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Statistics and Economics

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Vol 18, No 5 (2021)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2021-5

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS

4-13 482
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to assess changes of toll fares used on toll collection points. When toll road is operating in an urban environment, the operator is inevitably faced with the need to adapt intelligent transport system to the conditions of an ever-increasing volume and changing composition of the traffic. Such changes have a direct impact on the capacity of the toll road, in particular at toll collection points. The conducted research is aimed at analyzing the method of reducing the traffic load at the toll collection points during peak hours by making changes to the toll fares aimed at uniform distribution of traffic flow throughout the day. As an example, a toll collection point on the main road direction of the Western High-Speed Diameter toll road was chosen.

Materials and methods. A discrete-event simulation model developed in the AnyLogic software was used to assess the quality of operation and throughput of the toll collection point. The software has a sufficient level of detail to reproduce the operation of the toll collection system, and allows managing all the necessary parameters of the system and traffic flow. Analysis of the data obtained from the simulated model experiments was carried out using the statistical package R.

Results. As part of the study, the operational characteristics of the toll collection point, in particular its threshold capacity, were determined, and, if it was exceeded, the length of the emerging queue was determined. Taking into account the operator’s risks arising from the formation of a traffic congestion, an approach was proposed to change the toll fare policy of the toll road by using a more flexible fares based on dividing the day time fare into several time intervals and using increasing coefficients for toll fare when paying for travel during peak hours. Using the example of toll booth of the Western High-Speed Diameter, the increasing coefficients of the cost of travel at a rush hour were considered, and the risks of reducing the operator’s income from toll collection were assessed.

Conclusion. Based on the results obtained, an assessment of the effectiveness of the application of measures to change the existing toll fare policy, aimed at optimizing the traffic flow of a toll road, can be carried out. In addition, such an analysis can be used to assess the investment attractiveness of a project, develop a toll fare policy, increase income and other similar tasks. Further research can be aimed at increasing the economic indicators of toll road projects, and developing additional mathematical tools used in the formation of toll fare policy.

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

14-25 653
Abstract

The purpose of the study. Currently, much attention is paid to the collection, presentation and analysis of data on the volume, structure and dynamics of economic assets. The value of economic assets, their composition, and effective asset management determine the trajectory of the development of the national economy and its individual sectors. Financial assets are an integral part of economic assets, their importance in the activities of economic entities is steadily increasing. The purpose of the work is to systematize theoretical and practical developments on the  presentation  of data on financial assets in modern macroeconomic statistics of Russia, to determine the directions for improving the methods of evaluating financial assets, the system of indicators characterizing their condition and movement.

Materials and methods. The authors considered the classification of financial assets, applied structural and dynamic data analysis, as well as methods of theoretical research in the form of generalization, comparison and special analytical procedures.

Results. The paper defines the main directions of studying financial assets based on existing international standards, taking into account national statistical practice. The current issues of the theory and practice of statistical observation and presentation of data on financial assets, the adaptation of concepts and classifications of international standards to the Russian system of statistical accounting are considered. The features of the presentation of data on financial assets at the macro level are formulated, which are reflected in the national accounts, the system of indicators of monetary statistics and statistics of foreign economic relations, statistical indicators of the Bank of Russia. The authors conducted a quantitative assessment of the structure and dynamics of indicators characterizing the state and movement of financial assets.

Conclusion. Statistical analysis of economic transactions with financial assets at the level of institutional units and sectors of the economy allows us to identify not only the main trends in the development of the financial sector of the economy, but also makes it possible to comprehensively consider changes in the value and composition of financial assets at the macro level. The change in the value of financial assets is determined on a balance basis, that is, as the difference between the value of acquired and disposed financial assets.

The authors examined in detail the methodological basis for forming a financial account in the context of financial instruments and sectors of the national economy. The financial account provides comprehensive information in the sectoral context on transactions with financial assets and liabilities for the reporting period, allows you to reflect the change in their value as a result of economic operations performed by institutional units, as well as to identify sectors of the economy that did not perform transactions with financial assets. The analysis of the financial account data makes it possible to analyze in detail the change in the value of financial assets at the macro level, to assess the share of the impact of each sector of the economy and the type of asset. A similar approach is applied in analytical procedures with respect to the net obligations assumed.

Macroeconomic statistics reflect the movement of financial assets and liabilities by sectors of the national economy and characterize Russia’s relations with the “rest of the world” by determining the volume of net lending by Russia to other countries or determining its status as a net borrower.

The issues of the theory and practice of presenting data on financial assets and their use are relevant and promising areas for improving national statistical accounting. Work in  this direction continues, although the process of active implementation of international standards in statistical practice has been going on for quite a long time. The quality of primary accounting data on financial sector operations has improved significantly recently, but there are still problems with obtaining data in terms of the full coverage of the statistical aggregate under study, as well as the timing of obtaining reporting data. In addition, the appearance of a large number of new financial instruments and transactions, including modified ones, in the business turnover of institutional units makes it difficult to identify and classify them.

The authors of the article have repeatedly addressed the issues of macroeconomic calculations in their publications, which allowed them to consider in more detail topical issues related to the processes of reflecting financial assets.

SOCIAL STATISTICS

26-37 471
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The study of uneven regional development is necessary to describe the dynamics of changes in the conditions of economic activity in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, to compare them, and in particular to identify problems associated with inequality in providing the territories with infrastructure for training specialists with higher education. The system of higher education is considered in the article as one of the institutions, the state of which characterizes the socio-economic development of the region, provides human resources to the economy of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation.

The purpose of this study is to develop methodological approaches to the study of the processes of divergence / convergence of regions in the field of higher education.

Materials and methods. This paper provides a review of works devoted to research in the field of assessing the dynamics of differentiation of the subjects of the Russian Federation by various indicators. Methods of statistical data analysis were applied: variance, variation coefficients, Gini coefficients, Theil indices were calculated for statistical data on the number of university students in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in different time periods. Graphs reflecting the dynamics of changes in the Gini coefficient, Theil index were built. Microsoft Excel was used to process statistical indicators.

Results. This article describes methodological approaches to the analysis of statistical data characterizing trends in the development of the higher education system in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and presents the results of a study of changes that have occurred in the period from 1995 to 2019 in the Russian Federation in the spatial concentration of the number of university students. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the developed methodological approaches to the study of the processes of divergence / convergence of regions and obtaining new data on the inequality of the spatial concentration of higher education in the Russian Federation. As a result of the statistical analysis, we obtained data on the presence of three periods with different dynamics of changes in the number of university students in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation: from 1995 to 2005, the inequality between the regions in this indicator decreased; from 2006  to 2012 - stabilized, slightly changing; from 2013 to 2019, there has been an increase in regional inequality in terms of the indicator under study.It was revealed that the predominance of the processes of divergence or convergence of regions according to the parameter «the number of students of educational institutions of higher education per 10,000 population in the subject of the Russian Federation» is observed in the same periods. Analysis of interregional variance for this parameter in different time periods showed the dependence of the variance value on the average value of indicators of all regions.

Conclusion. The described methodological approaches to the study of the processes of divergence / convergence of regions in the field of higher education can be used to assess a large amount of statistical data, diagnose regional inequality in this area, and can be used as the basis for substantiating managerial decision-making at the level of public administration in education.

38-46 467
Abstract

The article describes the problem of the lack of a universal adequate method for achieving the representativeness of a sample of real estate objects when modeling their market value.

The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for creating a representative sample of real estate objects. This method can be used by specialists when working with inactive real estate markets in small cities and settlements. On the example of the market of land plots for individual housing in several cities of the Krasnodar krai, the analysis of the features of ensuring representativeness is carried out. There are opportunities and limitations of various tools for forming a representative sample.

Materials and methods. When preparing the paper, the author studied the experience of forming representative samples accumulated by Russian and foreign scientists, considered in detail theoretical and practical approaches to analyzing the quality of the general set of market real estate objects. The methodology proposed in the article was tested on the example of the real estate market of the cities of Krasnodar, Goryachy Klyuch, Armavir. Тhe author used cartographic data, information from specialized portals of the real estate market and from the unified state register of rights. To achieve the objective, theoretical methods (comparative analysis, synthesis, generalization, analogy) and modelling were used.

The main result of the paper is a reasonable method of radial circles, which allows you to select high-quality objects in a sample. Such land plots according to a certain significant price-forming factor in the city under consideration structurally correspond to the plots registered in the unified state real estate register. It is important to establish the conditions under which the sample becomes representative of the pricing factor associated with the location of the object. Тhe analytical material, stages and methods of selecting units in the sample presented in the article are of interest for the real estate researchers, analysts and experts, practitioners of state budgetary institutions engaged in state cadastral valuation.

Conclusion. The method of radial circles can be further developed and used for other price-forming factors when modeling the market value of real estate.

47-59 785
Abstract

Changes in the demographic structure of the population (aging of the population) can directly or indirectly lead to the transformation of key socio-economic indicators. This may affect the structure of revenues and expenditures of the state budget, as well as be reflected in some sectors of the economy. In the foreign literature, a significant number of studies are devoted to the study of the influence of the age structure of the population on the economic indicators of the country. However, in Russia this problem is poorly understood. The age composition of the population also affects the characteristics of socio-economic policy. Population growth in the most productive ages leads to an increase in per capita income, while in the least productive ages to a decrease in per capita income [18]. The greatest growth in the working-age population in the literature is usually defined as the first demographic dividend that was overcome for most developed countries. Currently, developed countries are at a stage when there is a significant increase in the burden of older people. However, according to scientists, in these conditions, an effective policy in the field of income and expenditure management can support the country’s economic growth. This effect is usually called the second demographic dividend. However, in the case of insufficient consumption at older ages, a decrease in total consumption can be observed, and, as a consequence, a decrease in output. Thus, in Russia there is a tendency towards aging of the population and low consumption in older ages.

The purpose of the study is to construct an age profile of population expenditures, as well as to analyze the age structure of population expenditures based on data from the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics.

Materials and methods. In order to construct age profiles of household expenditures and then analyze the age structure of household expenditures, we considered surveys of the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health, conducted by the Higher School of Economics from 2010 to 2018. Before constructing age profiles of population expenditures, a primary statistical analysis of the databases was carried out and anomalous observations were excluded. The obtained age profiles were smoothed using the Friedman method. It is important to note that population expenditure surveys are collected on a per household basis and not per family member. Thus, before constructing age profiles of household expenditures, it is necessary to reallocate household expenditures for each family member. The paper examines the features of the methods of redistribution of expenditures of the population. When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, the recommendations of the National Intergenerational Transfer Accounts project developed by Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason will be used. Data processing was performed in the IBM SPSS and R software package.

Results. When constructing age profiles of population expenditures, there is  an  increase  in  expenditures  in  age groups  over  50  in 2018 compared to 2010. Conclusions are drawn about changes in expenditures on food, durable goods, services, utilities, and health services. The share of expenses for food products ranges from 38.6% to 43.7%. The smallest share of spending on food is observed in the ages from 0 to 9 years (less than 40%). In other age groups, the share of spending on food has no significant fluctuations and is about 42%. The largest share of spending on durable goods falls on the age groups from 0 to 19 years (about 17%). After 20 years, there is a gradual decrease in the share of spending on durable goods (to 6.6% in the age group 75-59). In terms of service category, the largest share of expenses falls on age groups 50-54 (18%). In the age groups over 55 years old, the share of expenditures on services decreases (to 10.7% in the age group 75-59 years old). The expenditures for the category of utilities in the age groups from 0 to 49 years do not change, and then there is a gradual increase in the share of expenses. There is a high proportion of spending on health services in the age groups from 0 to 4 and in the age groups over 60. The results obtained are necessary when constructing forecast values for assessing macroeconomic indicators, planning the state budget.

Conclusion. The article provides a review of foreign and Russian literature on assessing the impact of the age structure of the population on economic growth, calculates the age profile of household expenditures in the Russian Federation, and considers the age structure of household expenditures for 2010 and 2018 by five-year age intervals. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions about the different structure of population expenditures depending on age groups.

STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS

60-70 461
Abstract

The aim of the study is to apply the theory of pedagogical technologies to reveal the possibilities of the new content and methodological line “Big Data Analysis” in the aspect of modernizing the training system of the future economist.

Materials and methods. During the study, theoretical and empirical research methods were used, in particular, a theoretical analysis of methods for structuring the content of education and managing the educational and cognitive activities of higher school students based on technological goal-setting and identifying a sequence of tasks, according to the content and methods of solving graduates close to future professional activities; studying the products of pedagogical activities of lecturers of higher education and experimental work, including the method of pedagogical experiment.

Results. The necessity of modernization of the system of professional training of the future economist in the context of the development of data science through the selection and implementation of a new content-methodological line “Big Data Analysis” is substantiated. It points to the demand for methods of pedagogical design and the theory of pedagogical technologies for the methodologically expedient inclusion of elements of Big Data theory in the practice of professional training of future bachelors of economics. At the same time, attention is paid to both the content of already developed academic disciplines “Probability theory and mathematical statistics”, “Decision theory”, System’s analysis in Economics”, Instrumental methods in Economics”, and the setting of new professionally significant academic disciplines related to quantitative justification of the decisions made. The article presents and methodically describes the components of the content-methodological line “Big Data Analysis”: firstly, a sequence of six micro-goals that allow setting the implementation of this contentmethodological line in the language of educational and cognitive activities of the future bachelor of economics and taking into account the capabilities of new digital tools that support Big Data analysis models; secondly, five didactic modules that can be used to form individual educational trajectories of students of economic bachelor’s degree. Six types of application tasks are presented and characterized, which are of fundamental importance  for  the  implementation  of this content-methodological line. These tasks include the following: “Application problem for the analysis of Big Data on the RapidMiner platform”; “Data clustering application”; “Applied problem of soft and hard clustering”; “Applied classification problem”; “Applied problem on the application of methods for finding association rules”; “Applied problem for text mining”.

Conclusion. The approach proposed by the authors to structuring the content of professional training of the future bachelor of economics allows us to maintain the balance of four educational components of the content and methodological line “Big Data Analysis”: experience in cognitive and creative activities, experience in implementing standard methods of activity and emotional and value relations (ideals of entrepreneurship, value orientations and motives of economic activity, etc.) The material presented in this article can be useful for lecturers of the higher economic school, as well as for everyone who is interested in the modern achievements of data science.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)