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Statistics and Economics

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Vol 20, No 5 (2023)
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DISCUSSION CLUB

4-10 284
Abstract

The relevance of the study lies in the fact that only with a competent comprehensive assessment of quantitative parameters, their qualitative interpretation is possible. Statistics acts as such a tool.

The purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to study opinions and approaches in the use of statistics as a tool for assessing phenomena and processes.

Materials and methods. In the course of the study, the main directions of statistics as a tool for working with data were studied. The most common and practically justified is the use of statistics as a tool of cognition, management, propaganda and control. The result of the interpretation of statistical data primarily depends on the degree of objectivity and the level of literacy of those who work with the data: both at the initial stage of the formation of the initial data set, and at the stage of explaining the resulting values.

Results. It is revealed that the same parameters (proportions) can be interpreted in completely different ways. Such differences are formed both from the subjectivity of the perception of these data, and from the degree of study of the material. As a result, there is a field for discrepancies and discussion.

Conclusion. In order to obtain a qualitative analysis and interpretation of phenomena and processes, serious knowledge is needed, backed up by a substantial study of the subject area – only in this case statistical data can become a “mirror” reflecting the realities.

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

11-21 303
Abstract

In an age of rapidly changing technological revolutions, where cryptocurrencies and blockchain play key roles, studying the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets at the government level is becoming an urgent need, which is not just a step into the future, but also an opportunity for countries to act forward, based on data analysis and forecasting global economic trends. Every aspect of cryptocurrency - from financial stability to technological innovation - has the potential to transform the global landscape. Studying the interaction of cryptocurrencies with national interests will not only help to determine the positions of countries in this context, but also formulate effective strategies for managing this rapidly developing economic segment. It is important to realize that those states that integrate cryptocurrency market analysis into their strategies can best adapt to the challenges of the modern world and promote their economic prosperity.

The purpose of the research is to study how the introduction of digital money into the economy affects the interest of various countries in participating in trading in the cryptocurrency market. To identify the relationship between the integration of such assets into the economy and the desire of host countries to participate in cryptocurrency markets. Consequently, there is a need to analyze the mechanisms of interaction of large economic entities - states - with cryptocurrencies, as well as predict the likely responses in this context of research. Using panel data analysis, to conduct a study of the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market in the digital finance market using the example of 50 countries around the world. To identify the relationship between the attitudes of countries and the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market in order to suggest possible directions for the future development of the studied evolutionary economic sphere.

Materials and methods. As a basis for the study, a balanced and informative set of indexes (17 indexes) was identified, which represents the key variables necessary for a more in-depth analysis of the dynamics of cryptocurrency markets in the context of various countries over a period of ten years (2013-2022). The “Cryptocurrency trading volume” index was chosen as the effective index. The set of indexes was selected based on their ability to reflect cryptocurrency trading volumes, investor activity, and each country’s level of involvement in cryptocurrency transactions. The impact of various factors on the volume of transactions with electronic money and digital financial assets was assessed using panel data analysis methods in the Gretl statistical analysis program.

Results. As a result of the analysis using the panel data tool, three models were created: a pooled regression model, a fixed-effects model, and a random-effects model. The choice of the best model is made through testing special hypotheses - the Brisch-Pagan test and the Hausman test. The fixed effects model was preferable to the random effects model in this study. The reason is the fixed effects model’s ability to take into account the individual characteristics of each country in the sample, leading to more accurate results. Based on the study of individual fixed effects, three groups of countries were identified: those that have a positive impact on the volume of cryptocurrency trading (for example, the United States and Japan), countries with a neutral impact (for example, Germany), and countries where individual effects have a negative impact (for example, China and Russia).

Conclusion. Overall results indicate that countries with advanced digital infrastructure and ease of use of electronic payments, as well as inflationary and cultural influences, may exhibit higher activity in cryptocurrency markets. Based on the fixed effects model and taking into account assumptions about the dynamics in different countries, general conclusions were formulated regarding the index analyzed in this study - the volume of cryptocurrency trading.

22-30 377
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The article presents the results of a study and analysis of the performance indexes of the Russian bank cards market on various grounds, because bank cards contribute to increasing the availability of financial services. Having a bank card allows you to carry out financial transactions anytime and anywhere and makes these transactions more convenient and transparent. The use of bank cards as a non-cash form of payment is not only convenient and practical, but also contributes to improving the economic situation in the country, expanding the availability of financial services and improving financial literacy.

Materials and methods. As research tools, such methods were used as: analysis of the structure and dynamics of the main indexes, correlation and regression analysis, analysis of time series and forecasting, graphical and tabular methods for presenting research results.

Results. The analysis carried out in relation to the issue of bank cards in Russia made it possible to establish the impact on the number of payment cards of two factors: the number of credit institutions and the average per capita income of the population (per month). The results obtained showed that an increase in the number of credit institutions leads to a reduction in the number of issued payment cards. In turn, with an increase in the average per capita monetary income of the population (per month), the number of payment cards increases. This suggests that a high level of income and good conditions for obtaining credit funds are an incentive to use payment cards. Bank cards are an integral part of the financial services market. The development of the bank card market has an impact on stimulating the country’s economic growth and improving the quality of life of the population. In modern conditions, banks are actively introducing electronic technologies and improving the use of bank cards by customers. The creation of convenient services and the introduction of new technologies make it possible to expand the possibilities of using bank cards for their holders.

31-41 242
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The state policy aimed at stimulating national economic growth should necessarily be based on justified scientific conclusions and the results of empirical studies. In particular, a relatively new method for accelerating the country’s economic development is state investment in the digitalization of the economy. In this respect, the present study aims to roughly estimate the economic effect of additional public investments in the development of domestic software and databases and the increase in the share of IT specialists in the total employment structure.

Materials and methods. The paper used regression analysis methods for panel data based on Rosstat statistics. In particular, the authors applied the econometric fixed effects model.

Results. The study demonstrated the higher efficiency of investment in the development of software and databases as compared to the similar efficiency of capital investment in other types of fixed assets. The possible economic effect of additional budget financing for domestic software developers was estimated. The results of calculations clearly demonstrate that additional capital investments in Russian software and databases in the amount from 0.16 to 0.64% of the Russian Federation’s consolidated budget annually (in 2020 prices and in relation to its size for the same period) can accelerate GDP growth in Russia by 0.16-2.44 percentage points per year. At the same time, these calculations hardly make it possible to speak about a strong impact of additional government spending on the increase in the number of people employed in the IT sector. Consequently, it cannot be stated with certainty that it is advisable to further increase the number of state-funded places at Russian universities in IT areas. However, this conclusion is based on panel data, the time interval of which ends in 2020. Taking into account the recent years’ trends can question the relevance of the obtained conclusion.

Conclusion. Thus, additional public investment in the digitalization of the national economy and automation of business processes at Russian enterprises is an important tool for accelerating Russia’s economic development. Currently, many domestic enterprises and organizations implement large-scale projects aimed at deepening automation (creating “smart factories”, transferring state-financed institutions’ document flow into an electronic form, introducing artificial intelligence, and many others). Besides, the reduction in the presence of some foreign software manufacturers in Russia makes it relevant to minimize losses associated with the termination of access to foreign software and databases. One of the options for solving this problem is the financial stimulation of developers of their domestic counterparts.

BUSINESS DEMOGRAPHY

42-53 335
Abstract

One of the main results of reforming the budget process of the Russian Federation in the middle of the 2000s was the widespread implementation of the approach to the work of the executive power, in which budget funds are allocated in accordance with the expected results. Performance indexes are necessarily developed for government programs, national projects, and other strategic planning documents. Finally, monitoring by indexes is increasingly being used as a tool for evaluating the performance of executive authorities and officials. Is this approach expedient in any case? Is it always possible to use monitoring by indexes as a basis of the performance evaluating system for civil servants?

This study considers the feasibility of including the results of assessing the quality of financial management of budget managers in the system of indexes for assessing the activities of executive bodies of state power of the Russian Federation constituent entity.

The study is focused on distinctive features of monitoring the financial management quality of budget funds’ managers, which make it difficult to use for a sound judgment about the efficiency of the participants of the budget process. In the course of the study, an analysis was carried out by the method of comparison and correlation of Pearson using data from the following sources: the official website of the Committee of Finance of St. Petersburg, the state information system for information and analytical support of the activities of the executive bodies of state power in St. Petersburg and the automated system of the budget process of St. Petersburg.

As a conclusion, arguments are provided not to use the results of monitoring the financial management quality, conducted by the financial authorities of the Russian Federation regions, due to its inherent specificity and its special role in the system of minimizing budgetary risks. The observations and conclusions made can be useful for further studies of key performance indexes’ systems for government bodies.

THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONS AND REGIONAL STATISTICS

54-64 317
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The implementation of the spatial development strategy of the Russian Federation has led to an increase in scientific and practical interest in the research of interregional differences and the assessment of uneven regional development at all levels of the national economic system. The purpose of this study is to verify the conformity (inconformity) of the empirical distribution of per capita Gross Regional Product (GRP) values of the Russian Federation regions with the normal distribution law to substantiate the specifics of the interregional development of the national economy based on the identification of statistical characteristics of the empirical distribution of GRP per capita.

Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, the article developed a methodology for measuring the uneven development of Russian regions by assessing the deviation of the empirical distribution of a sample of per capita GRP data from the normal distribution and determining the degree of asymmetry. The methodological basis was the analytical toolkit of the hypothesis of the normal distribution of the sample set of per capita GRP values for the Russian Federation regions. The article tested the methodology on a statistical sample of data on per capita GRP of the regions of the Russian Federation for 2010-2020; the level of uneven regional development of the economy of the Russian Federation was assessed and the statistical specificity of the revealed uneven development of the regions of the Russian Federation was identified. Identification of statistical outliers in the sample was carried out using the interquartile range method.

Results. During the analysis of the sample, statistical outliers were identified. It has been proven that the distribution of per capita GRP of the regions of the Russian Federation is mostly right skewed handed or positively skewed. The observed right-handed orientation of the empirical distribution demonstrated the asymmetry of the distribution of the Russian Federation regions by per capita GRP. The increase in the irregularity of interregional development in the more advanced subjects of the Russian Federation with the per capita GRP index exceeding the average value for the analyzed sample was justified by statistical calculations and the construction of histograms of the empirical distribution of the per capita GRP of the Russian Federation regions.

Conclusion. During the analyzed period, the stability of the uneven regional development of the Russian economy is observed. The stability of the positive asymmetry of the empirical distribution means that the basis for the divergence of regional development is the stability of the “club of the majority” of the Russian Federation regions, which form the left tail, and the “club of the minority”, which forms the long right tail of the empirical distribution. The approximation of the Pareto wealth distribution is a good approximation of the profile of the uneven distribution of per capita GRP of the regions of the Russian Federation.

65-74 307
Abstract

The purpose of the study. The purpose of the article is to economically substantiate the effectiveness of a long-term care system functioning in the form of social services at home, compared with stationary social services for people with limited mobility and non-mobile citizens to determine the most optimal and profitable form of providing social services for the state.

Materials and methods. The study used analytical and statistical data for the period 2019-2022 and 8 months of 2023 on the amount of funding and main items of expenditure within the framework of the implementation of the long-term care system in pilot social service organizations subordinate to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Stavropol Territory. Scientific methods: analysis of scientific literature on the research problem, tabular method, economic and mathematical analysis; methods of processing and displaying information using the Microsoft Excel software package.

Results. The authors carried out a theoretical analysis of the scientific literature of domestic and foreign researchers on the problem of the study. The article has developed and tested the author’s methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of the system of long-term care for elderly and disabled citizens, and also presents the results of a study of this assessment on the example of the Stavropol Territory.

Conclusion. The conclusions obtained based on the results of the study indicate the development of a long-term care system, the implementation of which is a priority socially significant direction at the federal and regional levels. The calculations carried out confirmed that the cost of servicing the socially vulnerable category of elderly citizens at home is lower than in the conditions of their stay in inpatient institutions. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the results obtained in the field of management of the development of the regional public sector in the sphere of social services and systematization of the data obtained. The options proposed by the authors for calculating the amount of funding and expenses within the framework of the system of long-term care for the disabled and older people can significantly affect economic growth, changes in the conditions and remuneration of personnel involved in the provision of services, the formation of gross domestic product.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)