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Statistics and Economics

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Vol 18, No 3 (2021)
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https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2021-3

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS

4-11 769
Abstract

Purpose of the study. Analysis of the literature shows that the ordinal theory of utility is widespread in the theory of consumer behavior. To analyze consumer preferences, a utility function is used, which characterizes the value of the utility of the consumed goods and services on a scale of order. Moreover, to find the marginal utility of a product, arithmetic operations are used, which are impossible on a scale of order. To allow arithmetic operations, a quantitative analysis of the utility function is required. Consequently, the problem of quantitative measurement of the utility function is relevant.

The measurement problem also arises in decision theory. For example, the hierarchy analysis method is a popular method for solving multicriteria problems, but contains an erroneous model of subjective measurement. For this reason, other methods appear in decision-making theory that should replace the method of analyzing hierarchies. The theory of the importance of criteria is being actively developed. However, the theory of the importance of criteria also does not solve the problem of quantitative measurement.

For a long time, the problem of measurement has also existed in psychophysics. The existence of two mismatched psychophysical laws contradicts the classical theory of measurements. Recently, a rating solution has been proposed. The equivalence of the basic laws of psychophysics has been proved. In this paper, it is proposed to use the rating method to measure preferences in utility theory and in decision theory.

Materials and methods. The domain of the rating is the set of ordered pairs of objects. Moreover, the composition (operation of addition) of objects is defined on the set of ordered pairs. A rating is a number that is assigned during a measurement to an ordered pair of objects.

The rating is assumed to preserve the operation of composition of ordered pairs.

An arithmetic operation is selected to carry out the measurement. The measurement result must match the result of the arithmetic operation. The result of an arithmetic operation is the difference or ratio of the values of the quantity. The rating values coincide with the result of the arithmetic operation (up to isomorphism).

The additivity of the rating is used to check the adequacy of the measurement results. For this, it is assumed that the rating is independent of the measurement method. The theoretical justification for independence is the isomorphism condition. The empirical confirmation of independence is the equivalence of the basic psychophysical laws.

Results. The paper presents an axiomatic approach to the measurement problem. Measurement can be carried out in both objective and subjective ways. The axiomatic and classical definition of the rating has been formulated. The axiomatic definition implies the classical definition for a special set of objects. The classic definition is constructive. To check the adequacy of the measurement results, it is enough to compare the ratings obtained by different measurement methods (method of alternatives).

Conclusion. The rating method is a quantitative measurement method. The rating method can be used to construct a model of consumer behavior and in decision-making theory.

12-26 861
Abstract

The purpose of the article is to assess the risks of a toll road operator arising in the event of traffic congestion at toll collection points. In the Russian Federation, in infrastructure projects, including toll road projects, the organizational and legal form of public-private partnership is often used. State authorities have the right to control the quality of the road management by the operator; the state can charge penalty points for low operational efficiency, leading to traffic congestion. The return on investment in infrastructure projects is of a long-term nature, therefore, the task of assessing the risks of possible losses by the toll road operator is quite relevant.

Materials and methods. The main research tool is simulation modeling in the AnyLogic software environment, the analysis of the data obtained as a result of simulation was carried out in the environment of the statistical package R. The choice of tools is determined by a large number of subjective (sometimes technical) factors that significantly affect the road capacity at toll collection points, but do not lend themselves to strict formalization. Such factors include refusals to read electronic tolls, drivers changing lanes in the toll collection points, lack of money at the time of travel through the automatic toll lane, and others. All such factors are modeled in the AnyLogic environment as random variables with a rich choice of distribution functions and their parameters.

Results. A simulation model of a toll collection point at an exit from a toll road has been created to analyze the throughput of a toll booth with various configurations of toll lanes, various levels of user behavior errors and the provision of drivers with electronic means of travel registration. Using the example of a toll collection point for the “Western High-Speed Diameter” motorway, the parameters of traffic congestion that occur when the number of operating toll lanes on the toll collection point decreases are estimated. In the event of congestion, for each configuration, estimates of the number of vehicles in the congestion, the length of the congestion, the waiting time in the queue at the entrance to the toll collection point at different times of the day, and the time of congestion are determined.

Conclusion. Based on the results obtained, an assessment of the risks of non-compliance by the road operator with the standard for ensuring throughput can be carried out. To assess the risks of a toll road as a whole, it is advisable to use an individual simulation model for each toll collection point, taking into account the peculiarities of its geographical location, the composition of traffic at the facility, the regularity of user correspondence, as well as the impact of the surrounding transport, logistics and social infrastructure. In pronounced industrial and logistics areas of the city, in the border zones between the city and the region, an additional assessment of traffic intensity may be required to analyze the throughput of toll collection points, taking into account the daily, weekly and seasonal unevenness of the traffic flow.

DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

27-45 631
Abstract

The continuation and deepening of regional studies of the nosological and age and gender structure of mortality and its temporal dynamics is due both to the need for scientific monitoring of the implementation of regional programs and projects of the Vologda Oblast dedicated to the protection and promotion of public health, and the need to update the trends in mortality of the region residents in the context of modern socio-demographic challenges (population aging, depopulation, a complex epidemiological situation against the background of the spread of coronavirus infection).

The purpose of the study was the analysis of the nosological and age and gender profile of mortality in the Vologda Oblast and the resulting demographic losses, including their transformation over the period from 2015 to 2019. The choice of the analyzed period is not accidental: if in 2015 the region was characterized by the most positive indicators of natural population movement (the total coefficient of natural loss since the beginning of the 2000s reached a minimum of -1.1 per mille), then by 2019 the situation changed dramatically — the indicator of natural loss increased and amounted to - 4.5 per mille.

Materials and methods. The study was based on both general scientific and special statistical and demographic methods of research — structural and dynamic analysis of mortality indicators of the Vologda oblast population; assessment of demographic losses due to premature mortality by calculating lost years of potential life; calculation of mortality rates. The information base was the data of the territorial body of the Federal state statistics service for the Vologda Oblast, in particular, the annual data on the distribution of the deceased by sex, age groups and causes of death for 2015-2019.

Results. The conducted study allowed us to establish that, in general, the structure of mortality in the region shows signs of its gradual modernization: the level of mortality from diseases of the circulatory system, external causes of death and their share in the total number of deaths are reduced, while increasing the proportion of neoplasms, symptoms, signs, deviations from the norm detected in clinical and laboratory tests, which is quite natural due to the shift in mortality to older age groups. At the same time, its features “slow down” the evolution of the mortality structure, such as a high proportion of young age groups (under 45 years old), especially categories 30-44 years old, in mortality from external causes, infectious and parasitic diseases, endocrine diseases, nutritional disorders, metabolic disorders and, as a result, the large scale of premature mortality of the region's population; male premature super-mortality, as well as the high contribution of the child population (0-14 years old) to premature mortality from diseases of the nervous system and sensory organs.

Conclusion. Against the background of the coronavirus pandemic, the fact of a high contribution of young age groups (up to 45 years) to mortality from infectious and parasitic diseases is of great concern due to the likelihood of a sharp increase in the scale of human losses as a result of the layering of new premature deaths due to the consequences of COVID-19. It is considered necessary to include additional indicators of mortality reflecting its gender, age and nosological profile in the regional comprehensive program “Public health — in the center of attention”.

46-55 544
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the tools for the interregional assessment of models of adaptation of the country's population. The study uses statistical methods that comply with international norms and standards, including the system of national accounts. It is assumed that the assessment of the models of adaptation of the population of the regions is determined on the basis of the characteristics of the living conditions and the economic potential operating in a particular territory. Models of adaptation of the population in the conditions of dynamic development include interaction of internal systems of the person and external systems of the environment for satisfaction of needs, creation of new goods, improvement of living conditions and safety of people. The following types of population adaptation models are used: active, optimal, inertial, and passive.

The materials and methods of the study are the use of official data of the Federal State Statistics Service using the following methods: index, trend, balance, grouping, comparison, and multi-factor analysis. The author conducted an interregional assessment of population adaptation models of the country's regions according to 24 quantitative and qualitative indicators, which allow to objectively measuring the general state of the economy of the territories and the level of adaptability of the population for the period 2005-2019.

Based on the results of the review of theoretical approaches, it is concluded that the models of population adaptation can be described as a complex object of research. Based on the measurement of the main socio-economic indicators, the ratings of the interregional assessment of population adaptation models, the living conditions of the population (work, life, leisure and security), the state of the economy and the standard of living of people are calculated. Over the past 15 years, there have been significant changes in many regions of the country in terms of the use of population adaptation models, which have contributed to an increase in the speed of adaptation of people to any situation. Thus, the central and north-western federal districts revealed an excessive concentration of financial, labor, administrative and material resources. Natural, industrial, technological, and economic resources are concentrated in the regions of the Volga, Ural, and Siberian federal districts. The regions of the southern and North Caucasus federal districts specialize in the development of recreational, agri-food, road, and housing and communal resources. The regions of the Far Eastern Federal District have the largest area of territory, investment activity, high per capita income of the population and wages of employees of organizations. However, in the territories, the living conditions of the population deteriorate, there is a significant migration outflow, and the adaptation of the population is slowed down.

Conclusion: the use of the statistical approach for the interregional assessment of population adaptation models allowed to improve the quality of the information base, to determine the real state and contribution of each region to the country's economy, to measure the level of regional adaptability, which is of crucial importance when drawing up strategic directions for regional socio-economic development, to develop recommendations for improving regional policy in the conditions of dynamic development of territories.

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

56-64 926
Abstract

This article is devoted to the development of high-tech companies in the modern economic market. The author presents the definition of a high-tech company, shows that with the development of the digital economy, high-tech companies are more and more efficient in their activities in the economic market and have a multilateral positive impact on the development of regions. The author analyzes the main functions of high-tech companies in the modern economic market. In addition, the article shows that high-tech companies, through their own scientific developments, the introduction of advanced solutions in the activities of industries and spheres of the regional economy, contribute to the development of the business environment, training of the personnel of economic objects, the quality of life of the population of the regions. The article notes that high-tech companies in their activities use a full range of modern innovations: technical, technological, marketing, organizational, process, etc. The article tells that in the modern period in the economic market of the Russian Federation there are many high-tech companies that specialize in the development and implementation of information and communication technologies and digital projects. For example, such as the development of data stores, web and mobile applications, enterprise resource planning systems, industrial process control systems, etc. As the main characteristics of high-tech companies, the article highlights such as the use of progressive achievements of science and technology in the main areas of the company's work, the presence of trade secrets, the production of goods and services, information security, profitability, instant rate of change, constant integration with scientific institutions, mobility and uniqueness of specialists.

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to prove the provisions that high-tech companies are an effective tool in the development of the regional economy.

Materials and methods. In the process of writing this article, a systematic and comparative analysis, methods of working with WEBsites, monographic studies, research materials of domestic and foreign authors in the field of regional and digital economy were used.

Results. In this article, based on the study of domestic and foreign experience, the main directions of the functioning of high-tech companies in the economic market, their advantages and disadvantages are identified; the main provisions for further improving their activities and a positive impact on the growth of economic indicators in the development of regions of the country are stated.

Conclusion. This paper shows that high-tech companies that are effectively developing in the modern period have many positive effects on the development of the regional economy. In particular, they contribute to the creation of an innovative ecosystem, the development of production and urban infrastructure based on advanced scientific discoveries, innovative practical developments and the attraction of qualified personnel.

ICT IN STATISTICS

65-72 667
Abstract

This article is devoted to the issues of effective application of advanced information and communication technologies in the insurance activities of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The author, using the example of the “Ishonch” insurance company, shows that in the modern period in the Republic of Uzbekistan the quality of the provision of insurance services is improving, as well as their quantitative indicators are growing.

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to scientifically substantiate the place and role of advanced information and communication technologies in the provision of insurance services in the economic market, as well as the development of the insurance sector in the context of the development of the digital economy.

Materials and methods. In the course of preparing the material for this article, the methods of system analysis, economic and mathematical methods and models, special methods of working with information systems and computer networks of various levels were used. All materials of the article are based on the use of factual material of the insurance company “Ishonch” of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

Results. The article presents the author's approaches to the development of a distributed management system for the web resources of an insurance company in the global computer network of the Internet, it is proved that in the modern period the effectiveness of the functioning of insurance companies in the economic market depends on the degree of implementation of advanced information and communication technologies in their activities.

In this paper, it is emphasized that the use of advanced information and communication technologies is of great importance in the development of insurance activities. In particular, the author emphasizes that the development of insurance services is achieved both by the development of existing software products, and by the development of new technological, software and information solutions based on the introduction of digital technologies.

This paper shows that an information system is of great importance for the effective functioning of an insurance company, which includes a complex of interrelated subsystems providing the effective functioning of an insurance company in the economic market.

Particular importance in this article is given to the use of the global Internet network. The author noted that the web representation of the insurance company on the Internet and the use of platform solutions and cloud technologies play a large role in the company's activities. In addition, the article tells about the fact that recently in the insurance business, electronic business is becoming widespread, which allows you to link together all participants in the insurance market.

Conclusion. The material of this article shows that in the modern period in the insurance activities of the Republic of Uzbekistan there is a continuous process of introducing advanced information and communication technologies, contributing to the development of both the insurance sector itself and all participants in the economic market through the use of information systems, technologies, software products and new electronic services being introduced.

The article notes that modern insurance companies, thanks to the development of advanced information and communication technologies, work with their clients directly, which creates benefits for both clients and insurance companies. In general, this article shows that the development of insurance activities in modern conditions is unthinkable without the use of advanced information and communication technologies and the adoption of competent management decisions.

THEORY OF STATISTICS



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)