Purpose of research. Analysis of the information capabilities of the methodology of the UN national accounts system as amended in 2008 to solve the problems of regional identification of production losses from the COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus infection pandemic caused a decline in production in almost all types of economic activity. The Russian government has identified a strategy to counter the extraordinary economic crisis triggered by the pandemic. The range of addressees of anti-crisis measures of the executive branch in the sectors of producers is determined, at the federal and regional levels, according to the main type of activity declared during registration, in accordance with the approved list of codes of the Russian National Classifier of Types of Economic Activity for the types of activities that are most affected by the pandemic and self-isolation regime. The approved list of such types of activities over the past 2 months has been repeatedly adjusted by the Government of the Russian Federation, taking into account the recommendations of experts and proposals of business-structures, in order to ensure the highest efficiency and targeted state support for manufacturers. Ensuring targeted state support during optimization of the federal resources distribution between regions - is an urgent task that requires accurate regional identification of production losses from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the solution of this problem is significantly difficult in relation to the activities of multi-regional producers - enterprises that carry out production simultaneously in several territories of the Russian Federation. This is due to the characteristics of the organization system of statistical accounting of resources and production results in the enterprise sector. The paper considers the possibility of assessing the gross value added at the regional level for the aggregate of local producing units, grouped by the type of economic activity, based on methodological principles harmonized with international standards and guidelines of the current version of the national and regional accounts system and provided with resources of official (state and administrative) statistics of the Russian Federation.

Materials and methods. The research information base was made up of official statistical sources: metadata and international statistics guidelines in the field of subnational accounting, methodological provisions and an album of ROSSTAT forms, as well as methodological materials of administrative statistics of the Federal Tax Service (FTS) and the Social Insurance Fund. The methodological basis of the study was the United Nations system of national accounts as amended in 2008, including the European system of regional accounts as amended in 2010.

Results. The paper analyzes the principles of the European system of regional accounts, which are useful to use in Russian statistics for adequate accounting of the activities’ results of multiregional enterprises at the place of actual production and methodological approaches to assessing the number of such enterprises and the results of their production at the subnational level are proposed. The results obtained will allow us to estimate the loss of multiregional enterprises of different types of activity from the decline in production as a result of the ban on interregional relations during the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to determine the recipients of state support for enterprises in the regions. In particular, the proposed indicator for reducing the regional GVA for the most affected by the quarantine measures activities can be used as a condition for the allocation of funds as part of overcoming the consequences of the pandemic. The application of the proposed methodology in calculating the gross value added at the place of actual production for the aggregate of geographically separate divisions of multiregional enterprises will increase the targeting and effectiveness of state support for enterprises and entrepreneurs affected by the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection, and will optimize the distribution of federal resources between regions, which is a prerequisite for successful overcoming “coronacrisis”.

The aim of the study is the development of theoretical and methodological principles of the analysis of industry financial indicators. The relevance of the topic is confirmed on the one hand by the demand for industry indicators for all persons interested in financial and comparative analysis of enterprises, on the other hand by the complexity and lack of methods for deriving industry indicators of the financial analysis of enterprises.

Materials and methods. The study used a system and comparative analysis, methods of economic and financial analysis of the financial statements of enterprises in the industry, and methods of statistical evaluation of the main parameters of the sample with a lognormal distribution. The main attention is paid to the use of multivariate statistical analysis, the use of the model of lognormal distributions recommended for distributions with pronounced right-hand asymmetry. As the statistical material, the accounting data of the enterprises of the industry for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas for 2016 were used. The sample size was 185 enterprises. In the course of the study, the authors solved the following tasks: proposed stages of analysis for determining industry financial indicators, tested the hypothesis of a lognormal distribution of marginal distributions of the main financial indicators of the sample, tested the hypothesis of a jointly normal distribution of a multi-factor random vector of financial indicators of the sample, obtained the most likely values of financial analysis indicators for the industry of crude oil and natural gas production.

Results. The theoretical significance of the work is the algorithm proposed by the authors for calculating industry-specific indicators of financial analysis, characterized by obtaining modal values based on the analysis of the multidimensional logarithmically normal distribution of the vector of financial indicators of a sample of enterprises. In the course of the study, the authors obtained distributions for the main indicators with a pronounced right-hand asymmetry and tested the hypothesis of the lognormal distribution of marginal distributions. The paper presents an algorithm for testing the hypothesis of joint normality of a ninedimensional random vector. Median and modal values of industry and financial indicators were obtained. The authors analyzed the differences between the median and modal results of the study. For analysis, a three-dimensional random vector is considered, including revenue, return on equity and turnover of accounts receivable. The difference between median and modal results is explained by the right-hand asymmetry of the distribution. The recommendations, given by the authors for determining industry indicators of financial analysis of enterprises in the industry for the extraction of crude oil and natural gas are practical in nature and are applicable to all industries.

Conclusion. In the work, it is shown that the orientation toward generally established recommended values of coverage indicators, financial leverage, immobilization, profitability and turnover seems incorrect due to the variety of specific features of enterprises in various industries. We recommend calculating the most likely industry coefficients by groups depending on the size of the enterprise (revenue or capitalization).

The purpose of the article is to theoretically prove the possibility of generating forecast information in the balance-sheet regarding profit indicators, net inflow of operating money and financial capital. According to the authors, the system of these indicators is revealed in dynamics, thus reflecting the impact of profit on the financial condition of the organization. A logical and accounting balance-sheet relationship is established between actual and forecast indicators that characterize the financial condition in the past and future. By analyzing the processes in the operating cycle, the economic and financial feasibility of operating profit as a net cash flow from operating activities is theoretically proved. Based on the process approach and the induction method, the indicator of operating profit is included in the valuation of the asset and liability side of the balance-sheet, thereby developing the valuation method and forming a new forecast model of balance-sheet generalizations. The content of the forecast model of balance is described in the form of a balance equation. The obtained theoretical conclusions are verified experimentally.

As a result, the asset of the balance-sheet reflects the process of transforming the value of operational resources into their selling price, and the forecast operating profit is generated in the liability side of the balance-sheet, which relates to assets and liabilities recognized in accounting at the current time. Cost parameter and value index are introduced, which characterize the indicators of income and expenses as the transformation of operational resources. Any change in the cost of resources used and the possible price (value) of their sale is reflected in the balance-sheet and affects the change in the estimate of forecast operating profit in real time. At the same time, due to the simultaneous recognition in the balance-sheet of actual and forecast estimates of assets and liabilities and the indicator of forecast operating profit, the indicator of financial capital receives a new interpretation. If we compare the value of assets and accounts payable, then financial capital characterizes the security of operating activities with own sources of financing in the past. If we compare the selling price of assets and account payable, then financial capital shows the forecast for repayment of account payable at the expense of own funds in the future. Consequently, the transition from actual to forecast estimates in the balance-sheet reveals the process of the circulation of operating capital and shows how much profit is provided by investments in working stocks made in the past. Due to the double recording method, any forecast estimates can be verified by the user, which increases the reliability of the forecast information in the balance-sheet.

In fact, the balance-sheet is interpreted as a new method of analysis and forecasting of financial and economic indicators characterizing the activities of the organization. At the same time, it is not necessary to perform additional analytical calculations, forecast operating profit and analysis of its impact on financial capital can be carried out in real time as often as accounting entries are made that affect the change in working capital.

Purpose of research. The article examines the human potential of the Russian Federation in the context of the established second wave of the demographic crisis. The article analyzes the state of the number, composition and structure of the population of the Russian Federation during the first (1992–2012) and second demographic crisis (2016 and up to the present), taking into account the factors of population reproduction (birth rate and mortality) and migration inflows to the country. Factors and causes of external migration with the CIS countries are identified, as they have been and remain the main donors for replenishing the population of the Russian Federation. On the basis of analytical indicators of dynamics and methods of statistical relationships, an assessment of external migration growth and its impact on the country's economy is carried out. Special attention is paid to measures taken at the state level to stabilize and improve migration problems.

Materials and methods. The information base of the study is statistical data and analytical information on external migration flows, based on statistical surveys conducted in the country. The methodological basis of the research is represented by statistical methods of information analysis: comparative analysis, structural and dynamic analysis, analysis of the interrelationships of migration and economic indicators.

Results. The article analyzes in detail the results of current events in the country during periods of demographic decline and population growth since 1992. Due to the demographic policy implemented in the country, as well as the peculiarities of the age and gender structure of the population, it is proved that the main component for population growth is still the migration inflow. Special attention is paid to external labor migration in recent years. The impact of migration growth on economic indicators (unemployment rate, real wages, index of physical volume of GDP) and the development of the economy as a whole are estimated. Also, on the scale of the State National Policy Strategy being implemented until 2025, state measures to stabilize and improve the situation in the field of migration policy are presented and analyzed.

Conclusion. Due to the fact that migration policy is a defining component of demographic policy, which is currently one of the priorities of the state's development, it is advisable to regularly study external migration as one of the most important sources of replenishment of human capital and hence the development of the country's economy. Therefore, the government of the Russian Federation should pay special attention to measures to attract foreign highly qualified labor force in active working age; providing foreign students who have successfully completed their studies and defended their diplomas in Russian universities with the opportunity to find a job in our country in order to obtain Russian citizenship and create a family in Russia. As well as carrying out regular monitoring studies on adaptation of foreign citizens, taking into account regional peculiarities of development of economy of our country, because today in the conditions of demographic decline of the Russian population it is one of the main sources of economic development on the geopolitical level, as labor potential – a basis for national economic growth.

Purpose. In Sub-Saharan Africa, UN demographers expect the population to nearly double over the next 30 years (2020–2050), increasing by more than 1 billion people. Demographic changes of such speed and scale will undoubtedly have global implications. The purpose of the work is to calculate a number of scenarios of the demographic future for some countries of the region, taking into account specific features and events of African recent demographic history (in contrast to the UN forecasts). We also aim to assess the difference between various scenarios for each country and the attainability of the “optimistic” scenario.

Materials and methods. We develop scenario forecasts for population dynamics in a number of African countries. In all scenarios, mortality dynamics corresponds to the “medium” UN forecast. For the birth rate dynamics, two scenarios were simulated: the optimistic one (birth rate goes from current rates to 2.1 children per woman in 20 years, which was observed in Iran; Rwanda and Ethiopia are more or less close to this scenario) and the inertial one (for countries where birth rate declined in 2005–2015, this decline was simulated to continue at the same rate; for countries where birth rate “froze”, two options were modeled; both projected birth rate decline at 0.1 child per woman annually, either starting immediately or after another 10 years).

The results show that all scenarios, even the “optimistic” one, forecast a huge population increase in all countries considered (Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia) over the next 30 years. Slow birth rate decline (or prolonged “stagnation” at high levels) parallel to successful mortality reduction (especially in infants and children) accumulated enormous demographic inertia in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (to calculate its scope, an additional “provisional” scenario was calculated in the work). The difference between the “inertial” and the “optimistic” reaches the size or even sometimes exceeds the current population of the country. This underlines the importance of the governments’ efforts to curb population growth. Ethiopia proves such efforts.

Conclusion. Only in Ethiopia the “inertial” and “optimistic” scenarios almost coincide thanks to demographic growth-reducing efforts undertaken there since the early 1990s; thus, in 2005–2015 the birth rate decreased by 1.3 children per woman. This proves that achieving an “optimistic” scenario is possible in African countries, although with considerable and concentrated efforts.

The article considers an econometric approach to the analysis of relation between the population morbidity rate depending on ecology and the environmental pollution index. Panel data are used in this approach.

The purpose is to find quantitative relations between the state of the environment and public health under the differentiated man-caused load threatening public health in the Republic of Mari El. Materials and methods. The research methods are based on the approaches to correlation and regression analysis of the panel data. In order to identify the environmental pollution index statistically related to the morbidity rate, Pearson and Spearman's correlation coefficients were calculated. Then the regression models for the panel data were developed: a fixed-effect model and a random-effect model. The sources of the panel data are the following: Regional Statistics Office in the Mari El Republic (Maristat), Office of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing in the Mari El Republic (Rospotrebnadzor) and Ministry of Healthcare of the Mari El Republic. The data include six air and water pollution indexes and seven priority indicators of the population morbidity rate in 15 municipal districts of the Mari El Republic in the period of 2009–2017.

Results. The analysis of the Pearson and Spearman's correlation coefficients helped to identify environmental pollution indexes closely related to the population morbidity rate. These indicators were used as input data of the panel regression model. Three statistically significant panel regression models were identified. They describe the impact of pollution of drinking water from the distributed network on bronchial asthma morbidity among 0–14-aged children diagnosed for the first time in their life; and the impact of emission into the atmosphere of pollutants from the point emission sources on gastritis and duodenitis morbidity among 15–17 aged teenagers diagnosed for the first time in their life.

Conclusion. The identified models have biological plausibility. The ethiopathogenetic analysis confirms the possibility of existence of the identified relations. The statistically significant relations between environmental pollution and public health do not prove existence of cause-and-effect links between them. It is statistical demonstration of the hypothesis of their possible existence. This demonstration is an essential work stage to make the hypothesis a hard fact. In the future, it is proposed to use additional, more objective and integral evaluation of environmental quality, for example, the fluctuating asymmetry of bilateral features of biological objects.

The article considers the issues of using new information and communication technologies (ICTs) when conducting the Russian Census related to the introduction of mobile devices and the Internet, which provide new opportunities for improving the quality and timeliness of the collecting and primary processing of statistical information about the population.

In 2010, the Russian Census was conducted in the Russian Federation, which had many differences from previous censuses. All the technological stages of Russian Census – 2010 were automated starting from the development of machine-readable forms of census questionnaires and up to the preparation of publications of its outcomes.

In the course of the trial population census held in 2018, ROSSTAT first combined the use of the Internet and mobile devices for collecting the information about the population. So, from October 1 to October 10, 2018 an online census was conducted for the whole country. Then, from October 11 to October 14, 2018 the information collected during the online census was processed, from October 15 to October 31, 2018, a survey was conducted by census takers in the regions of the trial population census – 2018 with the use of tablets and machine-readable documents. However, as the experience of the trial population census – 2018 demonstrated, one method of collecting information about the population cannot be equally efficient in all regions of Russia, due to the different attitude of the population to the methods of collecting information, as well as the conditions for the availability of information and communication technologies (ICTs) to the population in each region.

The experience gained indicates the need for each region to choose the method of collecting and primary processing of statistical information about the population for each region based on a combination of Internet, mobile and traditional technologies that is adaptive to the regional conditions of the population census (remoteness and inaccessibility of some regions, the unreadiness of individual segments of the population to use modern ICTs for collecting information, Internet accessibility in various regions, different attitude of the population to census methods). The solution of this problem is an important condition for increasing the coverage of the population, the accuracy and reliability of the results and reducing the cost of conducting a census in each subject of Russia.

The use of new information and communication technologies related to introduction of mobile devices and the Internet opens up new opportunities for improving the quality and timeliness of the collection and primary processing of statistical information about the population. However, with the development of census technologies, the number of alternative options for organizing it is growing. All this makes it necessary to justify the selection of a rational method of collecting and primary processing of statistical information about the population based on the regional characteristics of the development and accessibility of ICT, the consent of the population to interact with public authorities through the Public Services Portal, availability of ICTs in households. The validity of this choice is associated with the use of methods and decision-making models that are adequate to the peculiarities of the task.

Purpose. Development of models for the selection of the rational method of collecting and primary processing of information of the Russian Census for each region of Russia using mobile devices and Internet technologies that correspond to the existing technological environment and the specificities of organizing Russian Census processes.

Materials and methods. In the process of performing the preset tasks, methods of system and statistical analysis, expert assessment and systems, the fuzzy-set theory and cluster analysis were used. Calculations were carried out using MS Excel application software packages and IBM SPSS STATISTICS statistical software package.

Results. The scientific article describes the developed expert system and models for substantiating a rational method of collecting and processing primary information in each Russian region based on their clustering according to the features characterizing the level of ICT development and their accessibility to the population in each region, the population's consent to cooperate with governmental authorities through the Public Services Portal, accessibility of ICT use in households and identifying the compliance of possibilities provided by alternative methods of collecting and processing the information on the population to the characteristics of readiness of the population, census personnel and territorial state statistics agency for conducting a census using modern ICTs and the limitations on the cost of conducting Russian Census in each region.

Conclusion. The paper discusses the methodology that allows for the implementation of basic concept of the Russian Census, which is to ensure maximum coverage of the population while making informed management decisions on the choice of methods for collecting and primary processing of Russian Census information in each region of Russia, taking into account regional characteristics of the development and accessibility of ICTs, the consent of the population to interaction with public authorities through the Public Services Portal, access to ICTs in households.

Purpose of the research. The aim of the study is to develop recommendations on the selection of parameters for modifying the ant colony method when searching for a rational solution to the task of appointing employees to work, subject to setting the time to complete the work using fuzzy sets and taking into account the interaction time between employees assigned to one task. The algorithm is proposed for modifying the ant colony method. Various stopping algorithms of the modified ant colony method are considered.

Materials and research methods. The use of the ant colony method developed for finding the traveling salesman’s path for the assignment problem requires the creation of a “decision graph” and some modifications of the algorithm associated with entering weights (pheromone) on the graph. The paper proposes to create a graph of solutions by creating a set of vertices that determine the appointment of an employee for tasks for each employee and calculating the path in the graph that determines the solution to the assignment problem. To stop the algorithm of the ant colony method, two different algorithms are considered: the stop when performing a certain number of iterations and the stop when finding a solution that satisfies the constraints. To evaluate the effectiveness of the algorithm, the following criteria were considered: the estimate of the mathematical expectation of the number of iterations of the algorithm, the estimate of the mathematical expectation of the criterion value, the estimate of the mathematical expectation of the number of considered solutions, etc. For all estimates of mathematical expectation, a confidence interval is also calculated. According to the estimates, the paper gives recommendations on the selection of parameters of the ant colony method: the number of agents, evaporation rate, parameters of the elite and ranked method of ant colonies, etc. Both the speed and the ability to find rational solutions for different values of constraints are evaluated.

Results. The work considered the task of appointing 35 employees for 15 tasks. As a result, the following recommendations were identified on the choice of parameters to the modified method of ant colonies. The more agents, the better solution found, but the number of the considered solutions increases, which leads to an increase in search time. For the evaporation coefficient, it is recommended to choose a value in the range (0.8; 0.95). It is recommended to use a ranked algorithm with a parameter 4 times less than the number of agents in the group. The problem of “cycling” of the ant colony method, caused by the passage of agents along the same routes, is determined.

Conclusion. The developed recommendations make it possible to use the ant colony method to solve the problem of assigning employees to tasks. The proposed recommendations on the parameters provide high speed and accuracy of finding a rational solution to the problem. The problem of “cycling” of the ant colony method is described.