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Vol 19, No 1 (2022)
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https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2022-1

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

4-17 545
Abstract

The purpose of the study. Currently, the issues of determining, presenting and analyzing indicators of economic assets, in particular, financial ones, are relevant, since financial assets, along with nonfinancial ones, constitute the most important characteristic of national wealth as a level of development of the country and are the basis for constructing national accounts, indicators of monetary statistics and other sections of macroeconomic statistics. In modern conditions, the role of these constructions in making effective management decisions at the macro level, individual sectors, economic entities, on the development of the national economy as a whole is increasing. The aim of the work is to systematize theoretical and practical developments on the definition and presentation of data on financial assets in modern monetary statistics of Russia, to identify areas for improving methods for assessing financial assets, a system of indicators characterizing their presence, structure and dynamics.
Materials and methods. In the paper, the authors considered the essence, functions, classifications of financial assets and liabilities, applied structural and dynamic data analysis, as well as methods of theoretical research in the form of generalization, comparison and special analytical procedures based on official statistics from Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance and international statistical organizations.
Results. The work formulates the main directions of the study of financial assets, based on modern international statistical standards, taking into account domestic practice. Topical issues of the theory and practice of statistical collection and presentation of data on financial assets in monetary statistics, the application of definitions and classifications of international standards to Russian official statistics are considered. The features of the reflection of data on financial assets at the macro level, in the system of indicators of monetary statistics, have been formulated. The authors carried out a quantitative assessment of the structure and dynamics of indicators of monetary statistics in Russia, which characterize the state and movement of financial assets and liabilities.
Conclusion. A statistical study of transactions with financial assets and in connection with the formation of monetary aggregates makes it possible to identify not only the main trends in the development of these processes, but also makes it possible to characterize the contribution of a particular subsector to the total value of financial intermediation, to analyze the relationship between the financial corporations’ sector and other sectors, and also a comprehensive change in the volume and composition of stocks and flows of financial assets as a result of exchanges between residents and non-residents.
The authors comprehensively reviewed the methodological framework for constructing money aggregates and reviews of the financial corporations’ sector, incl. in the context of financial instruments. Statistical information on financial assets in monetary statistics is presented in terms of the formation of the money supply, other aggregates, the base, as well as the interaction between the institutional subsectors of the financial sector. A comprehensive description of the presence and movement of financial assets in the composition of monetary statistics can be obtained from the monetary surveys, containing data on the flows and stocks of financial assets and liabilities of financial corporations (residents) in relation to all other sectors (residents), as well as non-residents.
All considered data are comparable [17,18] since basically, one classification of financial instruments is applied, a different degree of detail can be applied in practice for different constructions, but the base is the same. Questions of the theory and practice of presenting indicators of financial assets in the considered sections of macrostatistics and their analysis are a relevant and promising direction for improving national statistical accounting. Work in this direction continues, and the process of actively introducing international standards into domestic statistics has been going on for quite a long time. In addition, telecommuting, collecting information via the Internet, the emergence of a large number of new financial instruments and transactions, including modified ones, in the business turnover of institutional units complicate their identification and classification.
The authors of the presented study have previously considered in their articles the problems of macroeconomic calculations, which allowed them in their work to consider in more detail the topical issues related to the processes of reflection of financial assets in monetary statistics.

18-27 484
Abstract

The indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (hereinafter referred to as the SDGs) were developed by the UN members and are aimed at the sustainable development of countries in the field of social policy, ecology and ensuring the well-being of the population. Sustainable Development Goals in the field of social policy can be considered necessary for survival. Country indicators are calculated by statistical agencies in accordance with methodologies developed by the SDGs curator agencies. The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) in accordance with the Federal Statistical Plan calculates most indicators for Russia. The standard of living of the population can be estimated indirectly as the share of the population’s expenditures on food, which are necessary for the physiological survival of a person. The literature notes that the existing criteria for the level of poverty can distort the real state. Therefore, the average per capita consumption level may depend on the size of the household. The paper considers the average per capita expenditure level on food in a household, depending on the characteristics of the household (number of members in the family, age groups). The paper also considers the differentiation of the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the share of the population’s expenditures on food.
The purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between the size of the household and its food expenditures, as well as the characteristics of the population’s expenditures, depending on the composition of the household, on food at home, outside the home and alcohol expenditures.
Materials and methods. The source of the data for statistical analysis is the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) conducted by Rosstat for 2010-2020 (11 years). Methods of statistical analysis are applied in the work; the author’s grouping of households is given depending on their characteristics. This survey is conducted quarterly for 48 thousand households. The performed calculations are presented for the year as an average value for 4 quarters. All necessary calculations were performed using the IBM SPSS application software package.
Results. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions about the impact of household size on food consumption. The consumption schedule has a U-shape, where the lowest average per capita consumption is observed in households of three and four people. At the same time, in especially large households (6 or more people), a high share of food expenditures may indicate a high level of poverty. The indicator of the share and structure of household expenditures on food also depends on the characteristics of the household: the largest share of total food expenditures in final consumption expenditures in 2020 is observed in households from single pensioners (46.4%), and the smallest - in households from 2 adults and one child (31.8%). The largest share of spending on eating out is in households of adults and children. At the same time, the presence of a pensioner in the household reduces the share of household expenses for eating out. This dependence can be explained by the lack of time for cooking in the adult (working-age) population.
Conclusion. The paper presents the author’s system of grouping households according to their characteristics (number of members in the family, age affiliation, etc.). The results obtained make it possible to assess the differentiation in the structure of household expenditures on food, depending on the characteristics of the family.

ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS STATISTICS

28-45 448
Abstract

The aim of the study. Federal target program “Research and development in priority areas of development of the scientific and technological complex of Russia for 2014-2021” defines transport and space systems as a priority area of strategic importance for the country’s economy. The aim of the work is to study the state of research and development in the field of study and development of transport and space systems based on performance analysis, as well as to compare the effectiveness of scientific activities of educational organizations of higher education and scientific organizations in this area.
Materials and methods. The information base of the study was statistical data and analytical information reflecting the state of research and development in the field of study and development of transport and space systems. The methodological base of the study is statistical methods of information analysis: analysis of variance, testing of statistical hypotheses, non-parametric criteria for comparing samples, analysis of time series, structural analysis.
Results and discussion. The article reflects the results of the Institute for the Study of Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences monitoring the scientific potential of organizations conducting research and development in the priority area of scientific and technological development “Connectedness of the territory of the Russian Federation through the creation of intelligent transport and telecommunication systems, as well as the occupation and retention of leadership positions in the creation of international transport and logistics systems, the development and use of outer space and air space, the World Ocean, the Arctic and Antarctic”. This publication, in particular, analyzes the effectiveness of research and development in the priority area “Transport and space systems”.
As a result of the analysis, conclusions were drawn about the main directions and trends of research and development in the field of studying and developing transport and space systems in Russia for the period 2015-2019. With the help of methods of dispersion analysis, nonparametric criteria, etc., a comparison was made of the effectiveness of scientific activity of educational organizations of higher education and scientific organizations.
The analysis showed that international publishing analytical systems occupy a greater weight in the volume of publications compared to the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI).
Researchers of educational organizations of higher education have 5 times more publications than employees of scientific organizations, which can be explained by overestimated requirements for positions of faculty and the formation of “garbage” articles. In terms of citation, 2017 was the most successful year for Russian researchers in the field of transport and space systems. At the same time, the citation of researchers from educational organizations was 3-3.5 times higher in international publications and twice as high in RSCI publications. Scientific organizations in the field of scientific, design, technological works show much greater effectiveness and efficiency compared to educational institutions of higher education. For the period 2015-2019 a trend towards a decrease in the results of intellectual activity was revealed for all organizations under consideration.
The analysis also showed the low performance of small innovative enterprises in this priority area for the period 2015-2019. In Russia, they have not received proper development. Dispersion analysis, testing of statistical hypotheses using nonparametric methods made it possible to compare the results of the activities of scientific organizations and organizations of higher education.
Conclusions. Thus, one of the ways to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of science in Russia can be attributed to the revival of the system of research institutes, the activities of which would be aimed at meeting the specific scientific needs of the state.

SOCIAL STATISTICS

46-52 598
Abstract

The aim of the study is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the self-isolation regime announced in Russia on the incomes of the population. The relevance of the study is connected with the problems of reflecting the pandemic, searching for patterns and its interrelations with incomes, health, living conditions of the population. The emergence of coronavirus disease (March 2020), quickly spread to all regions of the country, in 2021 the fourth record wave of morbidity and mortality of the population was recorded.
The research methods are the theory and methodology of income of the population used by the Federal State Statistics Service, corresponding to international norms and standards, including the system of national accounts. To determine the directions of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incomes of the population of the region, the method of analytical groupings (stochastically deterministic relationships), as well as the method of comparing parallel series, the index method and interregional data evaluation analysis were used.
The results of the study: the use of a statistical approach to assess and determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the real incomes of the population allowed us to determine the features of the spread of the disease in the regions of the Ural Federal District. The conclusion is made: the spread of COVID-19 in 2020-2021 did not have a significant impact on the real monetary incomes of the population in the regions of the Ural Federal District, despite the increase in the morbidity of people. The population quickly adapted to the pandemic, many enterprises were operating normally, and the state took prompt measures to reduce tensions and support the population and the health system in the country. The oppositely directed factors of the impact of the pandemic, leading to negative and positive consequences of real incomes of the population, have been identified. The level and degree of influence of the morbidity of the population on the income of the population are determined.
Conclusion: the use of a statistical approach makes it possible to improve the quality of information, to determine the positive and negative factors of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on incomes and the level of adaptation of the region’s population to it. The adaptation of the population to the coronavirus will continue for several more years and longer, and the waves of the disease will decrease as medicines are created. The study makes it possible to assess not only the main directions of influence on the real monetary incomes of the population, but also the quality of decisions made by management structures.

53-61 571
Abstract

The purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to use the methods of correlation-regression analysis as a tool to determine the fair share of a professional hockey player’s salary in the total salary budget of a hockey club. In modern conditions of functioning of professional hockey clubs, in which the total costs of the players’ salaries are strictly regulated by the “salary cap”, the availability of a tool that allows an objective assessment of the player’s contribution to the overall team result can increase the effectiveness of management decisions. In this paper, a regression model is proposed that allows us to determine the impact of individual characteristics of players, using the example of team defensemen, on the share of their wages in the salary cap.
Materials and methods. To select a multiple regression model, the statistical indicators of the defensemen of the National Hockey League in the 2018-2019 season were analyzed. At the substantive stage to design a model, a list of those statistical indicators was determined that, in our opinion, allow us to conclude above that a particular player is useful for the team, and also meet the requirements for factors to be included in the multiple linear regression model (quantitative assessment, close relationship with the result, lack of multicollinearity). In order to obtain the highest quality regression model, a posteriori approach was used in the selection of factors that should be included in the final version of the regression model. As a result of the step-by-step selection of factors, the factors were excluded from the model, t-statistics’ values of which made it possible to draw a conclusion on their statistical insignificance.
Results. As a result, a statistically significant model was obtained that describes the dependence of the share of wages in the salary cap of the 2018-2019 season. Comparing the salary shares predicted using the obtained model and their actual values, it was possible to determine the most overrated and underestimated defensemen of the National Hockey League in the 2018-2019 season.
Conclusion. The proposed regression model is an example of how econometric methods combined with hockey statistics allow us to quantify the pricing patterns of a professional hockey player’s contract. In our opinion, the obtained model of multiple linear regression is an affordable tool that allows us to give an adequate assessment of the value of a professional hockey player’s contract and help in solving one of the most urgent tasks in sports management – the formation of a competitive team in the presence of a salary cap.

STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS

62-68 381
Abstract

The purpose of research is to design a cognitive model for determining the degree of influence of targeted funding in educational programs on the innovative activity of an enterprise in different business conditions. As a tool for cognitive modeling, it is proposed to use the tools for constructing a cognitive map that allows analyzing different options of financing scenarios, which are alternatives to impulse modeling in the form of financing in a certain set of factors by introducing perturbations to the vertices of the cognitive map. The main reason for the study is that when creating new products or services for an organization, it is important to constantly increase their market share based on changes in the strategy of innovative activity of the enterprise, which is largely determined by the level of qualification of the workforce. The novelty of the research lies in the use of tools for constructing and using a cognitive map to solve the problem of substantiating the most preferred variant of a set of initial factors to achieve the required maximum values of the target indicators.
The research methods are heuristic in nature, aimed at finding such a set of factors that will lead to a given change in the target factor. In order to obtain the final result of changing the target factor, impulse modeling is used, which is carried out by introducing influences into the selected set of vertices of the cognitive map, and in order to find the best set, scenario modeling is used aimed at forming various alternatives. The proposed materials and methods of cognitive modeling are based on the cognitive map, presented in the work of R.Karaev and others [4].
Results. This article shows how organizations develop their innovative activities in production processes. This development process is associated with the interaction of enterprises and educational institutions, which is expressed in the joint training of specialists in the required field. To display the interrelation of factors influencing innovation activity in production processes, a model is proposed, which is reflected in the cognitive map of enterprise strategy management expanded by the author. As a result of cognitive modeling according to certain scenarios, recommendations are formed for decision makers on the choice of an innovative development strategy of an enterprise aimed at increasing the company’s market share.
Conclusion. The conducted modeling and analysis of the results confirm that innovative activity allows to increase the market share and reduce the price of the company’s products due to investments in educational institutions. In addition to the required changes in the target factors, the proposed funding has a positive effect on other factors reflected in the cognitive map. As a result, the constructed cognitive map can reveal the factors determining the need for investment in educational institutions by organizations, which will increase their innovative activity and economic efficiency.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)