly changed species characteristics and improved transport accessibility, in the immediate vicinity of the exit from WHSD.  The results, indicating the growth of market value, allowed us to make a general conclusion about the changes in the attractiveness of the area for different segments of the population of the city: both for the mobile middle class, focused on the mass-market, and for buyers of the premium segment, having increased requirements for the real estate. The authors believe that the growth of the market value of real estate in the area of transport interchanges of modern infrastructure projects could be higher in other macroeconomic conditions. At present, the effective demand of the population is obviously not sufficient.  

Purpose of the research. To examine the dynamics of reproduction of labor potential and labor supply in Russia for the period up to 2035, depending on the impact factors of its reproduction: generation change (changes in the proportion of cohort, entering and leaving at the age composition of the labor potential), fertility and mortality rates, migration balance in the individual age cohorts.  

Materials and methods. The concept of “replacement of generations” is introduced. The coefficient of replacement of generations is developed and its value for labor potential of Russia for the period up to 2035 is calculated. The influence of factors of natural population movement on the dynamics of labor potential is analyzed. The compensating role of the migration factor in the conditions of labor potential reduction is calculated. Russian regions were grouped according to the following criteria: the direction and intensity of changes in the working-age population in 2020–2035 and the proportion of young people aged 0–15 years.  

Results.  – There will be the reduction and aging of labor potential during the second stage of depopulation due to demographic factors.  – The decline in the working-age population in the second wave of depopulation is expected to be smaller than in the first wave.  – In Russia there will be a decrease in the replacement of generations in the contingent of people of the working age.  – The growth of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the forecast period should not be expected, because until 2030 a gradual decrease in the number of women of reproductive age is expected.  – The deepest failure in the population of the working age will be in 2020–2025 accounting for 1.7 million people according to the average variant of the forecast.  – In the forecast period, the labor force in the most productive age of 25–39 years will decrease by 10.5 million people, and the employment rate will decrease from 65.5% to 63.5%.  – Regional features of the formation of demand and supply of labor force in Russia cause the allocation of six homogeneous groups of regions.  – In order to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the migration gain in the average version of ROSSTAT forecast by 2–2.5 times.  

Conclusion. To meet the needs of the economy in the labor force in the forecast period, it is necessary to solve two interrelated tasks: compensation for the reduction of labor potential and ensuring the quality of labor potential necessary for the introduction of new technologies and digitalization of the economy. The unfavorable situation with the formation of labor resources is exacerbated by regional imbalances in the distribution of labor potential and differences in its quality across the country. In the future, migration is once again the only source of replenishment of labor potential and replacement of generations, despite the risks of quality losses due to the emigration of highly qualified persons and young people. It is necessary to take measures to increase the compensatory role of migration in the next five – six years. At the same time, migration policy measures should be considered in close conjunction with other measures to stimulate fertility and reduce mortality, ensuring a positive impact on the components of the population growth.  

Purpose of the study. The study of gender disparity remains relevant for all countries, including the Russian Federation. The study of disparity in quantitative terms: the income distribution, in which the main source – wages, is of particular importance. In the analysis of the gender pay gap, the main factors are such characteristics as the level of education, work status, district, age and the period of the employee’s service. The purpose of this article is a statistical assessment of gender differentiation of wages in Russia based on empirical data and aggregated data from the Federal State Statistics Service. Particular attention is paid to the econometric approach to gender differences in wages.  

Materials and methods. As the main sources of information were data from the Federal State Statistics Service. In addition as the empirical base of the study, the data from the 27th wave of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) – Higher School of Economics were used. The study is based on a modified Mincer`s type equation. Models of the logarithm of wages for all employees, as well as separately for men and women, were developed. To clarify the range of factors, affecting wage differences, models were developed with either the age of the employees or the period of their service. In addition, the factor “socio-professional group” was included, due to the presence of marked gender differentiation among occupational groups. On the base of the constructed models, the gender difference in wages was decomposed.  

Results. The results allowed quantifying the impact of gender on wages, as well as assessing the impact of various factors separately for male and female. It was found a stronger influence of education on the women wages, which indicates, on the one hand, the intellectual advantages of women, and on the other hand, indicates the difficulty of obtaining decent earnings for women with low education. The factor of residence is more affected for men. Decomposition of gender difference in wages allowed us to establish the continued existence of gender inequality in the Russian Federation, ceteris paribus.  

Conclusion. The study of gender wage differentiation remains an important element in the analysis of both wage differentiation in general and gender disparity. The results of the analysis confirmed the persistence of gender differentiation wages in Russia at present. In the future, it is necessary to expand the analysis of gender differentiation of wages with the following characteristics: additional education, health, marital status, differences in the education of husband and wife, and the presence of preschool children.  

The aim of the work is to test the well-known prediction of Karl Marx about the tendency to reduce the income of the proletariat under capitalism. The United States has been selected as the object of study as an advanced capitalist country with a relatively weakly developed public sector of the economy compared to other advanced capitalist countries and relatively small social transfers.  In this work, by income reduction, we mean a massive phenomenon, involving at least 10% of the population and lasting for at least 10 years.  The cyclical nature of the capitalist economy leads to sharp fluctuations in the income of the population, because of which problems arise during data processing: the downward trends can only be detected at sufficiently large intervals of time.  Considering this, as research methods were the study of the largest possible amount of heterogeneous data. Direct data on the income of various statistical units, adopted in American statistics families, households, individuals, persons, direct data on wages, as well as indirect data on quality of life – long-term changes in average people height, life expectancy, specific number of prisoners were reviewed in this paper.  All studied sources confirm the assumption of a long-term (approximately since 1969) decrease in the income of the majority (> 50%) or at least a significant proportion of the US population.  All data presented in the article are the estimates below. In fact, the share of the population subject to a decrease in income is higher, and the depth of the fall in income is greater. The consumer price indices, used in the processing of data do not take into account the greater susceptibility of income of the poor to the influence of inflation; the indices do not take into account the hidden increase in prices for the goods associated with the deterioration of their quality. Externalities, connected with the economic growth are not considered, the poor primarily affect the influence of which.  It is shown that the decline in income is deep enough to have negative physiological consequences – the growth of at least 50% of the population is reduced, the life expectancy of at least 15 ... 30% (depending on the source) of the population falls.  It is noted that the physiological consequences of a decrease in income  have a gender asymmetry – reducing the average median body height and a decrease in life expectancy is more pronounced for women than for men, despite the trend of equalization of incomes/wages for men and women.  The decline in income is deep enough to have negative social consequences: in 1969, it led to a transition from a stable number of prisoners for decades to exponential growth; peak values of the specific number of prisoners in the 2000s are seven times higher than the level of 1969.  As a reason for the decline in income, the hypothesis about the impact of rising US immigration was presented and rejected.  

Purpose of research. To identify the impact of social capital on economic development and income, using mathematical modeling. Also, based on the analysis of modern domestic and foreign literature on the theoretical foundations of social capital, to give a qualitative and quantitative characteristic of such indicators of social capital as marriage, divorce, the ratio of these indicators and the mechanisms of its possible impact on the income of Russian citizens.  

Materials and methods. General scientific methods such as analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, empirical methods were used to obtain scientific results. The theoretical basis of the study is the fundamental theoretical work and publications of Russian and foreign scientists in the field of social capital research as a factor affecting the development of the national economy as a whole and the income of the Russian population, in particular. The authors propose a methodological approach that distinguishes the study from other economists – this is mathematical modeling using the extended Cobb-Douglas production function with the inclusion of indicators representing human and social capital in the number of independent variables of this function. The variable, characterizing social capital is a statistical indicator “the ratio of marriage and divorce”, as a characteristic of the state of social (or its components of moral capital) in Russia. The calculations used data from statistical reference books “Regions of Russia. Socio-Economic Indicators”, “weighted” regressions, the indicator “number of people employed in the region’s economy” was used as a weighted variable.  

Results. Calculations of spatial regression equations, using official statistics are carried out. The statistical evaluation of the effect of social capital on the income differentiation of the population in the regions of Russia is presented. Social capital, as shown by the calculations of the regression equations, along with the fixed capital per worker and the average level of education of the population, employed in the economy of the regions, has a significant impact  on both income and differentiation of income of the population of Russian regions. In addition, calculations indicate that the frequency of divorces adversely affects the income of the employed population of the regions of Russia.  

Conclusion. Calculations and analysis of statistical indicators show that social capital in Russia does not accumulate, but degrades. This can lead to undesirable consequences in terms of economic development, preventing the movement along progressive trajectories. In particular, for example, to the spread of such a negative phenomenon as information asymmetry in different groups: at work or in the family, which can interfere with productive work and result in lower quality of work, service, efficiency and competitiveness. Therefore, there is an urgent need to envisage a number of measures to accumulate and save social capital. Including the strengthening of the family, which makes a significant contribution to the creative processes of trust, and accordingly, the growth of social capital.