Purpose of the study. In this paper, we consider the problem of negativity of weight coefficients when combining forecasts. Combining forecasts as a method has long ago proved itself in practice as a good way to improve forecast accuracy. However, in the literature little attention is paid to the issue of negative weights during aggregation, although the cases of obtaining such weights in practice are quite common. The reasons why this may happen are not considered or analyzed. Often, when obtaining weights less than zero, such weights are reset to zero, thus excluding the information contained in the particular forecasting method from the combination, which may reduce the accuracy of the combined forecast. In this regard, it is important to understand why when combining forecasts, negative weight can be obtained and determine options for how to avoid such situations in combining without losing accuracy.

Materials and methods. It is proposed to consider various approaches to eliminate excluded weights when combining forecasts, including truncation of weight coefficients or imposing restrictions on them, including the option of sequential combining of forecasts.

Results. The result is a list of reasons why negative weights can be obtained when combining forecasts, what risks they have and how to avoid them.

Conclusion. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the negative weights themselves when combining forecasts can be triggers for identifying problems when combining. However, it is dangerous to retain them, as they can lead to uncertain prediction results and degrade the accuracy of the resulting combined forecast. The proposed methods of work allow you to bypass the negativity of the weights without a strong deterioration in forecasting.

In the context of changing the demographic structure of the population (population aging) in order to determine the demand for goods and services and predict key socio-economic indexes, consumption age indexes are of practical interest for research. A feature of collecting information on the level of consumption is the conduct of surveys for the household as a whole, and not for a specific member of the household. At the same time, it should be noted that throughout the life cycle of a person, the level and structure of consumption differ. Methods for assessing the level of consumption in households of different generations are of greatest interest on the part of researchers. Current trends in developing and developed countries are characterized by a move away from multi-generational living. Thus, estimates of the level of consumption by children in households with parents are of practical interest.

The purpose of the study. At present, there are no unequivocal recommendations on how to estimate the calculation of children’s consumption in households. At the same time, the available methods have been subjected to various criticisms from economists. It should be noted that most of the research on this topic was carried out at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account possible cross-country features of consumption financing: the availability and development of medicine and education. If social services are available and provided at the expense of the state in a country, then the level of consumption by children will be lower. If the household finances the social sphere, the level of consumption by children in households will be higher. Thus, it is of practical interest to assess the level of consumption by children in Russian households.

Materials and methods. Based on data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2020 conducted by Rosstat, households consisting of two adults and two adults with one child are selected. With the help of classical methods of statistical analysis, the construction of age profiles of consumption for each group of households is carried out. Based on the share of expenditures on food in the household and the scale effect of their consumption, the paper constructs age estimates for the redistribution of the level of consumption depending on the age of children. In addition, the sample size allows us to test the hypothesis about the age of birth of the child and the level of consumption.

Results. The study made it possible to assess the differences in the level of consumption by children depending on the age at which a child was born. The average age of a child’s birth determines his/her further level of consumption throughout adulthood. Consumption is lowest among children who are born when parents are less than 26 years old. The obtained redistribution coefficients for ages under 15 are higher than in the estimates proposed by R. Lee, E. Mason, and Deaton, that confirms the possible consumption patterns of Russian households.

Conclusion. This article draws two key conclusions. The age at which a child is born determines his/her level of future consumption: the birth of a child under the age of 24 indicates a relatively low level of consumption throughout their adulthood. The estimates obtained for the level of consumption by children depending on their age indicate higher consumption up to 14 years of age than in foreign methods that can be explained by the socio-economic characteristics of Russian households.

All-Russian and regional labor markets operate in an unstable socio-economic situation, which can contribute to the emergence of gender disproportion. The study of gender asymmetry is considered the most popular direction during periods of “economic upheaval”, since this kind of instability increases the inequality of men and women in various spheres of life. The state of turbulence in which the labor market of Russia as a whole and each of its regions is located contributes to the adaptation of each of its segments to new forms of work. This study examines the results of an analysis of the structure and trends in the dynamics of indexes of employment and unemployment of the male and female population in the Orenburg region for 2016-2021. The choice of the time period is justified by the uneven development of both the world and the Russian economy. Modern economic realities, in which the labor market exists, develops both in the country as a whole, and in its regions, experiencing a number of shocks, determine the scientific novelty of the issues under consideration.

Purpose of the study. The main idea of the paper done is the possibility of using the methods of economic and statistical analysis to study dynamic differences in gender structures according to various characteristics, development directions that determine gender asymmetry in the labor market of the Orenburg region, and predict its main indexes for the medium term.

Materials and methods. The information base of the study was the statistical information of Orenburgstat, which characterizes gender asymmetry in the labor market of the Orenburg region. To achieve this goal, a set of methods of economic and statistical analysis was applied, including the calculation of indexes of the structure and structural differences, dynamics, identifying trends, forecasting, as well as presenting the results of the study using tables and figures.

Results. According to the results of the study, an average portrait of a busy and carefree person by gender was compiled. The characteristics of the male and female population in the labor market of the Orenburg region in 2021 compared to 2016 are highlighted. The study of structural differences was carried out according to the criterion of V. Ryabtsev, during which it was noted that there were no significant changes in the structures of employed men and women. A significant level of differences characterizes the age structure of unemployed men and women in 2021 compared to 2016, as well as the structure of unemployed men by level of education. The study made it possible to assert that in the dynamics of indexes characterizing gender inequality in the labor market of the Orenburg region, unstable changes are observed. The study tested the hypothesis of the presence/absence of trends in the time series of indexes characterizing gender asymmetry in the labor market of the region. For this purpose, one of the modifications of the series criterion was used. The assumption that there is no trend in the dynamics series under consideration has not been confirmed, therefore, the trend exists. Taking into account this circumstance, trend models were created, among which, according to the best statistical characteristics, second-order polynomial models were selected. With the help of the selected polynomials of the second degree, it was determined that in the dynamics of employment and unemployment indexes of the male and female population, downward trends of change prevail. Further, their prospective indexes were calculated.

Conclusion. The study made it possible to analyze the main vectors that are emerging in the field of employment and unemployment in the regional labor market by gender, and to predict their main indexes for the medium term. In the dynamics of the number of both male and female labor force in the Orenburg region, unstable trends will be observed in the future. The number of women employed in the region’s economy will grow; the number of unemployed women will decrease. In the forecast period, the number of employed men in the economy of the Orenburg region will change under the influence of a downtrend. The number of unemployed men in the period from 2023 to 2025 will tend to decrease.

Throughout the existence of mankind, the issues of human nutrition have been of daily relevance. With the development of statehood, their formulations have changed and since the beginning of the 21^st century, tasks have been set to provide the population with food of their own production, to develop the reproductive process in agriculture, to achieve food self-sufficiency and independence.

The purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to determine the type of reproduction process in the current situation on the market of crop production in order to assess the level of food self-sufficiency of the population of the Irkutsk region with these products and to develop recommendations for their development.

Materials and methods. Statistical methods were used in the paper: descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, dynamic series analysis, monographic and other research methods. The study uses normative, reference and statistical information. The empirical base of the study was made up of data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Irkutsk region, accounting reports of agricultural organizations, publications in open sources. The object of the study is the supply of crop production in the Irkutsk region on the market.

Results. The author’s approach in the study of the reproductive process and the agro-food market of crop production in the Irkutsk region, allowed to comprehensively analyze and determine: the type of reproduction of crop production, namely grain as expanded, potatoes and vegetables as narrowed; the main grain producers are peasant farms, potatoes and vegetables are households of the population; the level of self-sufficiency of the region with crop production, namely the region is self-sufficient with grain and potatoes; the level of food dependence of the region on imports, namely, the region is dependent on the import of vegetables; to identify the factors that influenced the formation of these indexes (natural and climatic, investment, reduction of the rural population, the prevailing eating behavior of the population of the region, etc.).

Conclusion. Taking into account the results obtained, economic instability, high dynamics of changes in the external environment, the directions of formation and development of reproduction and agrifood market of crop production in the Irkutsk region are proposed, namely, for the development of grain production, it is necessary to organize and develop production of highly efficient machinery and technologies for processing; the development of potato growing requires significant investments in agricultural organizations and peasant farms for the purchase of equipment for planting, hilling, harvesting, etc., the construction of potato storage facilities, etc.; increasing the level of self-sufficiency with vegetables in the Irkutsk region is possible through the application of the experience of neighboring regions, the joint work of the state and agricultural producers, the allocation of state support and private investment.

The purpose of the study is to highlight the key aspects necessary for the formation of a methodology for designing systems for managing trading operations over cryptocurrencies. The methodology of designing digital asset management systems defines a set of rules for using methods, models and algorithms required to build systems that solve the complex problem of managing trading operations over digital economy assets. For this purpose, the dynamics and trends of pricing of digital investment and financial assets are investigated to identify the peculiarities and specific patterns of cryptocurrency, taking into account the mathematical model of issuance in the conditions of a dynamic crypto-asset market, functioning continuously and forming cyclicality and wave structures.

Materials and methods. The object of the study is the dynamics of value indicators of the market of digital financial assets and digital currencies. The subject of the study is methods, models and algorithms for automated monitoring and management of digital financial assets and cryptocurrencies. The methodological basis of the research is formed by blockchain technologies, modeling and mathematical statistics methods, artificial intelligence methods. The statistical information base of the research is formed on the basis of the history of Tradingview’s value quotations from international trading exchanges of digital currencies, as well as by Coinmarketcap and Coingecko cryptoasset market integrators. Problems of modeling processes in economic systems are considered, the problem of optimal control is defined. A critical analysis of the state in the tasks of economic modeling is carried out, taking into account the uncertainty caused by social and psychological reasons.

Results. The proposed methodology offers a comprehensive solution to the problem of managing digital financial assets and other financial instruments based on blockchain technology. Digital currencies act as the management object of the proposed methodology, the initial information is a vector of parameters that determine the sensitivity of the system to the perturbing influences of the external environment and the requirements for the expected management results. In accordance with the scientific novelty of the research and methodology, a set of interrelated research stages is formed, consisting of an ordered cascade of methods, models and algorithms that perform preliminary analysis, processing and forecasting of financial time series of value indicators.

Conclusion. New blockchain technologies and the emergence of Chat GPT (generative pre-trained transformer) pose new challenges to society, which hopes to utilize such solutions, including for economic tasks. With the help of prediction-free methods and artificial neural networks it is possible to design software systems, thanks to which it is possible to increase the efficiency of trading operations at optimal risks in automatic and automated mode of trade execution. The proposed methodology of management with auxiliary intellectual analysis of time series and application of combined method of decision-making allows managing the portfolio of a new asset class of digital currencies based on blockchain technologies. Taking into account the technical similarity of digital currencies with digital financial assets, it is possible to use the methodology also for the creation of digital financial asset management systems.

The purpose of the study. The purpose of the paper is to assess the effectiveness of the use of regional budget expenditures on the example of the budgets of the Nizhny Novgorod and Mur-mansk regions.

Materials and methods. General scientific methods are involved: analysis, synthesis, gener-alization, classification; and specifically scientific methods: dynamics analysis, correlation and re-gression analysis, neural network modeling. The information base of the study includes indexes of the execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (information from the Federal Treas-ury of the Russian Federation) and regional budgets published in the relevant laws of the regions; statistical data published by Rosstat. The novelty of the research approach lies in the combination of traditional and economic-mathematical methods with the use of the Cobb-Douglas production func-tion. This fact provided an opportunity to assess the impact of budget expenditures on individual factors of production that determine the volume of public product produced. The paper presents a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of budget planning based on normative and program-target methods.

Results. It was found that the use of budget funds in the Murmansk region is more effective than in the Nizhny Novgorod region. In this region, starting from 2019, the priority of the task of developing a program-targeted method of budget planning has been reduced, but the region has achieved high efficiency in the use of budget funds due to rational management of budget debt. The budget of the Murmansk Region is characterized by a significant reduction in the debt burden, which reduces the share of public debt servicing costs, and the ratio of the amount of public debt to the expenditures of the regional budget by the end of 2021 approached zero. The study showed that budget expenditures have a significant positive impact on the growth of the capital factor. At the same time, the growth of budget expenditures has a more negative impact on the development of the labor factor. It was found that when using the program-target method, a number of program ex-penditures have a positive impact on the growth of the labor force in the regions, but the degree of such influence is insignificant.

Conclusion. In the course of the study, the authors concluded that the efficiency of using budget funds in the Murmansk region is higher than in the Nizhny Novgorod region. This circum-stance indicates a greater influence on the efficiency of the use of budget funds of the quality factor of public debt management in comparison with the influence of the factor of the application of the program-target method of budget planning. The results of the conducted research may be useful to government agencies responsible for planning and budgeting.

The purpose of the study is to substantiate methodological approaches for conducting a statistical study of the structure of budget investments and their approbation at the level of the regions of the Russian Federation on the basis of an assessment of data available in official statistical and administrative records on indexes of the composition of budget investments, analyzing scientific papers devoted to the study of the structure of investments, identifying and systematizing signs of gradation of budget investments for development and analysis their complex structure. The methodological proposals formed were the basis for the application of methods of multidimensional statistical analysis of the distribution of the regions of the Russian Federation by indexes of the structure of budget investments to determine territorial differences in the implementation of state investment programs of socio-economic development.

Materials and methods. The study used theoretical methods: analysis, synthesis, comparison of sources of information about budget investments, as well as mathematical and statistical research methods: structural and dynamic analysis, descriptive statistics, multidimensional grouping, cluster analysis.

Results. Based on the analysis of regulatory and legal documentation, scientific literature on the research topic, author’s publications, a classification of indexes of the structure of budget investments was formed. The structural and dynamic analysis of the index “Investments in fixed assets by sources of financing” (in the total amount of funds, in comparison with budget funds, by levels of budget expenditures of investments in fixed assets: federal budget, funds from the budget of the regions of the Russian Federation, local budget) was carried out for 2005-2009 and 2013-2021. The variability of the share of expenditures from the federal and regional budgets is revealed, which may be related to the implementation of state regulation measures in the redistribution of investment resources at the federal and regional levels. Using the methods of descriptive statistics, multidimensional grouping, clustering, a comprehensive analysis of the statistical distribution of indexes of budget investments by regions for the period 2015-2021 is presented, resulting in four clusters, an assessment of qualitative differences in the structure of budget investments by selected clusters is given.

Conclusion. In this paper, a methodological toolkit is proposed for a full-system representation of the composition of budget investments, provided with the capabilities of official statistical and administrative accounting and allowing organizing the totality of indexes of the structure of budget investments by territorial division, by sources of financing, by spending directions. The practical significance of the study consists in a proven assessment of the statistical distribution of indexes of the structure of budget investments by the share of budget investments in the total volume of investments in fixed assets (own and attracted funds), as well as by budget levels (federal, regional and local levels), identified spatial and dynamic changes in the selected cluster groups of the Russian Federation regions. Executive authorities and local self-government bodies in the formation and implementation of budgets in the areas of spending budget investments in order to increase their socio-economic effectiveness can apply the results obtained.