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Vol 17, No 5 (2020)
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https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2020-5

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND MACROECONOMIC STATISTICS

4-15 521
Abstract

Purpose of research. The purpose of this article is to implement applied social indicators as the means of research, collection and processing of statistical and practical information. The article analyzes the guidelines and measures of the real effectiveness of state regulation and economic transformations that determine the prospects for implementing demographic policy on the example of the Krasnodar territory.

The search for constructive solutions to the accumulated social problems of “saving the nation” is the subject of the most active and close attention of society, while social guidelines and indicators of the functioning of the economy remain unobvious, outdated, or even completely harmful, as, for example, the usual indicators of the SNA.

For more than a quarter of a century, it has been known fr om a World Bank study conducted on the example of 192 countries of the modern world that 64% of economic growth is provided by human and social capital. It is also obvious that the quality of human resources is becoming the main factor for ensuring a competitive economy. Only with regard to demographic factors and structural characteristics of the demographic potential, the harmonization of the economic growth model with the solution of socio-demographic problems, it is possible to modernize the economy. Meanwhile, according to most experts, including the Institute of Socio-Economic Studies of Population of Russian Academy of Sciences, at least another ten years, population of Russia will decrease and in parallel, to worsen the situation with people's health.

Materials and methods. Methodological conclusions and fundamental principles of modern economic science, including institutional economics, demography, social modernization, adaptation, and social market economy, are used instrumentally in this work.

The information is based on analytical materials and official statistical data of institutions and departments of the Russian Federation, international economic organizations, expert assessments and periodical press data. The research is based on the socio-economic processes of the last decade in the Krasnodar territory, where frightening indicators of natural population growth have been recorded in recent years.

Results. Generalizations and conclusions are important for the development of the economic program to overcome the socio-economic crisis, economic policy, and the choice of priority directions for the development of national and regional economy. The results obtained can serve as a further development of research on the use of an institutional approach to the analysis of economic transformations and problems of state regulation of the social sphere.

Conclusions. The study analyzes the demographic state of the Krasnodar territory and lists the main weaknesses and reasons for the current demographic policy of the region. The study reveals the dependence of the consolidated budget of the region on the gross regional product and the average annual population, and provides recommendations for preserving and increasing the population of the Krasnodar territory.

DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

16-26 1829
Abstract

The relevance of the article is due to the need for radical changes in the Russian pension system, its adaptation to modern requirements of the economy, social conditions and individual needs of people, which became even more obvious in the era of the global economic crisis.

The purpose of the research is to conduct a statistical study of the structure of pensioners and pension provision in Russia and to develop further opportunities for the dynamics of the pension system and systematize scientific and methodological approaches to using statistical methods to assess the state and development trends of thepension system in Russia. Such an analysis will allow forming a scientific and theoretical basis for making management decisions in the field of social policy.

Materials and methods. The article used statistical methods and techniques for studying the development of the pension system as an information-supported element in making managerial decisions about the need and directions for its reform. The calculations were carried out using official statistics.

Results. The analysis of the structure of pensioners and pensions carried out in the section showed an increase in the share of old-age pensioners and the number of pensioners receiving social supplements, with most of the burden falls on the federal budget, since the proportion of pensioners receiving federal supplements is growing. The article focuses on the need to attract statistical tools for in-depth and scientifically grounded study of the entire complexity and versatility of economic phenomena and processes inherent in the state pension system. Based on the results of the studies carried out, the main problems have been systematized: the uneven distribution by age of the population of Russia, and this unevenness increases over time; a decrease in the share of the working-age population since 2002, an increase in the aging rate and average age, changes in the median and modal intervals. It is substantiated that the identified trends predetermine the need to reform the pension system, taking into account the aging of the population, in view of the forecast of the dynamics of the indicators presented in the article.

The following limitations of the development of the pension system are identified in the work: a decrease in indicative poverty indicators in the country, a decrease in economic inequality as a result of differentiation of incomes of working and non-working population, reduction and compensation of the impact of economic and demographic risks inherent in any society. An analysis of the reform of the Russian pension system led to the conclusion that initially it was mainly aimed at improving its financial balance and modifying the parameters of the existing system.

Conclusion. The trends in the aging of the population, economic and family changes, as well as their impact on the economy and the labor market, shown in the article make us reconsider the paradigm of the existing pension system. The results obtained indicate the need to increase the funding of the pension system.
27-37 2573
Abstract

Purpose of the research. Employment of disabled people can be considered as a kind of reserve of the labor potential of the population in the conditions of aging and reduction of the population of working age. The purpose of the article is to consider the regional differentiation of employment of disabled people, to identify factors that affect the level of their employment and typological groups of Russian regions depending on the situation in the field of employment of disabled people.

Materials and methods. The article is based on data on official disability for 2012-2019 and employment of disabled people, reflected in the system of state statistical accounting, as well as sample surveys of Rosstat. In addition, we used data on employment of disabled people from the Federal register of disabled people, which is operated by the Pension Fund of Russia.

The conclusions of the article are based on the results of statistical analysis of data using descriptive statistics methods, calculation of nonparametric criteria (Tau-b Kendall) to assess differences in the distributions of indicators that characterize the socio-economic status of disabled people, as well as cluster analysis to identify typological groups of regions in terms of the situation in the employment of disabled people.

Results. More than half of Russian disabled people are over the age of 60 (58.9% at the beginning of 2020). Age structure of disabled people affects their employment. People with disabilities do not feel in demand in the labor market. The share of employed (working) disabled people in Russia is 14.9% (2019). The employment rate of disabled people in the regions varies significantly – from 7.2% to 29.2%. Moreover, in 75 Russian regions, the share of working disabled does not exceed 20% of their number. The result of a cluster analysis based on data describing the employment of disabled people in the context of Russian regions in 2019 was the division of 85 regions of Russia into 4 clusters. There is a certain correlation between variables such as the percentage of disabled people working and the percentage of disabled people in employment, and the level of poverty in the regions. The share of disabled people among all employed in the region is related to the level of wages in the region and the amount of disability pensions.

Conclusion. The small size of the disability pension encourages the employment of disabled people. In regions where the level of poverty is relatively low, even with high wages, employment of disabled people is minimal, due to both higher levels of social guarantees and competition between disabled/non-disabled people for jobs.

The calculations show that, if appropriate conditions are created, the share of employed persons with disabilities among all disabled people may increase, which will attract from 33.5 thousand employees to 611.5 thousand employees to the labor market. Increasing employment for people with disabilities is important for the well-being of people with disabilities, as well as for the state and society.

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

38-48 760
Abstract

Purpose of research. It is necessary to clearly define the composition and structure of economic assets to conduct a systematic statistical analysis of the state and development of the national economy, including at the level of sectors, subsectors and institutional units.

The purpose of the work is to systematize data on the availability and movement of economic assets in the context of information sources, methods of their assessment and analysis of the practice of macroeconomic calculations.

Materials and methods. In this paper, the authors considered the classification of economic assets, applied structural and dynamic data analysis, as well as methods of theoretical research in the form of generalization, comparison, and special analytical procedures.

Results. Statistical study of economic transactions with assets involves a detailed review of the groupings and classifications of assets at the level of institutional units, sectors of the economy and the economy as a whole, which will provide reliable information about their availability and movement. In addition, it is necessary to understand the essence of statistical indicators that reflect the state and change in the value of assets, the methodology for their calculation, comprehensive analysis and practical use. The paper defines the main directions for studying economic assets based on current international standards, taking into account national statistical practice.

Conclusion. As part of a systematic statistical analysis of the state and development of the national economy in various areas, it is necessary to clearly define the composition and structure of economic assets, their place and significance in the production of goods and services.

The issue of assessing the value of economic assets, which should reflect their market value, is of significant importance. Improving methods for assessing economic assets is an urgent problem not only for macroeconomic calculations, but also for adequately reflecting economic operations at the level of institutional units and sectors of the economy.

Economic assets are recognized as such if they bring economic benefits to their owner. Evaluating the effectiveness of asset use in economic activities or asset ownership is no less challenging for analysts. Such analytical procedures require a comprehensive analysis of data on the availability and movement of assets, their composition and structure, including from an international perspective.

The authors of the article have repeatedly addressed the issues of macroeconomic calculations in their publications, which allowed them to consider in more detail topical issues related to the accumulation of non-financial and financial assets.

49-58 647
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The relevance of studying the issues of assessing the volume of shipped products is due to at least two reasons. On the one hand, its role as a resultant indicator of the activity of territorial systems, on the other, its primary nature in relation to the subsequent stages of distribution and consumption. The increase in production is directly related to domestic consumption and the possibilities of promoting manufactured goods to foreign markets, which is characterized by the volume of retail and wholesale trade. The need to search for opportunities for growth in production determines the need to expand the existing ideas about these connections, including the effects of time and space. In the context of the economic space network development, the changes cannot be ignored in production and trade processes in some territories in isolation from the processes taking place in other territories. At the same time, it is obvious that any current state is a consequence of the position achieved by the considered territory in the past. The purpose of the study is to assess the spatial dependence of the volume of the shipped products in dynamics in relation to the indicators of wholesale and retail trade.

Materials and methods. The paper evaluates spatial autocorrelation using univariate and bivariate Moran's indexes – indicators, characterizing production, distribution and exchange of goods. Based on the selected spatial dependencies, three models were consistently built on the panel data from 2010-2019 for 85 regions of the Russian Federation: pooled model, panel-based spatial lag model; model with a spatially weighted factor variable. The calculations were performed using the GeoDA program.

Results. The results showed that spatial effects should be taken into account in the study of the volume of products shipped. The value of the global Moran's index shows a high direct connection between the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the volume of shipped products (0.29-0.39), with a weak connection for the wholesale trade turnover (0.06-0.18). In turn, the bivariate Moran's index showed that the volume of shipped products has a spatial relationship with the turnover of wholesale trade in neighboring regions of the Russian Federation. Domestic final consumption, characterized by per capita retail trade turnover, also has a positive effect on the volume of products shipped per capita. The constructed models showed that the volume of shipped products is positively affected by an increase in wholesale trade in the region and in neighboring territories, retail trade in the region and the development of production in neighboring territories.

Conclusion. The article discusses a model that allows linking the development of the production of goods with the state of the channels of their promotion both inside the territory and outside it. At the same time, the use of panel data in the calculations helps to obtain reliable and meaningful estimates in the models. Within the framework of the proposed models, it was possible to identify the connection between production and wholesale trade, which was not previously determined on cross-sectional data. The results obtained make it possible to improve the quality of decisions made in matters of the territorial organization of economic activity in the regions, contributing to the development of production that depends on the possibilities of promoting manufactured goods through the wholesale and retail network.

STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS

59-67 570
Abstract

 The aim of the research is to analyze the emotional state of a person using stochastic methods and to study the dynamic characteristics of this state. The study uses statistical characteristics that are suitable for creating artificial intelligent systems, as well as for further development and design of organizational and technical systems. It is assumed that the emotional state of a person is determined by the amount of stress he experiences over a certain period of time. To account for the emotional responses of the cognitive system corresponding to the reactions of the human personality, the known results are used. In particular, to characterize the relative values of stress, the Holmes and Rahe scale was used, which contains 43 typical life situations with corresponding relative values of stress. It should be emphasized that all known results relate to time-independent stress models, and only the results of statistical processing of measurements of the impact of stress on the individual at certain time intervals are published.

Materials and methods of research are the application of the Poisson model of stress occurrence in the process of system functioning. It is assumed that stresses are those impacts that are then processed, perceived, processed, and used by the individual and the organizational and technical system that models it. The occurrence of stresses over time is modeled by point Poisson processes, and the stress of each type according to Holmes and Rahe is described by a process with the corresponding individual function of the intensity of the occurrence of points (stresses). Dynamic responses of the system are described by well-known response functions in the theory of control systems. The key parameter of the response function is the time constant, which characterizes the typical response time of the system to individual stress.

New results of the study are estimates of the average frequency of occurrence of various types of stress, which allowed us to determine the mentioned functions of the intensity of occurrence of stress in the Poisson model. This, in turn, made it possible to develop analytical relations for the relative amount of stress processed by the system for the current time. Thus, a model of the emotional state of the cognitive system (the development of the process of experiencing stress over time) is proposed in the form of a decreasing function of time with a certain time constant that characterizes the inertial properties of experiencing stress. Specific results and corresponding curves are obtained for the exponential response function of the system, which depends on the current time, times of stress occurrence, and relative stress values. In general, they correspond to the predictions of similar reactions for the individual obtained in published studies. In this regard, the model can be applied in the engineering design of organizational and technical systems that require accounting or modeling of emotional reactions.

In conclusion, the directions of further development of the theory are indicated. In particular, the possibility of studying the reaction of the system to events, the occurrence of which is described by functions of the intensity of their occurrence, depending on time, which, of course, will bring the research results closer to real situations. Another important area may be the introduction of indicators and criteria for stress tolerance of systems to the consideration and study of behavior.

ICT IN STATISTICS

68-80 2546
Abstract

This article presents the main directions of improving the methodology of using advanced information and communication technologies in the statistical industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of the digitalization of the economy. In particular, it is shown that modern ICTs have a huge potential for global competitiveness and contribute to the growth of the country's economy.

Currently, in the statistical industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan, a large number of statistical calculations and forecasts are carried out on the basis of the use of the advanced ICT, there is experience in organizing interaction between information systems (IS), operating in the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (Goskomstat), however, in preparation for population census and the implementation of the National Program “Digital Uzbekistan – 2030”, there is a need to develop new methodological solutions, technologies, software products, innovative mechanisms for collecting, processing and providing reporting information to various categories of users based on the use of the advanced ICT.

Purpose. The goal is to develop scientifically grounded directions for improving the methodology for the application of advanced information and communication technologies in the statistical activities of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of the formation of the digital economy.

Materials and methods. In the process of developing the main directions for improving the methodology for the application of information and communication technologies in the statistical activity of the Republic of Uzbekistan, comparative, systemic, economic and statistical, SWOT analysis, methods of monographic research, questionnaire survey, statistical sampling, grouping, comparison, induction, deduction, optimization method, as well as methods of working with WEB-sites, computer networks and specialized software products were used.

Results. The scientific article presents the main directions of improving the methodology for the application of advanced information and communication technologies in the statistical activities of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of the formation of a digital economy, in particular with the aim of achieving maximum reliability and efficiency in collecting and processing statistical data, as well as the openness and quality of information when receiving consolidated indicators for various user requests, an analysis of the functionality of information systems and technologies used in the statistical field was carried out, a methodology for the provision of modern state interactive services to end users was developed on the basis of the implementation of a digital analytical platform, mechanisms for improving the quality of state statistical reporting based on the use of web service technologies were proposed, scientific approaches to the integration of statistical activities with other ministries and departments in the in the context of the digitalization of the economy are expressed.

The author concludes that the digital economy changes all spheres of life in modern society, contributes to the formation of a new management paradigm, methods and means based on the strengthening of the role of science as a leading productive force generating more and more new knowledge, leading to new trends in the improvement of managerial processes, solving problems of information compatibility of various software and technological complexes, which, in turn, contributes to the processes of globalization and improvement of the social sphere of the national economy, which are manifested not only in the growth of production indicators, but also in the improvement of the quality of life of the country's population.

The article shows that a comprehensive analysis, statistical data on the development of innovative processes in the economy allow us to note that innovations based on the use of the advanced ICT contribute to improving the technical and technological basis of production processes, optimizing management processes, and developing human capital. In addition, in the course of the analysis, it was found that the modern world is undergoing changes under the influence of new information and management decisions, which ultimately affects the development of the scientific, production and intellectual potential of industries and spheres of the national economy.

Conclusion. This study shows that in the context of the digitalization of the economy, there is a transformation of statistical activities based on the use of the advanced ICT. Digital transformation means the introduction of modern digital technologies into the business processes of socio-economic systems of all levels. This approach implies not only the installation of modern equipment, software or a single technology, but also fundamental changes in approaches to management, corporate culture and external communications. Improving management in this aspect contributes to an increase in the productivity of each employee, optimization of information exchange and achievement of high results in the economic market.


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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)