Purpose of the study. Monetary policy is one of the most effective tools of the state under the control of the central bank. It allows you to influence macroeconomic components, such as the amount of money supply, activity in the credit market and the exchange rate of the national currency. Such actions lead to an increase in the money supply and the speed of its turnover, ensuring the availability of loans. Economic growth is being stimulated, but there are also adverse consequences - inflation is accelerating. The central bank uses monetary policy more frequently to bring about the desired level of change in real economic activity. These changes significantly affect the stock market. Economic theory uses the relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index. An analysis of the impact of the money supply on the consumer price index is necessary to select the most reliable type of monetary policy in the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability or to stimulate economic growth. The money supply not only denotes and shows the level of money in various types and forms, but is also an important indicator on which price increases, inflation, credit policy, etc. depend. The dynamics of the money supply determines the dynamics of prices. The accumulation of excess money supply in the country’s economy leads to the depreciation of the national currency. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term relationship between the money supply and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Materials and methods. In the article to analyze the long-term links between monetary aggregates M1, M2 and the consumer price index of the Republic of Azerbaijan based on quarterly data for 2005-2018, a long-term equilibrium state model and a short-term error correction model were designed. With the help of cointegration analysis and a vector model, the long-term and short-term aspects of the links between the growth of the money supply and the increase in the price level are investigated. For the regression analysis of these models, the EViews 8 application package was used.

Results. Using the various methods showed that the dynamics of M1 and M2 monetary aggregates determine the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long-term and in the short-term periods.

Conclusion. The analysis allows us correctly approaching the problem of modelling the inflation level and to obtain a statistically acceptable and stable model with good predictive characteristics. The fact that there is a connection in the opposite direction has been confirmed. The use of various complementary methods showed that the dynamics of monetary aggregates M1 and M2 determines the growth of the consumer price index in Azerbaijan both in the long and short term.

This article is devoted to the results of a statistical study of the composition of federal budget expenditures (the object of the study) from the standpoint of assessing its information content (the subject of the study). In the opinion of its authors, the issues of information content of budget decisions remain out of due attention not only from the participants of the budget process, but also in the practice of public administration in general. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to form scientifically based tools for assessing the information content, determining its quantitative indicators, clarifying the nature, hidden features and balance in the distribution of federal budget expenditures.

Materials and methods. The analysis of the composition parameters of federal budget expenditures was carried out on the basis of statistical data of the Federal Treasury for 2014-2020. The theoretical foundations and research methods are developed based on the authors’ preferences regarding the results of conceptual and applied developments of domestic scientists in the field of synergetic information theory, structural analysis of systems, and modular theory of society. Quantitative methods of processing the initial data, tabular and graphical methods of visualizing the results of the study were used. Standard Microsoft Office application software packages were used to solve the research tasks.

Results. Indexes of information content of the multicomponent systems’ composition and algorithms for their calculations are formed. Quantitative criteria are determined and a model for optimizing the composition of federal budget expenditures is presented. The comparison of actual and model indexes of the information content is presented as a way to adjust priorities in the composition of federal budget expenditures; as a way to develop tactics and strategies for the transition from the actual parameters of the expenditures’ composition to the “best” distribution, which is described by a quantitative model of the optimal combination of the scales of its components. Retrospective optimization options based on the results of the execution of expenditures in 2020 and promising options for optimizing the distribution of federal budget expenditures in 2022-2024 have been established.

Conclusion. Assessment of the information content and optimization of the components’ scale of the budget expenditures’ composition are recognized as elements of management of the distribution of public resources in the budget process, ways to ensure control over the effectiveness of budget decisions and can be useful for participants in the budget process both at the stage of formation and at the stage of execution of budget expenditures.

Purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to propose a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests based on the identification of the position of the state not only as a tax recipient, but also as a regulator of economic activity. In accordance with the goal, the following tasks are set: 1) within the framework of a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of the socio-economic interests of the approach, to propose a mathematical interpretation of the target function of taxes paid by an economic entity - taxpayer and the target function of tax revenues to the state; 2) justify the functional limitations of these objective functions and propose a logic for justifying the parameters of the Laffer curve; 3) propose an approach to explaining the shape of the Laffer curve, due to the rotation of the parabola on the axis of penalties; 4) to confirm the proposed approach, on the basis of correlation analysis, evaluate the closeness of the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally assessed funds for an on-site tax audit.

Materials and methods. The article uses information from the scientific works of Russian and foreign scientists, Internet resources. The following methods were used in the work: the method of logical analysis (for the logical substantiation of the parameters of the Laffer curve); correlation analysis (to identify the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally assessed funds for an on-site tax audit); the assessment of the tightness of the connection was checked according to the Chaddock scale; graphical method (to reflect different approaches to constructing the Laffer curve).

Results. The paper proposes a conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests, which involves highlighting the position of the state not only as a tax recipient, but also as a regulator of economic activity. Within the framework of this approach, a mathematical interpretation of the target function of taxes paid by an economic entity - a taxpayer and the target function of tax revenues to the state are proposed. The functional limitations of these objective functions are substantiated and the logic of justifying the parameters of the Laffer curve is proposed. Various approaches to the construction of the Laffer curve are considered. The arguments of critics of the Laffer curve are analyzed. An approach is proposed to explain the shape of the Laffer curve due to the rotation of the parabola on the penalty axis. The logic of substantiation of the parameters of the Laffer curve is determined. Based on the correlation analysis, the tightness of the relationship between the level of the tax burden, the number of on-site audits and the amount of additionally charged funds for an on-site tax audit was estimated. A trend towards a decrease in the number of on-site inspections (as a form of tax control) is revealed, while maintaining the main fiscal task of increasing revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation.

Conclusion. The proposed conceptual approach to assessing the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the context of socio-economic interests makes it possible to separate the assessment of fiscal efficiency and macroeconomic efficiency of fiscal policy and be guided by the proposed parameters when determining tax rates, which will allow using the fiscal policy of the state as an element of harmonizing the socio-economic interests of society.

Purpose of the study. To establish the specifics of the situation in the field of saving people in the regions of the Central Federal District, to identify the compliance of the state socio-economic policy with the real state of saving people in the regions of the Russian Federation.

Materials and methods. In the process of preparing the article, the authors used the materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the Territorial State Statistics Service for the Orel region, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of saving people. In the course of the work, statistical research methods were used: tabular and graphical methods, analysis of dynamics’ series indexes, the grouping method.

Results. The dynamics of the population in 1990-2021 was studied in the context of the federal districts of the country, including the regions of the Central Federal District, depending on individual factors (natural, mechanical movement). The study of the population in the regions of the Central Federal District showed that for the period 1990-2021, a decrease in the population was found in all regions of the Central Federal District (except Belgorodskaya, Moscow regions and Moscow). The rural population is decreasing at the fastest pace: mortality rates significantly exceed fertility rates in rural areas, the share of the working-age population is decreasing, and the share of the population older than working age is increasing.

Conclusion. The problem of saving people is urgent and requires the development of an effective system for managing the quality of life of the population and regulating demographic processes in the regions of the Central Federal District: Vladimirskaya, Tverskaya, Orlovskaya, Smolenskaya, Tulskaya, Ivanovskaya; in which the decrease in population is associated with natural factors: the mortality rate significantly exceeds the birth rate. It is advisable to form regional programs to improve the organization of healthcare in the following areas: Vladimirskaya, Kalugskaya, Ivanovskaya, Orlovskaya, Tverskaya, Yaroslavskaya. To manage migration processes, reduce the labor shortage in accordance with the needs of the region’s economy, create jobs and conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses, improve the quality of life of the population, develop appropriate programs in the following areas: Vladimirskaya, Orovskayal, Smolenskaya, Tambovskaya, Tverskaya.

The purpose of the study. The purpose of the work is to assess the state of the tourism industry using statistical methods, analysis of scientific literature and identification of the main trends and promising directions of its development. The article is devoted to the possibilities of statistical analysis in the conditions of limited statistical information on Russia in relation to the tourism industry.

Materials and methods. The following scientific methods are used in the article: analysis of scientific literature, analysis of dynamics and structure, coefficient analysis, correlation and regression analysis, graphical analysis, forecasting of indexes of the tourism industry. The analysis of Russian and foreign literature allowed us to formulate conclusions about modern methods of analysis used to assess the problems of the tourism industry. The analysis of the indexes in dynamics made it possible to identify and describe the main trends in the development of tourist flows, the volume and cost of selling tourist packages. The calculated structure of collective accommodation facilities showed their percentage ratio during the study period and the change in their shares. The use of correlation analysis made it possible to establish the closeness and direction of statistical relationships between individual factors affecting the state of the industry and the volume of tourist trips. A multiple regression model based on indexes characterizing the dynamics of prices for tours sold, the state of the transport sector and the food sector methodology is created. Based on the Box–Jenkins methodology, predictive models were created and medium-term forecasts were calculated for variables characterizing the number of tourist firms and the number of sanatorium-resort organizations and recreation organizations. The initial data for the study were Rosstat data in annual and spatial dimensions for the period 2011–2020.

Results. The article highlights the main directions of research in the field of tourism industry, presented in the works of domestic and foreign authors. The foreign approach to its assessment is carried out through evidence-based methods. The research of domestic authors is more focused on the implementation of program-targeted methods and the identification of problems of assessment and prospects for the development of the industry in the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of inbound and outbound tourist trips showed a tendency to decrease their total number, which is due to the low level of tourist attractiveness, shocks and restrictive measures caused by the SARSCoV-2 pandemic, the tense foreign policy situation. It is established that the most active external tourist flows of the Russian Federation are observed with neighboring countries. Correlation analysis showed the presence of a statistical relationship between the number of trips made with the state of the transport infrastructure and the cost of the tour packages sold. The trend of growth in the implementation of tour packages in Russian destinations and a reduction in their number in foreign destinations, which is due to an increase in the disparity between the average cost of tour packages depending on the destination of the holiday, is established. The carried out regression analysis procedure showed the relationship between the number of tourist packages sold to citizens of the Russian Federation with the variables “average cost of sold tourist packages” and “fleet of aircraft”, which indicates the need to develop transport infrastructure and optimize the cost of recreation. Forecast calculations on the number of travel agencies and sanatorium-resort organizations have shown their decline in the medium term, which indicates the need to take appropriate measures to activate tourism entrepreneurship.

Conclusion. Based on the results of the statistical analysis, the analysis of scientific literature and the content of tourism development programs in the Russian Federation, the authors identified common problems and directions of development of the industry. The main problems of the industry are the following: weak tourist attractiveness, insufficient development of tourist and transport infrastructure, lack of accommodation facilities aimed at mass tourists, low quality of domestic accommodation services, and high cost of foreign tours. The priority directions of the development of the domestic tourism business are related to: the introduction of modern digital technologies, active advertising of domestic tourism, optimization of the costs of tourism industry enterprises, activation of state support in difficult economic conditions.

Purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to improve the methodological apparatus of cognitive modeling of socio-economic systems (SES) and predicting the indicators of their functioning and development, which ensures an increase in the accuracy and reliability of the results obtained. Existing models and methods do not fully provide the necessary accuracy and reliability of models that requires the development of the mathematical apparatus of cognitive modeling in terms of improving the quality of the developed cognitive models.

Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, methods of an integrated approach to solving the problem, decomposing it into interrelated stages, describing the content of each stage in their relationship and presenting a generalized version of the methodology, taking into account the characteristics of the object of study, were used. The developed approach provides creating a more accurate and reliable cognitive model. The effectiveness of the developed methodological apparatus is shown.

Results. A detailed analysis of the existing criteria and approaches to solving the problem of verification of cognitive models was carried out, which showed the absence of a unified methodology and an integrated approach in solving problems of cognitive modeling of SES based on cognitive maps. A set of techniques that implement the stages of cognitive modeling has been developed. The results of a comparative analysis of the developed approach with the existing ones are presented.

Conclusion. A comprehensive solution to the problem of creating a cognitive model for analyzing and predicting the activities of a university is proposed, which includes a set of stages: the stage of creating the problem field of the situation; identification of factors and relationships between them; the stage of making a cognitive map and its verification, as well as the stage of analyzing the system characteristics of the cognitive model, validating the cognitive model. The developed methodological apparatus includes a set of techniques aimed at obtaining an adequate model that provides more accurate and reliable results of modeling the object of study.

Purpose of the study: to develop, evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of an epidemiological model for the development of chronic viral hepatitis C, with the ability to predict the number of people who need to be tested for the presence of the virus.

Materials and methods. In our study, we used official data for the Republic of Bashkortostan on the spread of chronic viral hepatitis C (annual dynamics of cases) in the period from 2005 to 2020, which were provided at our request by the Republican Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital. Demographic indicators for births and deaths were taken from the annual statistical report of Bashkortostanstat. The study considered 2 mathematical models: 1) Model SIR considers three groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), infected and dropouts (those who have recovered or died). 2) The STIRD model is the SIR model, improved by the author, which takes into account five population groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), tested (those who have been in contact with the infected people and require a test to clarify the diagnosis), infected, dropouts (those who recovered) and deceased.

Results: from 2015 to 2017, the model provided representative data on the forecast of the infected people, the error was about 1.5-4%, but after this period, starting from 2018, the error rate became critical and the model lost its representativeness. To explain this phenomenon, there are 2 reasons: the first is the easy availability of drugs for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, the second is the need to use Markov models in the model, since the calculation does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the coefficients of the model. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the error was more than 166%, this is due to a decrease in contacts between people and, as a result, a sharp decrease in the incidence of chronic hepatitis C.

Conclusion. The complete epidemiological STIRD model proposed by the author (taking into account the demographic change in the structure of the population) has shown itself well in medium-term forecasting up to three years. A significant advantage of this model specification compared to other epidemiological models is the ability to predict the number of diagnostic laboratory tests needed to detect a virus in humans. This is important, since the diagnosis and treatment of chronic hepatitis C is covered from compulsory medical insurance and regional budgets. Epidemiological modeling opens up great opportunities for developing scenarios for combating viral hepatitis C, especially with its chronic form, because, according to WHO, each country has the opportunity to completely get rid of this socially significant infection by 2030.