Purpose of the study. The main goal of this research is to identify key aspects of expert assessments and offer high-quality recommendations for their improvement.

Materials and methods. Foresight is built on the basis of expert assessment method, includes: active formation of the image of the future instead of its probabilistic prediction, focus on identifying key development priorities, participation in the study of key stakeholders, the relationship with the management decision-making process. The methods of analysis used in the work suggest methods of theoretical research in the form of analysis and modeling. In the course of the research, the following tasks were solved: firstly, the Expert model was formed based on the necessary and sufficient criteria for selecting respondents to the foresight study; secondly, the main characteristics of the Delphi method for consensus decisions in expert groups were identified. The research work considers various sources of information, which became the basis for the further development of the Expert model, based on an integrated approach based on the statistical, sociological and economic fields of science.

Results. On the basis of bibliometric analysis, important criteria for the selection of experts were highlighted: a practical component, a theoretical component, a creative component, an assessment of belonging to a field of study, an assessment of work in a study, an adjustment of results. The relevance of the selection of an expert greatly influences the result of the foresight, therefore, there is a need for a balanced selection of respondents to the study. Foresight studies have a distinctive feature from other areas in that the result is the achievement of consensus between experts in the subject area. Decision makers are drawn from three areas of activity business, government, science. In this regard, criteria for the selection of respondents were formed, which imply the necessary and sufficient conditions. The necessary criteria are understood as such parameters, without which the characteristics of the expert do not allow the respondent to be an expert for this study. A sufficient condition for the participation of the decision maker in the foresight analysis implies such selection criteria, which are complementary characteristics of the expert, which do not need to prove that the expert is a suitable expert for a specific study. As a result, four necessary criteria for the selection of experts for groups were identified, as well as individual sufficient criteria for each group. The process of carrying out the Delphi method is considered, the advantages and disadvantages are determined, on the basis of which the resulting indicator is proposed the foresight research reliability index.

Conclusion. The method of selection of experts allows a comprehensive approach to the problem in the field of formation of expert groups based on the introduction of digital technologies that improves the qualitative characteristics of foresight research. The confidence index, as a result indicator, determines the objectivity of the study based on expert assessments.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the current system of transport taxation and develop proposals for its improvement. The article is devoted to the identification of ways to improve the system of taxation of transport tax on road transport in the Russian Federation, including the optimization of the current method of calculating the tax.

Materials and methods. The article analyzes the literary sources of normative, reference and scientific literature on the organization of transport taxation. Based on the analysis of normative legal documentation the method of calculation of the transport tax on the automobile transport oper-ating in the Russian Federation is opened, shortcomings are revealed and the directions of its im-provement are designated. The statistical analysis of indicators of the taxation by the transport tax in the Russian Federation and Nizhny Novgorod Region is carried out. The authors also present statis-tical data on fuel prices in dynamics for three years, interrelation between the increase in the cost of fuel and the increase in fuel excises has been found. A generalization of the accumulated experience in the field of transport tax taxation in Russia and in foreign countries is given. The source data for this research were the materials of the report in the forms: 5-TN (2014-2017), NOM-1 (2014-2018), Internet information resources – бензин.рф and www.gks.ru.

Results. This article highlights the features of the current system of taxation of transport tax, the importance of transport taxation for the formation of regional budgets. The inexpediency of replacing the transport tax with fuel excise is justified. The modified method of calculation of the transport tax on automobile transport, including for hybrid cars is developed. The values of the coefficients of environmental friendliness, market value, weight are proposed. In the process of analysis of statistical indicators of taxation the general trend of growth of tax revenues from individuals, reducing revenues from organizations was revealed. The tendency of fuel cost and fuel excise rates increase is established. The percentage ratio of the formation of the tax base for transport tax between taxpayers – legal entities and individuals is established. 

Conclusion. The use of the proposed methodology in practice will contribute to the implementation of the following regulatory principles of taxation: fairness, economic feasibility; as well as create the prerequisites for improving the environmental situation in the country by redirect-ing part of the funds from taxation to environmental funds. In this aspect, it is assumed that in view of the application of environmental coefficients, taxpayers will seek to upgrade their vehicles with more environmentally friendly, technical re-equipment of vehicles with modern and high environ-mental standards units. If the purpose of transport taxation is given, part of the collected funds can be directed to the development of transport infrastructure. The development of the tax system is an important area of the tax policy of the Russian Federation, as the optimization of the tax burden will contribute to the development of business, which will certainly have a positive impact on the financial and economic performance of enterprises in all spheres of activity.

Suicide is a social phenomenon, which depends on the living conditions of the population. The existing and changing socioeconomic conditions influence people’s daily routine. This fact enables us to consider daily life as a suicide factor. The main method to study everyday life is the time budget. It is quite accurate indicator of people’s lifestyle and changes in their behavior at work (office hours), welfare and recreation (non-office hours).

The previous analyses have shown that the time spent taking care of the family members, volunteering and being involved in recreational and cultural activities are considered the factors significantly reducing suicide rate. However, the stability of correlation between the suicide frequency rate and the time spent on welfare and recreation remains unclear. The same concerns the significance of every single correlation coefficient.

The work aims to determine the stable nucleus of hierarchy for off-work daily activities, which influence the suicide frequency rate, as well as the close and far peripheries of the hierarchy nucleus. The methodology of the research is based on the correlation analysis of the panel data and the national approaches to identifying the nucleus of certain processes as a set of sustainable properties emerging in different interactions.

As a result of small sampling in correlation analysis of suicide frequency rate and the use of time we applied non-parametric methods. The sources of data include the World Health Organization and EUROSTAT. The latter provides consistent, comparable and detailed data on average time consumed by one surveyed, by one participant and the degree of employee’s involvement in the framework of Harmonized European Time Use Surveys (HETUS). The first wave of HETUS 2000 was implemented by 15 European countries in the period from 1998 to 2006. The second wave of HETUS 2000 was implemented by 18 European countries in the period from 2008 to 2015.

The meaningful analysis of coefficient matrices of Spearman and Kendall and scattering diagram made it possible to identify the activity hierarchy connected with suicide frequency rate for all the employed population (males and females). The research revealed that the core of the hierarchy for the employed people in general and males in particular is watching TV and video, which is positively interconnected with suicide frequency rate. This activity accounts for most of the time. The nucleus is relatively stable due to high level of engagement (over 80%). The core of the hierarchy for the employed women is housekeeping excluding cleaning activities in the house, which is positively connected with suicide frequency rate, and common (cooperative) activities negatively connected with suicide frequency rate. The nucleus is relatively stable due to high level of engagement (over 55%).

The obtained interconnections and their directions are validated by other research outcomes. Meanwhile, they are more reliable, stable and detailed. The nucleus of activity hierarchy for the employed women has dual controversial nature and represents the factors reducing and increasing the risk of suicide. Close and far peripheries of the nucleus for the employed people and employed males contain factors reducing suicide risk, which opens up the potential by forcing watching TV and video at least to the close periphery. At the same time the potential hazard is found at the edge of close and far peripheries of the hierarchy nucleus represented by suicide risk factors only. For the employed women the threat is more obvious, since the close and the far peripheries of the nucleus are represented by suicide risk factors.

calculated by the authors to use a simplified methodology that takes into account the indicators of average life expectancy at birth, the weighted average monthly wages and the average monthly pension, as well as the average duration of study and literacy of the population, for each of 54 municipalities and 8 urban districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period of 2007 and 2013. A comprehensive study of spatial autocorrelation in the distribution of HDI in the republic was conducted in accordance with the five-step methodology proposed by the authors. At the first stage of the study, a weighted spatial matrix of inverse distances between the administrative centers of the municipalities was calculated. This matrix defined the spatial lag structure. At the second stage, which consisted in calculating the global and local indexes of spatial auto-correlation (Moran’s and Giris), the hypothesis about the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the HDI distribution was confirmed. Under the third stage, Moran’s scatterplots were used to visualize the spatial mutual influence of the HDI for specific municipalities for 2007 and 2013. The fourth stage consisted in spatial model estimation. Two specifications were considered: spatial auto-regression (SAR) and spatial error (SEM), both permitting to identify the mutual influence in the spatial distribution of the HDI in municipalities and urban districts. Coefficients of the models were estimated by using maximum likelihood approach. The final part of the study was devoted to the interpretation of the results of spatialregression modeling. R-Studio was used as a modelling tool.

Results. It was shown that the distribution of the HDI in municipalities of the Republic of Bashkortostan is characterized by sustainable positive spatial auto-correlation. Moreover, we note an increase in dynamics of positive spatial correlation in the distribution of the HDI, which could be explained by the increasing role of urbanization and concentration of human resources in relatively large cities. There is even “a competitive struggle” going on in a number of municipalities for resources that contribute to raising the HDI. A number of municipalities form, however, a cluster of territories with a low level of human development. These areas are mainly located in the Northeast of the Republic. The estimation of spatial regression models allowed us overall to quantify the spatial auto-correlation dependencies in the distribution of human capital.

Conclusion. The obtained results of spatial dependencies in the distribution of human capital can be used both in the development of strategies for the long-term socio-economic development of municipalities and serve as a basis for strategic planning of the development of the region.

The purpose of the research is to reveal the phenomenon of “digital crisis” in the context of the development of the digital economy, to identify its impact and consequences for the innovative activity of the enterprise. Commitment to the development of the digital economy suggests that the gathering and processing of the increasing volume of digital data will increase the effectiveness of various types of economic activities. However, throughout the scientific and technological progress, the amount of accumulated information has increased at a pace ahead of the intellectual and computational capabilities of the society to process them. Statistical studies show the accumulated contradiction between the growing level of digitalization of Russian society and the stagnation of innovative activity of Russian enterprises.

Materials and methods of research include the study of the ITindustry as a provider of resources for the development of innovations in the digital society. The analytical reports of consulting ITcompanies (IDC, McKinsey), the results of studies of the accumulated experience of its implementation in the activities of enterprises, the official statistics made up the factual basis of the research. The methodological basis of the study includes approaches to assessing the effectiveness of access to digital data, assessing the effectiveness of their use for solving economic problems.

The results of research show the presence of the digital crisis, which is expressed in the inability of the IT-infrastructure to provide enterprises with effective access to digital data in the course of their innovation. At the same time, the volume of digital data is growing exponentially with the spread of the Internet of things and the increasing frequency of citizens’ interactions with digital services and platforms. The digital crisis makes it impossible for enterprises to extract knowledge from the data stream to develop innovation.

Conclusion. While Russian enterprises are experiencing the impact of the digital crisis, which makes it difficult to develop innovations using a combination of IT and digital data, the Russian and global market is filled with foreign digital goods and services. The achievements of digitalization of Russian society become the basis for the development and dissemination of foreign innovations. Overcoming the digital crisis depends on factors either the external and internal environment of enterprises. The competence of the enterprise itself is the improvement of its organizational structure, business model and human resources. The external environment should create favorable conditions for enterprises’ access to innovation resources.

In the state strategy of the economic security of the Russian Federation the increased differentiation of regions and municipalities on the level and pace of socio-economic develop-ment is indicated as the main challenges, as well as the insufficient funding of industrial production, a weak innovation activity, lagging behind in the development and implementation of new and emerging technologies, increasing differentiation of the population by the income level, lack of labour resources, reduced quality and accessibility of education, health care and, as a result, the decline in the quality of the human capital.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a system of integral indicators of resource components of socio-economic potential of the regions of the Russian Federation based on a legitimate, credible and accessible statistical data for the evaluation of their development unevenness. 

Materials and methods. Resource potential of the region is being considered as a collection of six groups of socio-economic indicators: fixed funds, financial and investment resource, labour resource, science and innovation resources, information resource and social resource. Each group includes indicators that are directly related to the possibilities of production of goods and services. In accordance with the methodological approaches of the resource capabilities evaluation of the region on the basis of integral indicators the principles of completeness, adequacy, accessibility, universality and formalization of the indicators are used. Evaluation of a group of indicators and all indicators of groups as a whole is made according to the values of integral indicators of reduction or exaggeration in comparison with the reference values of the resource components. Various indicators in the group have a different level of im-pact on the gross regional product that is taken into account in assessing their weight indicators. Time series values of the resource components in each group correlate with the time series values of the gross regional product, the coefficients values of pair correlation are used to recalculate them into weighting coefficients. Formulas for evaluating the individual indicators in the group are developed, integral indicators of the group of resource components and integral indicators of the resource potential of the region as a whole.

Results. Given the significant differentiation of regions of Russia according to various objective factors, it is considered appropriate to compare regions within Federal Districts. For the Central Federal District, the Moscow region is taken as the benchmark for comparison, and relative levels of reduction in the resource components of other regions are calculated relative to the level of indicators of its resource potential. Analysis of the data shows that the highest level of resource reduction components of the Ivanovo region is observed in the resource group of science and innovation – 77.1 %, resources of the fixed funds, financial-investment and labour resources are equal the value of this indicator – from 42.3% to 45.4 %. The integrated indicator of relative resource reduction components in the Ivanovo area totaled 41.9 %.

Conclusion. Using statistical data for the Ivanovo and Yaroslavl regions as examples, calculations of integral indicators are carried out, which demonstrate the possibility of assessing the regional development unevenness by their resource component of socio-economic development.

The purpose of the article is to assess the current state and develop measures of state policy to overcome consistently the interregional differences in the level and quality of life of the population based on promoting the independence of regional and local authorities of the Russian Federation. The applied purpose of the work is to determine the optimal values of the distribution of revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation at the levels of the budget system as a financial condition of the solvency of the subnational authorities. Due to the provisions of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation from 07.05.2018 No. 204 “On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2024” the range of issues is of critical importance, as it requires the inclusion of regional and local authorities in the implementation of national projects.

Materials and methods. The paper analyzes the changes in the level of interregional differences in the main indicators of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2000, 2005 and 2016–2018. Based on the analysis of interregional differentiation by the own and total revenues of their consolidated budgets, the changes in the level of financial independence of subnational authorities were assessed. As factors, hindering the development of regions with “selfreliance”, the state debt policy, the policy of inter-budget transfers, as well as the structure of income of the three-level budget system of the country are indicated and analyzed. The methodological basis of the study is the work on regional statistics, structural analysis, quantitative modeling. Tabular and graphic methods of visualization of research results, statistical methods of processing of initial data were used. For the solution of research tasks, the standard packages of the applied programs of Microsoft Windows were used.

Results. The article shows the excessive centralization at the Federal level of the main decisions that determine the fiscal and debt policy of regional and local authorities, the “explosive” growth in the volume of subnational debt for these years, as well as the “blurring” of inter-budget transfers from the Federal budget to the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The debt policy of the state and inter-budgetary regulation are estimated as not fully corresponding to the tasks of spatial development of the country. A system solution for optimizing the structure of three-level budget system of the Russian Federation is proposed and a method for determining the optimal values of the distribution of revenues of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation by levels of the budget system is given.

Conclusion. The paper deals with the differentiation of Russian regions in terms of the level and quality of life of the population, analyzes the factors that led to this differentiation. The high heterogeneity of Russia’s spatial development is one of the features of its economy. State fiscal and debt policy, inter-budget transfer policy are the key factors in consistently solving the problems of overcoming interregional differences in the level and quality of life of the population, improving the competitiveness of the country, ensuring sustainable economic growth. Achieving the optimal structure of the budget system (as well as the movement to it) will create conditions not only for the inclusion of subnational authorities in the implementation of national projects, but also for the implementation of the diversity of the potential of its regions – a unique advantage of the Russian Federation.

The purpose of the study is to improve the quality indicators of adaptive multichannel detection-resolution-measurement parameters of stochastic signals under parametric a prior uncertainty.

Materials and methods. The methodology for the synthesis of signal detectors of various structures, taking into account various factors, is used to achieve the goal. This makes it possible to exclude from the expression for estimating the signal power the terms due to “colored” internal noises and an uncorrelated background. The tools of correlation analysis, adaptive Bayes approach, criterion of generalized likelihood ratio, methods of calculating its logarithm are also used. 

Results. In this paper, the problems of synthesis of adaptive multichannel detection-resolution algorithms for stochastic signals of various structures under the influence of intense noise interference are considered. An integral element of the detection task is a joint assessment of the intensity of the useful signal and the correlation matrix of interference. This problem is effectively solved for highintensity signals, and the nonstationarity of the internal noise of the receiving uncorrelated background of the interfering signals is not taken into account. A multi-channel receiving system consisting of a number of independent spatially separated elements that form a linear antenna array is considered. The width of the spectrum of the received signals should be considered sufficiently narrow, so that the delay of the signals at the antenna aperture can be neglected. This provision can significantly improve the performance of detection and resolution of stochastic signals in the background of noise interference. Based on the analysis of a finite discrete sample of complex amplitudes of received oscillations, a detection problem was solved, which is formulated as a problem of checking statistical hypotheses regarding distribution parameters. The detection algorithm is reduced to a comparison with the likelihood ratio threshold, and the threshold level value is determined by the selected optimality criterion and for the Neumann-Pearson criterion remains dependent on the power of interfering oscillations.

Conclusion. The presented detector possesses higher characteristics of detection and resolution of stochastic signals in comparison with the known ones. It can be shown that an important property of the obtained statistics is the stabilization of the probability of false detection. This is achieved by normalizing the noise power at the output of the adaptation device. In addition, the resulting algorithm is invariant to the form used for its calculation of the correlation matrix of interference. If we take into account that an uncorrelated background will be added to the internal noise power, with a large number of noise jammers, a significant improvement in the detection performance has been achieved.