METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS
The aim of the paper is to compare three different methods of graphical representation of the inequality: using frequency polygons, Lorentz curves and distribution functions. It is shown that for the representation of real (i.e. incomplete) data, the last is most appropriate. The method of investigation consists in verifying the conformity of the method of graphical representation of inequality to the following three requirements:
1. Insensitivity of the method to the quantization of data.
2. Sensitivity to the width of the entire range of income from zero to income of the richest person provided that information about the wealthy members of society might be incomplete.
3. Visibility. The curve, describing the inequality must have characteristic points (extremes, bends) so that it can be somehow identified. The presence of features in the economic structure of society must be reflected in the qualitative behavior of the curves. The demand is caused by the necessity to draw a conclusion about the mechanism of the movement of goods in society, which led to the appearance of a curve of exactly this form.
The work analyzed direct data on the incomes of Russian citizens published by ROSSTAT (Federal State Statistics Service), Forbes magazine and the Federal Tax Service, indirect data on incomes determined by the distribution of car prices (from two independent sources) and real estate, as well as data from the Credit Suisse Research Institute about property inequality in Russia. The following main conclusions were made. The course of the curves that characterize the real distribution of the population by income, suggests that in society there is only one mechanism for the movement of goods. This is a mechanism of rank exchange, in which the interaction of rich and poor economic agents is characterized by a shift in market prices in favor of the rich and the greater, the more resources the latter has.
The frequency polygons (and therefore the histograms) do not correspond to the first requirement, the Lorentz curves for the second and the third and only the distribution functions correspond to all three of the above requirements, and therefore can be recommended as the main method of graphical representation of the inequality.
The curves of distribution functions from five independent sources (ROSSTAT and Forbes summary data, ROSSTAT and Federal Tax Service summary data, data from two sources on car prices, real estate prices), built on a single chart, practically coincided. Mutual verification of these data allows us to state that they characterize the true picture of inequality inRussia. ROSSTAT data on inequality are substantially underestimated, as well as the data of the Credit Suisse Research Institute (the latter, to a lesser extent).
To assess real inequality, information about the incomes of the richest members of society is important, since 99.976% of the population occupy only 0.0058% of the income scale.
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
Purpose of the study. During the period of the fall of technical and technological stability of the Russian electric power industry, the issues related to the study of the historical experience of the origin, construction and development of such large industrial complexes are actualized. The present study aims to analyze the history of the development of the Russian electric power industry after the October Revolution of 1917, to reveal the influence of the revolution on the electric power industry, to investigate the postwar period of the formation of the Unified Energy System and to assess the current state of the electric power industry in the absence of large-scale projects and programs for updating and modernizing production facilities, propose mechanisms to improve technical and technological stability of electricity of the Russian Federation.
Materials and methods. In 1920, after the October Revolution of 1917, the first plan related to the development of economic activities of the national economy was adopted, which was called the State Plan for the Electrification of Russia. This document contained the main mechanisms and requirements for the formation and establishment of a new branch for the economy. Based on the use of data from the Government of the Russian Federation, Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Joint-stock company “United Energy System of Russia”, as well as electric power companies, the post-revolutionary period of the electric power industry development, the current state and the existing potential of the Russian electric power industry are analyzed. Using the economic-statistical, comparative and logical methods, the main results of the study were presented.
Results. Analyzed indices of the electric power industry in the period 1920–1935 indicate a breakthrough in the development of the Russian energy sector, this period was marked by the implementation of the plans ahead of schedule. In the post-war period, from 1950–1985, there was an increase in the construction of production capacities, The development of the electric power industry after the October Revolution of 1917: origins, prospects and problems at the same time, both heat and hydro and nuclear power plants were built, thereby increasing the installed capacity by more than 10 times in thirty years. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, there has been a halt in the pace of development of the Russian electric power industry, and now the deprecation of the fixed assets increase, the degradation of energy equipment, the aging of power generation technologies, the fall in investment attractiveness and the efficiency of management of generating capacities, which can lead to mass failure equipment and emergency consequences.
The conclusion. Based on the results of the study, we have the following conclusions in the need to search for new mechanisms to improve the sustainability of the electricity industry in the absence of financial resources. In the author's opinion, it is advisable to implement them on three interrelated mechanisms: revising production capacities, eliminating potentially worn-out fixed assets; the formation of common programs for the development of the electric power industry within the framework of the General Electricity Market of the Eurasian Economic Union; the construction of power plants in the border areas, due to which several national states will provide electric power.
The research urgency is caused by the implementation of the Federal strategy of development of small and medium business for the period up to 2030.
The purpose of the study: determination of the regularities characteristic of the sectoral structure of small and medium business. Objectives of the study: to establish the patterns and trends, characterizing the current structure of small and medium business by types of economic activity and the number of their employees, the definition of specific indicators of the number of employees per enterprise, as well as estimation of the distribution of these parameters on the aggregates of entrepreneurial structures in the regions. The results of continuous monitoring activities of small and medium business in 2015 were used as input data. The study was based on the comparison of indicators for the business sector and the full circle of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs.
Research methodology is based on the consideration of sets of entities generated by the sectoral and territorial characteristics. Modeling of the values’ differentiation of the number of workers per enterprise based on the development of the density function of the normal distribution. The quality of the developed models was verified with Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Pearson and Shapiro-Wilk. According to the results of modeling, the mean values of the number of workers on six main activities are set, as well as the intervals of changes of these parameters on the aggregates of small and medium enterprises, located in most regions of the country.
The obtained results have some theoretical significance, in particular, when conducting research, related to the justification of the number of enterprises and number of employees, the formation of measures for the increase of efficiency of activity of the business sector. Given in the article, density function of the normal distribution can be used to establish the plans and programs of development of small and medium entrepreneurship in regions and municipalities.
The practical importance of the research results is connected with the possibility of their use directly by the entrepreneurs (especially the beginners) in assessing the possibilities for the creation of enterprises and determine the expected number of employees. In addition, the results can be used by the departments of regional and municipal authorities, engaged in the formation of projects and programs of business development.
Russia, having lost a significant part of a high-tech industrial complex during the reforms (1993–2000), sharply reducing the state support of scientific research and development, has turned into a power dependent on the conjuncture in the hydrocarbon energy market and from foreign sup-plies of technologies, consumption goods, including those necessary for life support, thus being on the "technological needle". The main factor of development was the resource-producing complex. This situation had a negative impact on the pace of the country's development, on its defense capability and created real prerequisites for the loss of technological, economic, and, in the long run, political sovereignty and disintegration of the state. Nevertheless, the availability of natural resources along with human capi-tal and geographic location is a global competitive advantage of theRussian Federation, and the task is to use this advantage maximally as one of the first echelon countries in the emerging world order. One of the most important tasks was the search for such a direction of technological devel-opment that allows, on the one hand, to preserve Russia's position in the world market of traditional products; on the other – to strengthen positions in the markets of products with a higher degree of processing of Russian raw materials (oil and gas complex and agro-industrial complex); and finally – to master new "growth points" (services, new markets, talents, technologies) in the world market of high-tech products and services. The set tasks assume several solutions. First, scientific and technological development should be based on the strategy of scientific and technological development of theRussian Federationand the national technological initiative, as it sets both resource constraints and priorities in the needs of the economy in new products and new technological solutions. Secondly,Russiashould take into account existing and emerging trends in the development of science and technology directions and priorities of scientific and tech-nological policy of the leading countries. To ensure access to a new technological level of economic development, domestic advanced development and scientific solutions are needed. It is necessary to emphasize the directions in which the powerful technological potential of the future accumulates. In this regard, at present, state support for high-tech and technologyintensive business is rel-evant inRussia. The long-term comprehensive program "National Technological Initiative" is of great importance to create the necessary conditions for ensuring the leadership of Russian organiza-tions in new high-tech markets that will shape the structure of the world economy in the next 15–20 years. In "National Technological Initiative", the state defined "points of growth" in the develop-ment of the economy, i.e. key areas that have a pre-material realization in the branches of high-tech business (EnergyNet, FoodNet, HealthNet, AeroNet, AutoNet, FinNet, NeuroNet, TechNet). The formation of scientific and technological reserve in these key areas will create globally competitive high-tech products and services in the interests of social and economic development ofRussia.
The article is a continuation of the study of statistical sources on the history of the domestic power industry, the first (pre-revolutionary) period of which the author devoted a separate article published in No. 4 of the journal "Statistics and Economics" for 2017. This time the author considers the creation of energy management authorities in theUSSRin the 1920s and analyzes the results of statistical studies of the state and level of development of the country's electric power industry.
It is noted that the main task of energy statistics for this period was the collection and processing of empirical material for the development of fuel, heat and energy balances, as well as analysis of the structure of the power industry of large-scale industry (primary engines and electrical installations).
Accounting for existing and under construction power plants was carried out on a sectoral basis. The Supreme Economic Council of theUSSRmaintained the all-Union accounting of the factory power plants of the industry united in trusts and the largest large-scale public power plants. People's commissariats of the internal affairs of the union republics kept records of urban communal power stations, and the people's commissariats of agriculture – rural electrical installations and electrical installations of the industry for processing agricultural raw materials.
The leading role in the study of quantitative factors of the correlation and changes in the sphere of extraction and processing of energy raw materials, production and consumption of electric energy was played by the Department of Electrical Industry of the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) of theUSSR.
The author identified the main complexes of statistical data on the number and main types of power plants, their installed capacity and the electricity they generated, recorded in the following editions:
– Statistical yearbook for 1918–1920,
– – All-Russia census of industrial establishments of 1920;
– – All-Union urban industrial census of 1923;
– – All-Union survey of power plants of industry for 1926–1928 on 46 branches of the censored industry and 8,887 enterprises, summarized and published in a separate edition in 1931.
Of particular interest is the first detailed technical and economicstatistical study of the energy economy of the factory and general-use power plants for primary materials (the so-called "B" forms) for 1925/26, published by the CSB USSR in 1929. Along with taking into account the power industry proper (mechanical and electrical installations: in terms of the number of units, capacity and produced energy), the first time a continuous census of the boiler equipment of the entire census industry was carried out. According to this statistical source, in the year 1925–26, 3220 million kWh of electricity was consumed in the country, which is 1220 million kWh more than in the pre-war period in 1913 and by 1,180 million kWh (36, 6%) less than in the pre-revolutionary year 1916. Taking into account that the development of the economy of theUSSRas a whole and large industry in particular had a "restorative" nature until 1928/29, this showed that the revolution, the civil war and the post-war devastation had discarded the country's electric power industry, at least 10 years ago.
SOCIAL STATISTICS
In the media and in specialized literature, publications related to attempts to assess the place and role of tolerance in the life of modern society are increasingly encountered. In this connection, a comprehensive scientific analysis of tolerance as an independent and distinctive object of applied research is of great scientific and practical interest. Considering the points of view on the category of "tolerance" gave grounds to believe that there are a number of "white spots" and gaps of methodological nature that do not allow collecting reliable information and identify the main indicators characterizing the state and features of the transformation of tolerance as a social norm reflecting changes in society's value orientations . Tolerance as a characteristic of the moral state of society is a "medal with two sides": on the one hand, it is positive that it promotes mutual understanding, taking into account the recognition of rights and freedoms, with the coordination of different motives, attitudes and orientations without violence and suppression of human dignity, allows to smooth existing irreconcilable interethnic, interethnic, racial contradictions; on the other negative, because it can be perceived as permissiveness, and instill indifference to values. All of the above was justification for the need to present in the article a critical analysis of approaches to the definition and directions of the study of tolerance, which made it possible to reveal its principal features as a complex and multifaceted object of statistical research. In order to implement the principle of objectivity of conclusions, the study was conducted using the following methods: analysis and synthesis, comparison and comparison, generalization, the method of scientific abstraction. The article presents a substantiation of the possibilities of making a quantitative assessment of changes in tolerance in time, taking into account the analysis of information sources, which represent data of predominantly departmental reporting, special sample surveys, and sociological surveys. Evaluation of the information base for the characterization of tolerance has revealed a number of obstacles and difficulties in the way of collecting relevant, complete and accurate statistical information on its development. The authors emphasized the problem of information support of applied research in the field of tolerance, which allowed to formulate a conclusion about the absence and practical impossibility of developing and implementing a universal system of indicators or an integral assessment of tolerance, independent of its kind. The main result of the study was the thesis that there is no single and universally recognized methodology for assessing tolerance, which seems to be a significant obstacle to consolidating the efforts of the state in ensuring national security of the country.
POPULATION STATISTICS
The scientific article is targeted at researchers of social processes in society attributable to the group of social anomalies. In particular, we are talking about one of the most painful issues: the influence of alcohol to the whole society. The impact that begins to destroy the society at the level of its primary cell – families, and which will bring the turn to the finish – the complete, manifested in the degradation of the whole society. The object of the study indicated market of alcoholic beverages, i.e. an economic category, not a medical artifact, as is customary in the vast majority of articles devoted to the problem of such a devastating impact. A statistical study is conducted regarding the quantitative assessment of the labeled dependency: opening patterns, trend analysis, modeling, socio-economic process that determines the level of alcohol in crime. In addition, the issue of the influence of key social factors indicated the relationship of the market of strong drinks and its social consequences is covered. We are talking about the vector of development of the society: at the creation, or survival in the current socio-economic conditions, or even at full degradation. The conditions that each particular person is promised to "balance the books" or to develop. In the first case, and that we are watching from the times of socialist stagnation, "balance" is the products purchased in the alcohol market. Further, impact on society, and as a result, the newly increased demand in the alcohol market. There are obvious implications for the collective cash fund of the state budget, which task is to fund extensive programs to prevent alcoholic crime and preventive measures of a medical nature, help the citizens, and put themselves and society as a dependence on "solution – crafty". In the course of scientific research, extensive information and methodological base is involved. In the first case, statistical data of bodies of state statistics and departmental statistics of the internal affairs bodies. The methodological framework is presented in the traditional tools of statistics science and practice in determining the complexity of almost any ongoing statistical research. These are the methods of correlation and regression, statistical modelling of the relationship between the time series of analytical alignment of the time series and constructing short-term forecasts. Such a set of statistical indicators for the quantitative assessment of patterns and trends, modelling of interrelations of indicators of the market of alcoholic beverages, the level of living of the population and alcohol crime is first considered.
STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS
Purpose of the study. High-tech products are complex products created on the basis of the application of unique production processes, or products that realize their consumer functions using the latest physical and technical effects. The aim of the study is to develop a new method for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for production. The creation of high-tech products is a very complex and expensive process, which involves the formation of a scientific and technical reserve with the wide use of scientific achievements. For example, the process of creating a scientific and technical reserve in the interests of conducting research and development work includes the stages of the formation of scientific, scientific & technological and industrial-technological reserves. Therefore, the assessment of the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production has specific features.
Materials and methods. In the conditions of insufficient funding to create a scientific and technical base and the fundamental impossibility of carrying out fundamental scientific research on a "wide spectrum," the current task is to form such a rational research composition that would allow the creation of high-tech products with high quality and a high degree of the readiness for industrial production. At present, the methodological tools for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production is at the first stage of development, although the relevance of such estimates arises in the process of justifying almost any experimental design work. This ensures an improvement in the quality of the products created. Improving the quality of high-tech products is a multifaceted problem. The main quality components are the technical level in the product documentation, the degree of implementation of this level in the manufacturing process of the product. The research is based on the theory of economic science. A method is proposed for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production, including all its stages: from the formation of the conceptual technological scheme of the product to the calculation of the level of production and technological readiness. An important feature of the developed method is the use of a mathematical apparatus, including the classical method of expert evaluations, taking into account the author's version of its modification in relation to the problem under consideration.
Results. The developed method is based on the presentation of a promising product of high-tech products in the form of a set of functional and technological blocks that include a variety of different technologies and the use of expert assessments to assess the level of readiness of production technologies and the technological readiness of the product for industrial production. The proposed method has scientific novelty, which determines the representation of a promising product of high-tech products in the form of a set of functional and technological blocks, each of which includes a number of different technologies (both existing and new) that allow for their joint use (operation) required characteristics of high-tech products.
The conclusion. Practical use of the developed method of evaluation seems to be the most effective in the framework of modern concepts of managing high-tech enterprises. The offered method can be used at preparation of industrial-technological reserve for perspective products of high-tech production. The efficiency of the developed method for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production is demonstrated on a numerical illustration and tested in the process of managing the production of this product.
ICT IN STATISTICS
The article is dedicated to the description of the experience of automation of the processes of statistical reporting on salaries in Federal State Budgetary Institution «NationalPirogovMedicalSurgicalCenter» of Ministry of Health of theRussian Federationwith the use of information systems.
According to the current legislation of theRussian Federation, within the framework of the successful implementation of the «Road Map» on a national scale, statistical information about salaries of employees of social institutions is collected in various sections of data reporting. It became necessary to develop a tool to promptly collect, process and analyze data on salaries to provide statistical information to social institutions.
The purpose of this article is to familiarize oneself with the concept of multidimensional data representation and to structure information on multidimensional analytical reports within the framework of practical application for solving economic problems related to the formation of statistical reporting on salaries. The algorithm and the procedure for the formation of multidimensional analytical reports are described, both from the methodological and from the practical point of view. As a material for this study, the normative and legal acts of the Russian Federation, statistical and analytical materials of the section «Salaries of certain categories of workers in the social sphere and science» of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, scientific publications and articles of the periodical press, as well as the results of their own research were used.
To facilitate the perception, special attention is given to the description of the basic concepts of multidimensional analytical reporting: measure, performance variables, value. The authors not only gave a definition of multidimensional analytical reporting, but also demonstrated a visual representation of the multidimensional information space of performance variables.
Based on these definitions, the article describes the system for developing multidimensional analytical reporting, examines the stages of designing a multidimensional analytical representation of data, and demonstrates how to set up a multidimensional analytical report for building a multi-level hierarchy in accordance with pre-selected performance variables and dimensions.
Methods of working with multidimensional analytical reporting are also described on the example of the implementation of the formation of the multidimensional analytical report «Statistical reporting on salaries» in the information system of the Federal State Budgetary Institution «NationalPirogovMedicalSurgicalCenter» of Ministry of Health of theRussian Federation.
As a result, the effectiveness of multidimensional analytical reports for collecting, monitoring and analyzing statistical information on salaries was proved. Conducting in-depth analysis and evaluating the results of the implementation of salary targets are the basis for further modeling of the pay system and forecasting of financial results. Thus, the introduction of multidimensional analytical reporting made it possible to facilitate the labor-intensive process of making strategic management decisions by the administration of the institution.
The authors concluded that the availability of such a tool in the healthcare system could help accelerating the operational processing of information for data analysis, as well as the generation of reports in various sections with an established depth of detail.