The article analyzes the state and reveals development features of entrepreneurship in two major regions of Tajikistan – Khatlon and Sughd. The problems of entrepreneurship development in the spheres of industry, agriculture, trade, and services are identified. Special attention is paid to such indicators as the gross regional product, industrial and agricultural production, retail turnover, paid services, etc. The research hypothesis is that the level of entrepreneurship development is heterogeneous in the regions of the Republic of Tajikistan and the existing possibilities are not fully used.

The theoretical and information basis of the study served the works of Tajik and foreign scientists in the field of entrepreneurship development, statistical compilations and data of the Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan for the years 1991–2015. The obtained results allowed revealing a number of development features of entrepreneurship in the Khatlon and Sughd regions of Tajikistan. The analysis of the gross regional product shows that its value has increased several times since 2000, which was achieved due to the development of entrepreneurship. In 2015, 60% of the gross regional product was produced in Khatlon and Sughd regions. Despite the increase in the number of operating small enterprises, the number of joint ventures is decreasing. In this direction, it is necessary to intensify the entrepreneurship development through public-private partnerships. There are significant raw material and labor resources in the regions, which are not fully used. This is largely due to the lack of financial resources, the high cost of credit and high taxes. More attention should be given to these issues.

It is noted that the entrepreneurship development in the regions of the country primarily depends on the energy development. There are huge hydropower resources in the regions, the use of which will give a significant impulse to the entrepreneurship development. 

The industries of the Khatlon region, developed in the early 1990s, are practically not working today. The same situation is observed in many branches of industry of the Sughd region. It is necessary to create conditions for the revival of industries.

Despite the positive trends in the agriculture, there are different problems in the redistribution of the irrigated land, crop yields and productivity of livestock and poultry.

There are still sectoral and regional problems in the more developed sectors of trade and services. Entrepreneurship in the sphere of trade and services is more developed in the Sughd region, as evidenced by the value of retail trade turnover and services rendered. It is necessary to develop a network form of trade in the sphere of trade. It is proposed to pay special attention to the entrepreneurship development in the sphere of tourism.

The study shows that, despite the intensification of entrepreneurship development in the regions, there are still many problems. Further analysis of these problems will allow developing more targeted recommendations for the entrepreneurship development in the regions of the Republic of Tajikistan. 

The article is dedicated to the research of possibilities to use multivariate statistical analysis – cluster analysis – in developing measures for state management of the financial resources of agricultural sector in the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic.

The research is based on the statistics methodology, theory of economics, and on the regional economics of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. Table methods of qualitative data visualization and statistical methods of social and economic phenomena and processes were used as a range of statistical tools in the research. Particularly, the method of cluster analysis was realized by the means of STATISTICA 10.0 application software package for the research purposes. It is known, that using the methodology of cluster analysis allows breaking the analyzed population into groups according similar indicators. For the research purpose, we managed to define the set of indexes, comprising the array of indicators, characterizing the development of agriculture in the region under research.

It is noted that district clusterization in the analyzed Republic according to the indexes of agriculture development will enable to design the measures for financial resources management per each group of uluses of the region more effectively. This is the novelty of the research.

It is noted that the obtained types are homogenous for their structure and meaningfully interpretable: Cluster 1 – districts with high level of agricultural production; Cluster 2 – districts with high financial indexes in agriculture; Cluster 3 – districts with low indexes of agriculture; Cluster 4 – the northern high-profitable districts; Cluster 5 – the northern districts with low indexes of agriculture; Cluster 6 – Yakutsk city, the capital of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic.

The main conclusion of the research is recommendation of the priority measures for agricultural financial resources management in the agricultural sector of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic in order to arrange the conditions for sustainable financial support and social development of the regional agriculture. The research revealed that in the districts of the first cluster with high indexes of the main food resources production, management of the region should focus on the implementation of improvement programs for dairy and meat products processing and storage. Therefore, it is recommended to develop innovative investment activity to boost the level of technological infrastructure, needed for the mentioned measures. It is also emphasized, that the uluses (districts) of the second cluster need to specialize in manufacturing of crop and livestock farming products especially of industrial poultry production, which will eventually promote reasonable financial resources management. The management of the third cluster districts should review their financial expenses for the agricultural sector maintenance taking into account that each district has a great potential for the development of agriculture. In the districts of the fourth group, it is recommended to focus on the development of reindeer herders’ bases, as they receive the most tangible government support among the other northern districts, allow to develop reindeer breeding industry, therefore, to increase the indicator of their own financial resources as the main factor of finance management.

The districts of the fifth cluster are considered to be abnormal because of low level of agriculture development, by virtue whereof it is recommended to resolve problems of population employment, execution of investment projects; it is also recommended to focus on reindeer and horse breeding industry. The sixth cluster is represented by the region capital, where currently the government program for devoting grants on the agriculture development, which will become a primary factor for maximizing the financial resources of the sector under study. 

We consider the Value at Risk (VaR) of a portfolio under stressed conditions. In practice, the stressed VaR (sVaR) is commonly calculated using the data set that includes the stressed period. It tells us how much the risk amount increases if we use the stressed data set. In this paper, we consider the VaR under stress scenarios. Technically, this can be done by deriving the distribution of profit or loss conditioned on the value of risk factors. We use two methods; the one that uses the linear model and the one that uses the Hermite expansion discussed by Marumo and Wolff (2013, 2016). Numerical examples shows that the method using the Hermite expansion is capable of capturing the non-linear effects such as correlation collapse and volatility clustering, which are often observed in the markets.

The article is devoted to those aspects of the system of national accounts, which together perform the role of information base of tax statistics. In our time, the tax system is one of the main subjects of the discussions about the methods and directions of its reform.

Taxes are one of the main factors of regulation of the economy and act as an incentive for its development. Analysis of tax revenues to the budgets of different levels will enable to collect taxes and perform tax burden for various industries. From the amount of tax revenue it is possible to judge scales of reproductive processes in the country. It should be noted that taxes in the SNA are special. As mentioned earlier, in the SNA, taxes on products are treated in the form of income. At the same time, most economists prefer, their consideration in the form of consumption taxes, and taxes on various financial transactions (for example: taxes on the purchase/sale of securities) are treated as taxes on production, including in cases when there are no services. It would be rational to revise and amend the SNA associated with the interpretation of all taxes and subsidies, to ensure better understanding and compliance with user needs.

Taxes are an integral part of any state and an indispensable element of economic relations of any society. In turn, taxes and the budget are inextricably linked, as these relations have a clearly expressed, objective bilateral character. Taxes are the main groups of budget revenues, which makes it possible to finance all the government agencies and expenditure items, as well as the implementation of institutional subsidy units that make up the SNA sector “non-financial corporations”.

The second side story is that taxes – a part of the money that is taken from producers and households. The total mass of taxes depends on the composition of taxes, tax rates, tax base and scope of benefits. The bulk of tax revenues also depends on possible changes in classification of tax revenues and giving them a certainty of non-tax revenues. In modern reality, the taxes serve as basis on which the economic and financial security rests, as taxes provide financial resources to all levels of the economic system of our country. At all stages of the humankind existence, none of the states has managed without a system of taxes, to one degree or another. History tax goes back to the distant past. Taxes were always presented in the form of contributions of citizens in different types. The procedure for the collection of taxes was necessary for functioning of the political machinery.

The article formalizes and substantiates a serious accounting problem related to the terminologically ambiguous interpretation of the categories, applicable in different accounting systems: accounting, tax and statistical accounting. The boundaries of the same cash flows associated with execution by the taxpayer of obligations to the state, are different for these information systems. Other categories are not perceived in the different types of accounting in general, such as, for example, resource taxes. Moreover, most, not the individual, namely most of the terms, categories, definitions and approaches from the experts in the field of law generally cause confusion. The need for integration of procedures, conversion to a common methodological denominator of the borders of cash flows and of the object of study is obvious. 

The content of modern management accounting is formed in conjunction with the rapid development of information technology, using complex algorithms of economic analysis. It makes possible the practical realization of the effective management idea - management of key performance indicators, which certainly includes the indicators of financial performance of economic entities.

An important place in this process is given to the construction and calculation of factorial systems of economic indicators. A substantial theoretical and empirical experience has been accumulated to solve the problems that arise. The aim of this study is to develop a universal modern model for factor analysis of finance results, allowing multivariate solutions both current and promising character with monitoring in real time.

The realization of this goal is achievable by using artificial neural networks (ANN) in an appropriate simulation, which are increasingly used in the economy as a tool for supporting management decisionmaking. In comparison with classical deterministic and stochastic models, ANN brings the intellectual component to the modeling process. They are able to learn to function based on the gained experience, the result of allowing less and less mistakes.

The article reveals the advantages of such an alternative approach. An alternative approach to factor analysis, based on the method of neural networks, is proposed. Advantages of this approach are marked. The paper presents a phased algorithm of modeling complex cause-and-effect nature relationships, including factors’ selection for the studied result, the creation of the neural network architecture and its training. The universality of such modeling lies in the fact that it can be used for any resulting indicator.

The authors have proposed and described a mathematical model of the factor analysis for financial indicators. It is important that the model included the factors of both direct and indirect actions with a range of quantitative parameters: conditional-ideal, real, the worst. The copyright factor selection algorithm complements the developed model. Because of the functioning of the neural network, a management report on the financial performance of the company is formed. During the research, the following methods have been used: the system approach in factors’ classification of financial results, factor analysis and mathematical modeling at development of the corresponding neural model. The research is based on a complex of theoretical and empirical developments of domestic and foreign authors. The actual digital materials of the real economic entity are involved in the verification phase of the research results.

The advantage of the model is the ability to track changes in the input data and indicators in the online mode, to build quality forecasts for future periods with different combinations of the whole set of factors. The proposed instrument of factor analysis has been tested in the activities of real companies. The factors can ensure growth in terms of financial results; visualization of business processes is enhanced, as well as the probability of making rational management decisions. 

We consider the Value at Risk (VaR) of a portfolio under stressed conditions. In practice, the stressed VaR (sVaR) is commonly calculated using the data set that includes the stressed period. It tells us how much the risk amount increases if we use the stressed data set. In this paper, we consider the VaR under stress scenarios. Technically, this can be done by deriving the distribution of profit or loss conditioned on the value of risk factors. We use two methods; the one that uses the linear model and the one that uses the Hermite expansion discussed by Marumo and Wolff (2013, 2016). Numerical examples shows that the method using the Hermite expansion is capable of capturing the non-linear effects such as correlation collapse and volatility clustering, which are often observed in the markets.

The purpose of research – to identify the prospects for the use of neural network approach in relation to the tasks of economic forecasting of logistics performance, in particular of volume freight traffic in the transport system promiscuous regional freight traffic, as well as to substantiate the effectiveness of the use of artificial neural networks (ANN), as compared with the efficiency of traditional extrapolative methods of forecasting. The authors consider the possibility of forecasting to use ANN for these economic indicators not as an alternative to the traditional methods of statistical forecasting, but as one of the available simple means for solving complex problems.

Materials and methods. When predicting the ANN, three methods of learning were used: 1) the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm-network training stops when the generalization ceases to improve, which is shown by the increase in the mean square error of the output value; 2) Bayes regularization method - network training is stopped in accordance with the minimization of adaptive weights; 3) the method of scaled conjugate gradients, which is used to find the local extremum of a function on the basis of information about its values and gradient. The Neural Network Toolbox package is used for forecasting. The neural network model consists of a hidden layer of neurons with a sigmoidal activation function and an output neuron with a linear activation function, the input values of the dynamic time series, and the predicted value is removed from the output. For a more objective assessment of the prospects of the ANN application, the results of the forecast are presented in comparison with the results obtained in predicting the method of exponential smoothing.

Results. When predicting the volumes of freight transportation by rail, satisfactory indicators of the verification of forecasting by both the method of exponential smoothing and ANN had been obtained, although the neural network showed the best result (the average relative forecast error was 8.97% for ANN and 11.21% for the method of exponential smoothing, respectively). This can explained by the fact that the temporal dynamic range of the values of the volumes of cargo transportation by this type of transport, for the period under review, has a nonlinear but uniformly changing character. In the case of forecasting the volumes of cargo transportation by road, the time series of initial values for the reporting period is simultaneously non-linear and unevenly changing. This explains the large values of forecasting errors by the method of exponential smoothing (the average relative forecast error of 47.47% for methods of exponential smoothing ); the forecast error with ANN was 13.97%, therefore the results of the prediction obtained by the method of exponential smoothing are considered unsatisfactory, and for ANN – satisfactory.

The conclusion. The results of the study confirm the feasibility of using trained artificial neural networks in forecasting the volumes of freight traffic with different cargo flows that have the initial statistical data of which have an uneven nonlinearly changing character in the time dynamic series. A sufficiently high verification in the application of ANN for difficult-to-forecast indicators of the transport process confirms the practical significance of the application of this method in the modeling of the logistics network. 

Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, signed the decree on January 5, 2016, declaring Ecology Year to be held in 2017 in Russia. This decree aims at drawing attention to the significance of environmental problems, and improving the situation with environmental security in the country. Our article considers the development of scientific research exploring the interrelations and interdependencies between population and environment, theoretical approaches and methodology of these studies. On the scientific and practical side the article analyses the available typologies of demoecological situations and develops own demoecological typology as a policy instrument aimed at sustainability in population development and environmental security.

In the 70s – 90s of the last century, the scientific community paid close attention to the “environmental issue” problem, and there existed the awareness of the interdependence between environment and population. The study on population-environment interdependence was conducted in the Center for Population Studies at the Faculty of Economics of Lomonosov Moscow State University within the framework of new field of the system of population knowledge – ecology of population, considering the demographic and environmental development in close connection. Multiple demoecological situations identified in the studies, were logically followed by the development of the typology of demoecological systems using environmental principles (stage development, diversity and territorial differentiation). The unification of all economic regions of the Soviet Union according to various demoecological factors allowed the authors to summarize all diverse situations, showing similarities in their development, and to highlight the types of interactions between the elements of demoecological regional systems that can be considered to be the basis of comprehensive long-term program of population development. In the late 90-s, this approach, using ranking and indexing methodology was applied to assess the level of demoecological development of the Russian Federation regions. It was resulted in the creation of the specified and amended (in relation to the study conducted in the beginning of 1980s) system of basic indexes in order to monitor changes in demoecological systems, and new, integrated indexes, more accurately characterizing the state of the environment and population development.

The research, made in this period, has led to resulting conclusion about the scientific and practical feasibility to take into consideration the typological features of the region while developing long-term programs for sustainable socio-economic development. The similarity of the same demoecological situations allows using the experience of the regions belonging to the same type, reducing the risk of errors in setting the objectives of development programs and the development of measures for their implementation. This conclusion, made 25 years ago, is very relevant today, when a growing number of experts argues that replication of methods of implementation of regional policy is common thing for all the regions of the Russian Federation and has a negative impact on the unity of economic space of the country. 

The aim of the research, presented in the paper is the analysis for the formation and development of the basic theory of population policies in the scientific school of Professor Dmitry I.Valentey (Lomonosov Moscow State University). The research was dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Population Chair of Economics Faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University. The graduates of the Chair worked and continue to work actively in the field of fundamental and applied research in demography, demographic education, ministries and departments of the socio-economic unit.

The works of the 1960s – early 90s (monographs, collections of scientific articles, tutorials), which dealt with the concepts and their interrelationships, approaches to understanding the ratio of social policy, population and demographic policies, the structure of these important components of social policy served as the basis for the analysis. In the study the comparative analysis of the positions of different authors has been made, including other research schools, discussion issues are highlighted, relating to the implementation of the population policies. This article shows the realization of the idea of an interdisciplinary approach to the study of problems of population management in practice, including the studies and discussions of representatives of different sciences (demographers, sociologists, historians, economists, geographers, lawyers, etc.).

In the final part of the paper the practical steps are considered to enhance the population policy in the USSR in the early 80s, regional peculiarities of the phased introduction of new measures to provide state support for families with children in 1981–1983, as well as approaches to development of regional programmes of population policies in the late 70’s and 80’s.

The research has received a new analytical material that reveals the attitude on the definition and content of the basic concepts (demographic policy and population policy), the formulation of goals, objectives, principles and approaches to assessment of the effectiveness of demographic policy.

This study shows the difficulties facing the practical implementation of theoretical notions about population policy, the dependence of the population policies on specific historical and socio-economic conditions. The collapse of the Soviet Union has put the issue of developing conceptual frameworks and mechanisms for the implementation of demographic policies in the new economic and socio-political conditions. At the same time, theoretical and applied researches in the field of population policy during the USSR epoch largely retained their relevance, including the field of new support measures for families with children, the development of criteria and indexes for assessing the impact of demographic policies, improving the implementation methods of demographic programmes with regional peculiarities of the demographic situation.

We still, as 50 years ago, are looking for the ways to increase fertility, to counter the threats of depopulation, and the ways to reduce the backlog in the life expectancy and optimize migration. Critical thinking on the theory and practice of population policies will help today in searching the opportunities to intensify the demographic policy and enhance its effectiveness, at both the federal and regional levels. 

The article is devoted to the multifaceted and complex problems, associated with comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of the state family policy. A significant stage in the development of state family policy is the adoption of the concept of state family policy in 2014. Evaluation of measures’ effectiveness in the field of family policy is the subject of many publications. However, most authors pay their attention to the individual events. It appears that the effectiveness of implementation of strategic documents is defined by the detailed development of the documents, objective approach to formation of system of target indicators.

The aim of the article is the analysis of the structure of the Concept of family policy, adopted in 2014, and implementation plan of its first stage. It allows identifying whether the ineffectiveness of family policy is determined by the logic strategic documents in the field of family policy. The possibilities for monitoring the effectiveness of the action plan and the first results of the implementation of the Concept, consistency of the logic in these documents are considered.

Materials and methods. The conclusions of the article are based on the analysis of quantitative and qualitative indicators of family policy. The data of statistical monitoring of family policies based on official statistical reporting and representative sample surveys of ROSSTAT, and the experience of monitoring the National strategy of actions in interests of children served as the information base of the study.

Results. Currently, the performance evaluation is conducted formally; complexity evaluation for the implementation of the Concept of family policy is largely related to the logic of formation of the Concept and its expected results, the disadvantages of the formation of plans for its implementation, the lack of necessary information and special monitoring in the framework of the implementation of the Concept. In the framework of the Concept in accordance with the objectives, nine areas are highlighted, for which a list of indicators of the results has defined. The proposed indicators were not assigned to specific sections of the Concept. A number of them do not have specific quantitative measurements, which poses a substantial problem associated with the inability to conduct an objective assessment of the effectiveness of specific measures. The analysis of the logic of the Concept and implementation plan of its first stage showed that in many respects goals, objectives, indicators and financial support do not balance them.

Conclusions. The problem of the ineffectiveness of large-scale conceptual and strategic documents is often linked with the logic of the document, a formal approach to the formation of a system of indicators. A number of measures, provided in the Concept, are not reflected in the implementation plan. The analysis allowed formulating proposals for clarifying the mechanism of implementation and evaluation of the effectiveness of the Concept. The most important of the proposals are the definition of the desired level of performance, projecting performance indicators of family policies in view of conflicting demographic and socio-economic dynamics; the need to develop the integrated statistical indicator of the effectiveness of family policy, covering activities in all areas. 

The article specifies the correlation between economic demography and the economy of population as the most important scientific areas of modern research. It is concluded that the Russian scientific community lags in the development of these sciences from the world scientific thought. Special attention is paid to the works and ideas of S. Kuznets and Amartya Sen as outstanding researchers of the interrelationships between the population and the economy. It is emphasized that their contribution was not only theoretical but also of practical importance. The importance of G. Myrdal’s works for modern studies of the consequences of population aging is considered. The article examines foreign training courses on “Population Economics”, presented at the Universities of Wisconsin and McMaster, their analysis led to the conclusion that the preparation of textbooks on courses is less productive than the use of scientific articles in journals, containing more recent ideas and achievements of science. The author considers the system, proposed in the course Michel Grignon and Byron G. Spencer «The Economics of Population» more preferable. The article substantiates the opinion that the economic theory of well-being should be the core of the population economy. It is concluded that the differences between economic demography and the economy of population are not just differences between the micro- and macro levels, as some authors write, but the transition to large scales and entropy.

The author identifies three most important areas of demo-economic research, which include research in the field of human capital, international economic migration, especially remittance, analysis of the stratification of the population and society by the income in the global and national economies. One can single out the general area of interests of the population economy and economic demography in which these sciences are almost impossible to divide and in which only their joint research is effective: the economy of aging and the economy of generations.