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No 4 (2017)
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https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2017-4

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

4-13 998
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to verify the validity of the prevailing opinion about the existence of oppressed and oppressive peoples or, equivalently, about the cumulative causality of international inequality, or about the existence of rank exchange between peoples as independent decision-makers of economic entities.

The paper analyzes the statics and dynamics of inequality in the per capita GDP of the countries of the world as a whole, the dynamics of international inequality in the “metropolitan-neocolonies” pairs on the examples of the USA-Latin American countries and France-CFA countries (former colonies of France in Africa), and the dynamics of inter-regional inequality Per capita income in Russia. For the study, the World Bank and Rosstat data were used.

The degree of inequality in the world’s countries per capita GDP was compared with the degree of inequality of citizens of individual countries in terms of per capita income, found from indirect sources – distributions of prices for used cars in Russia and Germany. The need to use indirect data on the distribution of citizens by income is due to the incompleteness of official statistics. It is established that the inequality between the countries of the world is insignificant in comparison with the inequality of citizens in a single country.

 It is shown that, despite numerous examples of inequivalent transactions imposed by poor corporations of rich countries (regions), international inequality has declined since at least 1970, the inequality between France and the CFA countries has been declining since 1994, and between the United States and Latin America since 1960, Interregional inequality in Russia – since 1997. In conditions of rank exchange (cumulative causality of inequality), a long-term reduction in inequality is impossible: it can only grow, shrinking only during periods of crisis.

As inequality declines, it was concluded that peoples (countries, regions) do not practice rank-sharing in relations with each other or, equivalently, the cause of international inequality is not cumulative. Statistical data do not confirm the existence of oppressed peoples and oppressor peoples and generally do not confirm the existence of “peoples” as monolithic economic entities acting in their own interests, since the people are not monolithic, but are divided by rank exchange into antagonistic classes.

Unequal international transactions are often practiced, however, not between rich and poor peoples, but between representatives of exploiting and exploited classes, even if belonging to different peoples. The overwhelming majority of the so-called “oppressor people” refers to the exploited classes and is not the beneficiary of such transactions, otherwise international inequality would grow.

Non-equivalent international transactions are often practiced, however, not between rich and poor peoples, but between representatives of exploiting and exploited classes, even if belonging to different peoples. The overwhelming majority of the so-called “oppressor people” refers to the exploited classes and is not the beneficiary of such transactions, otherwise international inequality would grow.

14-21 1240
Abstract

The aim of the research is to analyze the subject matter of a country’s competitiveness and to characterize statistical indexes of competitiveness known in the international practice from the perspective of a more elaborated theory of market competition. This aim follows from the identified problems. First, there are no generally accepted interpretation and joint understanding of competition and competitiveness at country level. Even the international organizations giving estimations of global competitiveness disagree on definitions of competitiveness. Secondly, there is no relation to the theory of market competition in the available source materials on competitiveness of the country without original methodology. Thirdly, well-known statistical indexes of global competitiveness do not have enough theoretical justification and differ in sets of factors. All this highlights the incompleteness of the methodology and methodological support of studying competitiveness at country level.

Materials and methods. The research is based on the methodology of statistics, economic theory and marketing. The authors followed the basic principle of statistical methodology – requirement of continuous combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, when the research begins and ends with qualitative analysis. A most important section of statistical methodology is widely used – construction of statistical indexes. In the course of the analysis, a method of statistical classifications is applied. A significant role in the present research is given to the method of generalizing and analogue method, realizing that related terms should mean similar and almost similar contents. Modeling of competition and competitiveness is widely used in the present research, which made it possible to develop a logical model of competition following from the competition theory.

Results. Based on the definitions’ survey the analysis of the subject matter of global competitiveness and the methodological support development for studying competitiveness in the article presents the following results: two approaches to understanding competitiveness at country level were formulated – market and factor ones; extensive analysis of the factor approach to national competitiveness was given; the theory of market competition gained traction and a logical model of market competition was suggested; notions of the object and subject of choice were introduced, that are key to the characteristics of market competition; grounding for the absence of analogy between competitiveness of a product and a country was put forward; statistical indexes of global competitiveness of countries were characterized and the absence of the shared vison about what such index measures was identified; acceptable cases of analogy of the country’s competitiveness with the seller’s and buyer’s competitiveness were revealed.

Conclusion. The research showed that the category of global (national, country) competitiveness does not tally with the theory of market competition, which makes its common use difficult without concretizing the content and developing additional grounding. The groundwork on calculating national competitiveness indexes, available in literature, requires justification, but they can and should serve as the theoretical and practical basis for developing a scientifically grounded system of indicators (indexes), characterizing the economic and social spheres of the government activities, and different sides of the national economy. Conducting such a research within the framework of analyzing national competitiveness should not be considered promising. 

22-32 1595
Abstract

The article is devoted to the problem of creation and development of the energy statistics of the Russian Empire of the initial stage of electrification and the formation of the energy economy, which is related to: 1) the economic upsurge of the 1890s; 2) the new economic recovery of 1907–1913 and 3) the militarization of industry in 1914–1916. The real technical and economic indicators and complex statistical data of the pre-revolutionary electric power industry were either hushed up or deliberately distorted during the Soviet era. Even in the encyclopaedic literature it was considered that pre-revolutionaryRussia“was on one of the last places in the world” for the production of electricity. The author analyzes statistical surveys (censuses) of the manufacturing industry for 1900 and 1908 (the “varzar censuses”), which gave the first material on the state of its energy sector, namely: the composition, quantity and power of primary engines and electric motors. For the first time in historiography, the data of the “energy censuses” of the Ministry of Finance for 1905 and 1913 on the number and capacity of central public power stations and private power stations (block stations) of industrial enterprises, organizations and institutions are cited. The data of the census were conducted with the participation of the apparatus of factory and factory inspections in 1906 and in1916 inall provinces of the Russian Empire, with the exception of six provinces of the frontline zone. A lot of work was done to record electricity production / consumption, which was conducted by the Russian electrotechnical community. According to incomplete data published in 1917 by the Secretariat of the Standing Committee of the VII All-Russia Electrotechnical Congress, from 1905 to 1913 (that is, for 8 years) the total number of power stations in the Russian Empire increased by 1.7 times, and the amount of electricity produced by them Has grown in 3,8 times. The last objective study of the state of the pre-revolutionary electric power industry in 1920 was carried out by the developers of the GOELRO plan from the 6th (Petrograd) group (engineers T.F. Makariev, A.I. Firsov, Y.A. Samoilovich and professor N.N. Georgievsky). With the help of expert assessments, they established that in 1916 all public power stations and block stations of the census industry produced approximately 4,730 million kWh of electric power-twice as much as in 1913. Based on the revealed range of historical statistical sources, it is proved that in 1913–1916, The Russian Empire in terms of electricity production was one of the top five industrialized countries. The dynamic development of the electric power industry in the Russian Empire was interrupted by the succession of social and political cataclysms that shook the very foundations of Russian statehood. This period, which lasted until the end of 1921, was characterized by a complete degradation of the electric power industry. The fuel hunger, separation from the RSFSR of Baku and the Donbass, paralyzed the work of many power plants, both factory and general use. 

SOCIAL STATISTICS

33-40 5315
Abstract

Research aim. The article analyzes the state of unemployment in theRussian Federation. Modern macroeconomic conditions and the state of the labor market necessitate identifying population groups, constituting unemployment risks. Both representatives of different schools of economic thought and modern Russian scholars devoted their work to studying unemployment problems and the need for government regulation of employment and unemployment. However, a more accurate characteristic of the level and state of unemployment requires a more thorough analysis.

Materials and methods. In order to present the general picture of unemployment in theRussian Federation, structural analysis of the phenomenon is used with the help of corresponding indexes, which, in our opinion, make it possible to evaluate the level and state of unemployment in detail. Indexes of absolute structure changes, degree of absolute shift intensity were used for analysis, the level of concentration was determined etc.

Results. The calculations revealed the most vulnerable groups in the structure of the unemployed, showing the necessity of searching for and applying new forms and tools of government policy for reducing the level of unemployment. According to the official statistics, the level of unemployment inRussia was 5.6 % in 2015. The labor market in theRussian Federation is characterized by a gender gap – unemployed men outnumber unemployed women by 7.8%. Besides, there is a consistent trend of increase in the number of university-educated unemployed people. According to the calculations, the percentage of women with higher and secondary education is higher than the share of men. The difference in the structure of the unemployed among women and men in regards to education is in average about 14% of the maximum possible. Quite a high level of youth unemployment (approximately 25%) describes the unstable position of the given group in the labor market.

Calculations of Grofman, Kazinets and Ryabtsev indexes confirm it. Nevertheless, the level of concentration in distribution of unemployment among youth tends to decrease in recent years. Besides, there is a higher level of unemployment in the country as compared to the city. Unemployment in Russian regions is characterized by considerable irregularity, too. The level of unemployment amounts to 6–8% in the major territory of the country. The situation is worst in the Karachay-Cherkess andChechenRepublics, as well as in Ingushetia and Tyva. Conclusion. The analysis of unemployment revealed differences in the structure of the unemployed of different population groups. It suggests the reasonability of using new modern tools of government policy for solving unemployment problems. The most effective measures are the following: application of social partnership mechanism, stimulation of self-employment, small business support, personnel development, organization of public works, setting job quotas, economic support of employers, use of flexible employment forms of the population, information support of labor market, support of non-state services in the sphere of population employment. 

41-53 74372
Abstract

It is known that overworking as well as deficiency of work (plenty of free time) are major factors of a suicide on an individual level which allows when passing to the level of a real social group (employees) to suppose of existence of a certain optimum of working time or a parabolic (U-shaped) connection between the suicide rate and an average duration of working time.

From the theoretical point of view the supposed parabolic dependence of the level of prevalence of suicides from an average duration of working time of employees is described from the point of view of suicidology: excessive increase of working time is an external tendency which prevents satisfaction of actual needs of an employee and limits physically the space (off-work time) for their realization. Multidirectional tendencies form a life conflict which has crucial significance when transferring to a suicidal phase. The objective of this article consists in a qualitative assessment of an influence of “an average duration of working time” on the level of prevalence of suicides when other things are fixed (economic, social, religious and others) in a relatively stable social situation. For the econometric analysis, reliable and comparable data of the European database of detailed mortality data of the World Health Organization and Eurostat are used for 22 European countries for the period from 1998 till 2012. Based on analysis of a dynamics of the studied variables different hypothesis have been made: 1) about existence of statistically significant linear or logarithmic dependence of the level of prevalence of suicides from an average factual duration of working time inside a country 2) about existence of a parabolic (U-shaped) dependence of the level of prevalence of suicides from an average factual duration of working time between countries. A set of panel unit root tests and stationarity testify that the examined variables are unsteady variables with integratedness order I(1). The results of Pedroni panel cointegration tests show that the studied variables are likely cointegrated. The models of panel regression of linear, logarithmic and parabolic specifications are actualized: namely the model for mean values, the model with fixed effects and the model with random effects.

As a result of econometric analysis it was determined that the difference in the level of prevalence of suicides of employees in timing inside one country is best explained by a logarithmic dependence from an average factual duration of working time by using a model with fixed effects and a difference between countries – by U-shaped dependence by using a model with random effects. As a result it was established that using the minimal solution of the equation of the parabolic model with random effects, the optimal value of the average actual duration of the working week (38,7 hours) is determined, at which the minimum of suicides is reached. Existence of a best value of working time opens up opportunities for scientifically proven regulation of working time towards optimum in order to reduce the number of suicides.

54-64 791
Abstract

Research aim: The authors analyzed the various methods of setting weight values for factors incorporated in multidimensional composite indicators. The focus is drawn to composite indicators of sports development; in particular, the Football Development Index was used for empirical calculations. The authors conducted this research in order to determine the most significant aspects of global football development as well as to increase the robustness of the Football Development Index results. Due to such method, the article helps the researchers to treat the procedure of setting weight values more thoroughly, which is often one of the most disputable methods of sports indicators.

Data and methods: The Football Development Index (FDI) and its components are reviewed as a case study for conducting the calculations. This paper was able to derive new weight values for factors included in the FDI methodology using five approaches: equal weights, budget allocation process, analytical hierarchy process, frequencybased and principal component analysis. The FDI was recalculated using all five approaches and tested for similarities using Pearson correlation coefficients.

Results: The authors were able to calculate five different variations of the FDI using the different weighting methods. The calculations concluded that the derived weight values significantly varied depending on the adopted weighting approaches even though the three indicator groups comprising the overall FDI were given equal importance. Then again, the calculations of the index itself produced practically identical results. The research findings of the paper draw the authors to the conclusion that the selection of a weighting method in constructing composite indicators does not play a significant role in analyzing sensitiveness and validity of final calculations results.

Conclusion: Therefore, it is more advisable to choose simpler weighting methods from a methodological standpoint in order for the general public and policy-makers to be able to interpret the results of such composite indicators of sports development easily. Academic researchers and policy-makers in constructing similar composite indexes of sports development and other socio-economic areas may adopt the analytical and empirical findings of this paper.

POPULATION STATISTICS

65-72 1103
Abstract

The purpose of the article is to define labor losses of the Amur region because of the competition of regions. Each region, directly or indirectly, seeks to attract and keep in its territory highly skilled labor force. Shortage of labor force slows down development of the economy of the region. Thus, because of the depopulation, the demand for the produced and consumed goods and services in the region is decreasing. The decrease in demand influences tax reduction and non-tax revenues in budgets of various levels, reduction of employment of labor resources, increase in unemployment, increase in cost of products and rendered services, reduction of the gross regional product, growth of social tension in the society.

Under conditions of the competition between regions for labor resources, other things being equal, the outflow of labor resources occurs from regions with a rather low level of compensation to regions with a rather high level of the salary. At the same time, the population leaves, as a rule, the provincial and less developed regions and concentrates in the largest metropolitan areas. In the competition for labor resources some regions win and get essential advantages in social and economic development, others sustain considerable losses. Statistical methods of analyzing social and economic phenomena and processes were used as tools for carrying out the research: indexes of dynamics, structure, and tabular and graphic methods of visualization of quantitative data.

As a result of the conducted statistical research, it was found out that the population of the Amur region decreases annually, at the same time the decline in the population of the region is long-term and steady in nature. Over 25 years the Amur region lost population amounting to the population of the whole city. The present work shows that the tendency of demographic aging of the population characteristic of many regions of the country is observed in the Amur region. Decrease in the population of the region is caused by natural losses by 17% and population shift from the region by 83%. Differences in the standard of living in regions prevail among the reasons of population shift, which is one of the major factors, inducing the population to change its residence. Generally, residents of the Amur region go to the Far East, Central, Siberian and Southern federal districts. Among the regions of the Far East, preference is given to the Khabarovsk Region and Primorsky Krai. Not in large amounts, but the population of Priamurye actively goes to the main residence to foreign countries, as well, most often to the neighboring China.

Fears of people, connected with the construction of Vostochny spaceport, are an important factor of the population outflow out of borders of the region. The information about using a toxic type of fuel – heptyl – on rockets launch became the next reason of citizens’ departure of borders of the region.

Regions compete among themselves for attracting labor resources to separate sectors of economy. At the same time, interest is attracted first by those types of economic activity that provide the greatest contribution to production of the gross regional product. Economic growth of the region depends on existence of sufficient amount of labor force in its territory, and on opportunities of their attraction and fixing. At the same time, the quality of labor force is important, that is the most essential factor of making decisions on creating new productions in the region, directly raising the questions of competitiveness of the territory.

WAGES STATISTICS

73-81 1159
Abstract

The aim of the study was to analyze the present regularities, specific to the employees’ salaries of aggregates of small and medium enterprises related to the three dimensional categories and located in different regions of Russia. The following tasks were solved: the indexes, characterizing average monthly salary of employees based on the mentioned enterprises were assessed, belonging to different size categories and located in each of the regions; the relations were established between the average monthly salaries of employees of aggregates of small and medium enterprises and the cost of living in all regions of the country.

Preliminary results of stopwatch reading of small and medium business activities in 2015 were used as initial data. The research was based on the comparison of indexes for the entrepreneurial sector and the full range of enterprises and organizations.

Modeling differentiation of salaries’ values of small and medium enterprises aggregations, as well as its relationship to the values of the subsistence level was based on the development of the density function of normal distribution. The quality of the developed models was checked according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Pearson and Shapiro-Wilk criteria.

The obtained results have some theoretical significance, in particular, when conducting research related to the justification of the proposed wage of employees of enterprises different in number, the formation of measures for increasing efficiency of the entrepreneurial sector activity. Density functions of normal distribution given in the paper can be used in the justification of concepts, plans and programs of developing small and medium entrepreneurship in regions and municipalities. The practical importance of research results connected with the possibility of their use by entrepreneurs directly (especially by beginners) when assessing the potential of enterprise creation and definition of employees’ proposed salaries. In addition, the results can be used by the departments of regional and municipal authorities engaged in the formation of projects and programs of entrepreneurship development, including entrepreneurship development in regions and municipalities with a low level of employee’s wages of small and medium enterprises. Further development of small and medium entrepreneurship in Russia puts forward the urgent need for raising the salary in this sector of the national economy based on increasing the number of highly productive jobs through mechanization and automation of production processes, widespread introduction of innovation. Special attention must be paid to the issue of equalizing levels of wages in the enterprise sector and the national economy.

82-89 1126
Abstract

The article “An average salary: approaches to the index determination” is devoted to studying various methods of calculating this index, both used by official state statistics of the Russian Federation and offered by modern researchers.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the existing approaches to calculating the average salary of employees of enterprises and organizations, as well as to make certain additions that would help to clarify this index.

The information base of the research is laws and regulations of the Russian Federation Government, statistical and analytical materials of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia for the section «Socio-economic indexes: living standards of the population», as well as materials of scientific papers, describing different approaches to the average salary calculation. The data on the average salary of employees of educational institutions of the Khabarovsk region served as the experimental base of research. In the process of conducting the research, the following methods were used: analytical, statistical, calculated-mathematical and graphical.

The main result of the research is an option of supplementing the method of calculating average salary index within enterprises or organizations, used by Goskomstat of Russia, by means of introducing a correction factor. Its essence consists in the specific formation of material indexes for different categories of employees in enterprises or organizations, mainly engaged in internal secondary jobs. The need for introducing this correction factor comes from the current reality of working conditions of a wide range of organizations, when an employee is forced, in addition to the main position, to fulfill additional job duties. As a result, the situation is frequent when the average salary at the enterprise is difficult to assess objectively because it consists of calculating multiple rates per staff member. In other words, the average salary of employees is artificially high because it does not include a correction for the intensity of activity or workload of the employee. The offered option of calculating the average salary is similar in nature to the calculation of the salary labor activities based on tariff rates. However, in contrast to the existing methods according to this aspect of research, the correction factor under study is aimed at accounting ratios for the internal and external secondary jobs within the same organization or enterprise. This is the novelty of the conducted research. It appears that the proposed version of calculating the statistical average salary will be more objective to reflect the specifics of remuneration in organizations and enterprises. Consequently, this will allow for a more qualitative analysis in the research of the key socio-economic indexes of living standards of the population and contribute to a more productive work of the government authorities, enterprises and institutions that use the average salary index in their future activities.

EDUCATION STATISTICS

90-98 963
Abstract

In the conditions of increasing competition in the market of educational services, one of the main tasks of the university management is the effective management of its intellectual potential. This will make it possible to increase the competitiveness of Russian universities. To effectively manage the intellectual potential of an educational institution, its objective evaluation is necessary. Evaluation of the intellectual capacity of the educational institution will allow to quickly manage the activity of the university and determine those areas of innovative development that will ensure its competitiveness, stability and flexibility in changing external conditions.

Currently, there is a wide variety of methods for assessing intellectual potential, but insufficiently developed techniques directly applied to the analysis and evaluation of the intellectual potential of a higher education institution. Therefore, the problem of developing a single, universal methodology for assessing intellectual potential, which would allow the most accurate, objective assessment of the intellectual potential of the university, remains urgent. This is due to the fact that the very notion of intellectual potential is relatively new and there are contradictions regarding the definition of its content and structure.

The correct choice of the system of indicators, which allows to characterize the potential in a variety of ways in a complex manner, and the choice of the most reliable method for its evaluation will ensure the objectivity of evaluating the intellectual potential of the university. The purpose of this study is the approbation of the proposed system of indicators and methodology for assessing the intellectual potential of the university on the example of universities in the Republic of Bashkortostan.

The research materials are based on the results of monitoring the activities of educational institutions of higher education. Methods of research include the method of paired comparisons, a method of comparative analysis.

Results of the research: a system of indicators for evaluating the intellectual potential of higher education institutions and a methodology for its evaluation were proposed, an assessment of intellectual potential was made using the example of five universities of the Republic of Bashkortostan and their comparative analysis. Based on the results of the comparative analysis of the universities of the Republic of Bashkortostan, the relevant conclusions were drawn. The system of indicators proposed in the study and the methodology for evaluating the intellectual potential of the university make it possible to determine the capabilities of the university in the implementation of innovative activity and to make effective management decisions. 



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)