The purpose of the research is to identify factors that determine the level of gross regional product, using the construction of econometric models. In terms of the economic theory the volume of gross added value of the region depends on existence of resources, efficiency of use of resources, level of effective demand for the consumption of gross added value, level of export, structure of the regional economy. In the article, by constructing econometric models with a different set of factors, the most essential and statistically significant factors determining the level of gross regional product were identified.

Materials and methods. Official data of Federal State Statistics Service for 2016 formed empirical base of the research. The aggregate of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was considered as a statistical aggregate as an object of study, and both the complete aggregate of subjects and the aggregate of entities with a gross regional product level of less than and more than a trillion rubles were studied. Research method is econometric modeling of gross regional product based on spatial data on constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The parameters of the multiple linear regression models in absolute values and in logarithms were estimated using the least squares method. To test the null hypotheses, a five percent significance level was adopted. Interval estimation of model parameters was carried out taking into account standard errors consistent under heteroskedasticity. The quality of models was defined by coefficient of determination, mean relative error of approximation, Ramsey’s test checking a null hypothesis about lack of the passed variables in model. Implementation of the research was carried out in the RStudio software product.

Results. Eight qualitative models of multiple linear regression are constructed. Two models are constructed on the general set of constituent entities of the Russian Federation: 1) model in absolute values with three quantitative signs and one attributive sign characterizing group of entities on the level of a gross regional product; 2) three-factor model in logarithms. Two models are constructed on set of entities with a gross regional product less than one trillion rubles: 1) model in absolute values with seven quantitative signs, five of which were statistically significant; 2) four-factor model in logarithms. Four two-factor models are constructed on set of entities with a gross regional product more than one trillion rubles.

Conclusion. In all constructed models the most significant factors of the level of gross regional product are: a) factor of fixed capital (average annual residual cost of fixed assets); b) factor of effective demand (expressed by one of the following indicators: social expenses of the budget, total income of the population, wage fund); c) factor of level of financial resources (expressed by the volume of average annual balances on ruble accounts of legal persons and balance of incomes and expenses of the enterprises and organizations). At creation of econometric models statistically insignificant were factors of resource efficiency (capital productivity, labor productivity, profitability), factors characterizing the volume of foreign economic activity and a share of the extractive industries. The economy of the regions in 2016 can be described as an economy of an extensive type, focusing on the use of domestic capital and financial resources.

Purpose of the study. The main purpose of this research is to develop a methodological basis for material support of groups of troops (forces) on the territory of a foreign state in a military conflict.

Materials and methods. The following methods are used: a systematic approach to the study and development of methodological foundations to improve the efficiency of material support of troops (forces) outside the Russian Federation; methods of economic analysis, analytical, statistical, logical, linguistic and graphical methods; applied general scientific and specific methods of substantiation of the concept: abstraction and concretization, historical and logical, as well as methods of graphic and mathematical modeling, factor analysis.

Results. The technique of development of material support of group of troops (forces) operating in the territory of the foreign state in the conditions of the military conflict is developed. Factors of influence on the process of formation and management of the assortment of commercial and household support for a group of troops (forces) operating outside the Russian Federation are systematized. Exogenous and endogenous factors of formation of parameters of trade and household (sales and service) network of the divisions providing grouping of troops (forces) in the territory of the foreign state are offered. The assortment policy of divisions of material support of the contingent of troops (forces) operating in the territory of the foreign state as the systematized set of the purposes, tasks and the main directions of formation of the trade and household range planned by the management of this group and staff of logistics of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is defined.

Conclusion. Material support activities require consideration of the principles and conceptual frameworks that determine their sustainability and effectiveness. The initial stage of formation and development of system of material support of the military personnel outside the Russian Federation, dynamism of external factors of the environment of providing divisions and high degree of commercial risk (for all subjects of process of commodity circulation), demand continuous tracking or dynamic adequate decisions in the sphere of operational management of implementation of strategy of development of material support regarding formation of assortment policy.

Purpose of the study. This study examines the state of companies of oil sector based on the analysis of dynamics and relationship between basic financial indicators, characterizing the activities of oil companies; it identifies factors affecting the companies’ efficiency, such as return on sales (ROS) and productivity. The work is based on dynamic, structural, correlation analysis of analytical and statistical information on processes occurring in this area of economic activity.

Materials and methods. Statistical data and analytical information on oil sector companies serve as the information base of this study. Statistical methods of information analysis (comparative analysis, analysis of time series, correlation, and regression analysis) represent the methodological base of research.

Results. The authors analyzed the development trends of the global and Russian oil and gas sectors. The last two decades have been marked by changes in the global oil market that were caused by fluctuations in the price of oil and oil products and with the rise and fall in the price of Brent crude oil per barrel.

The paper considers dynamics of financial indicators of Russian oil companies. An analysis of the data on the revenue of the largest Russian companies in ruble and dollar terms over the last 10 years has revealed a significant difference in the dynamics of these indicators. The authors performed ROS and oil price profitability correlation as well as correlation between the price of oil, the exchange rate and the profitability of oil companies.

Conclusion. The oil and gas industry is an essential sector of the economy that heavily promotes to the socio-economic development of our country. Revenues of the oil and gas sector contribute to the Russian GDP and are a major component of the budget. There are two ways to calculate revenue of oil companies – in ruble (dollar terms) and impact of RUB/USD exchange rate. The sharp changes in the exchange rate of the last decade have advanced significant changes in the revenue of Russian oil companies.

In this study, the total revenue (in dollar terms) was calculated as the ratio of revenue in rubles to the average annual exchange rate of the corresponding period. In general, the disastrous results of 2015 and 2016 led to a decrease in the average growth rates of dollar and ruble revenue, as well as profit and profitability.

The authors performed a correlation analysis of return on sales and oil prices, which revealed an almost total absence of correlation between these indicators. Oil prices and exchange rates have a negligible effect on the profitability of oil companies. An inverse correlation is observed between the RUB/USD pair and the oil price per barrel. It is concluded that the cost of oil and the exchange rate have little effect on the profitability of oil companies.

Since the oil and gas complex makes a very significant contribution to the development of the country’s economy, it is advisable to analyze its development trends on a regular basis. Based on the results of the economic and statistical analysis of financial indicators, it is possible to identify the main development directions of the oil and gas industry, evaluate positive and negative processes, and determine further prospects.

The basic methodological aspects and approbation results of forecasting and planning of the sales volumes of a fish processing enterprise, depending from a natural and climatic factor (environmental temperature) are considered in the article through the example of the groups of companies “Art-fish” of Vologda city. The dependence of volume of consumer demand for products of the fish processing enterprise from the ambient temperature regime is educed. The methods of building of a regression model between time series of the studied indexes and the order of calculation of forecasting levels of daily revenue are described. The economic model of the dynamic dependence of daily revenue of fish product sales from the average environmental temperature is built. The forecasts of the revenue levels of sales taking into account the dynamics influence of the average daily temperature of the environment and the weekly cycle of its fluctuations are received. The presented methods of modeling and forecasting of the level of daily revenue will allow taking reasonable decisions in practice for evaluation of planned values of product procurement for sale within a short-term upcoming period; that is timely in the conditions of fast-changing consumer market.

Purpose was in finding and modeling of the dynamic dependence of daily revenue of sales of the fish-processing enterprise from the fluctuations of the ambient temperature regime and the development of the methods of its forecasting.

Materials and methods. As part of the study the methods of econometric modeling were used in complex based on the time series, including the building of the trend models, models with a cyclical component, regression models. The indexes of the operating results of the group of companies “Art-fish” of Vologda city served as the primary data. They were taken from the bases of the mentioned enterprises. The indexes of the temperature regime of the environment were received from the Weather journal of the official website of weather forecast Gismeteo.

Results. The research required quite a deep study of the character and peculiarities of the dynamics of the indexes of daily revenue and preparation of the data for modeling. While studying the regularities of interdependent dynamics of the indexes of revenue and environmental temperature the number of important conclusions were received that consequently defined the methods of building of the regression model and the order of calculation of the forecasting levels. The presence of the firm inverse correlation between the trend of the daily revenue and environmental temperature was educed. Herewith the analysis of the results of forecasting using the received models showed that the forecast accuracy, both point and interval with a weakening of the strength of the manifestation of the correlation dependence between the signs does not decrease. According to the results of correlation-regression analysis the methods of forecasting of the levels of daily revenue for fish-processing enterprises were suggested which would allow taking reasonable decisions for evaluation of the planned volumes of product procurement for sale within a short-term upcoming period that was timely in the conditions of a fast-changing consumer market.

Conclusion. As the studies showed, consumer demand for the products of fish processing enterprises flexibly responded to the change of the ambient temperature. This fact allowed developing the methodological approaches to the forecasting of the levels of daily revenue that was absolutely necessary for taking reasonable decisions on planning of the volumes of procurement and output of production for a short- term upcoming period. In the contemporary market conditions and uncertainty the possibility to plan production and financial activities for processing enterprises of food industry is especially currently topical.

Purpose of research. The differentiation of the population in terms of welfare is part of the reality of the modern society and becomes the subject of acute debate. There is a need for a comprehensive assessment of the level of economic inequality and poverty to further substantiate the mechanism of coordination of activities to address the problems of their reduction. The joint use of monetary and non-monetary approaches allows achieving the goal of the study – a comprehensive and objective statistical assessment of the level of economic inequality and poverty of the Russian population.

Materials and methods. The information base of the study was the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, as well as materials of analytical and scientific reports “Report on inequality in the world 2018”, “Poverty and income inequality in Russia and abroad”, “Russian society after the presidential elections – 2018: a request for change”, etc. Monetary indicators of economic inequality were used as statistical tools: decile coefficient of funds and Gini coefficient and non-monetary (subjective) approach. The subjective approach to poverty assessment is based on the data of the sample survey of household budgets in 2018.

Results. A comparative analysis of economic inequality on a global scale shows that there are significant cross-country differences in income inequality, ranging from lower levels in Europe to high levels in the Middle East. Russia is one of the countries with a strong stratification of the population into rich and poor, where the value of the upper decile is 46% of the national income. The analysis of the dynamics of monetary indicators of economic inequality in the Russian Federation showed their increasing trend over the period from 1995 to 2018 and exceeding the established thresholds. According to the data of 2018, the value of the decile ratio of funds is 15,5 – that is, it is so many times the average income of the rich population exceeds the income of the poor. Gini index value of 0,41 for the same period indicates that the expected income difference between the two randomly selected income pairs will be 82% of the average income. The results of the non-monetary (subjective) approach to assessing economic inequality and poverty showed that the financial situation of 34,4% of households is unsatisfactory (incomes are barely enough for food, buying clothes and paying for housing and communal services are difficult). Even by 53,9% of households noted the lack of funds for the purchase of durable goods.

Conclusion. The current situation with the increasing disproportion in the distribution of income of the population of Russia testifies to the active process of stratification of society. The results of the study showed excessive inequality in income of the population of the Russian Federation and the concentration of national wealth in the hands of the “upper” part of the first decile. The subjective approach to poverty assessment confirms the social stratification of society: more than 88% of Russians consider themselves to be poor.

The purpose of this study is to analyze current global and regional climate changes, as well as a statistical assessment of the factors that cause climate change, on the one hand, and an assessment of the impact of climate parameters on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes using the example of the Yaroslavl region, on the other hand. The study was conducted on the example of the Yaroslavl region and covers the period from 1922 to the present. First of all, the article analyzes the regulatory documents on ecology and climate change. The insufficient attention of federal and local authorities to solving the above problems, the lack of regional strategies to prevent climate change and reduce its negative consequences, which leads to the increased socio-economic risks, is noted. In order to identify factors causing climate change, a correlation and regression analysis was performed. Regression models of the dependence of crop yields on the average annual air temperature and the average annual precipitation were constructed. The statistical base of the study was compiled by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service and the territorial body of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Yaroslavl Region, as well as GISMETEO data. Processing of the research results was carried out in Microsoft Excel and SPSS.

During the study, it was found that in the Yaroslavl region there is an increase in average annual and average monthly air temperatures, as well as a slight increase in precipitation, which mainly occurs due to an increase in rainfall in spring and early summer.

The anthropogenic factors that cause climate change, namely the burning of fossil fuels, an increase in industrial production, an increase in the number of vehicles, as well as a change in land use and deforestation, are identified and statistically substantiated.

As a result of the study, it was found that changes in climatic parameters have an impact on the economy, agriculture and demographic processes, namely:

 – climate change has a positive effect on agricultural production. According to studies, an increase in average air temperature is a positive factor for the agricultural sector of the Yaroslavl region, as crop yields will increase with increasing air temperature. These trends need to be considered when choosing certain varieties of crops and selecting fertilizers. Increasing the level of management and the transition to more modern technologies will have a greater effect. The efficiency and productivity of agriculture, as well as the food security of the region, will depend on these decisions;

 – it was found that hydro meteorological factors have a negligible effect on the growth rate of gross regional product and food production;

 – a statistical study showed that in the Yaroslavl region the effects of climate change on demographic processes and human health are currently insignificant.

The findings can be used to develop mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and can serve as a basis for further research in the field of studying the impact of climate change on socio-economic and demographic processes in the Yaroslavl region.

The purpose of this research is a detection of U.S. consumer price index development and change ways emerged in the second half of XX century. Consumer price index is considered as a practically evaluable index number.

Materials and methods. This research is based on the methodology documents of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and its theoretical and practical papers published in Monthly Labor Review. The basic method is historical and descriptive techniques.

Results. Data generalization for U.S. consumer price index across five revisions is realized in structure of the calculation method, adapted by ROSSTAT for the national consumer price index. Firstly the dynamic of number of cities, included in consumer price survey and changes of its sample is analyzed. Secondly the principles of point of purchase sampling is in focus. Thirdly the set of goods and services and dynamics of its structure are considered. Fourthly there is a generalization of pricing procedure principles that is frequency according to the type of cities and feature of goods and services. Fifthly the source and limits of data collecting for weights which needed for consumer price index calculation on the high level of aggregation. And sixthly there is description of mean price and price index calculation.

Conclusion. The main ways of development and transformation in U.S. consumer price index are defined. It may be considered as alternative solutions in consumer price index of other countries. The main ways are the increase of city and goods sampling, extension of probability use, formation of good classification, equal temporal interval of weight renovation and creation of price index system.

The aim of the study is to formulate a formal definition of the cognitive system on the basis of a simplified representation of human cognitive activity and on this basis to develop methods for engineering design of the cognitive system model. The process of cognition is modeled as the interaction of several structures of the human personality. The main structures that directly implement the process of cognition are the subconscious mind and the consciousness interacting with it. Using the technique of engineering design of the cognitive model, the architecture of the intellectual system using the cognitive planning mechanism of control actions is developed. An agent-oriented approach was chosen to implement the cognitive mechanism of control actions formation. The algorithm of formation of purposeful behavior adaptation plans of intellectual system is investigated. The knowledge base of the intelligent system is built with the adaptation of purposeful behavior.

The method of research is the application of the principles of the theory of dynamic automatic control systems to the simplified processes of cognition and the synthesis of algorithms and technical devices on this basis. The development of an intelligent system of purposeful behavior was conducted on the basis of an agent- oriented approach. To describe the mechanism of purposeful behavior, an integrated approach to knowledge representation is used, combining the advantages of logical and network methods. The main results of the work are the development of a formal definition of a cognitive system in the form of an automatic control system in the state space. The subconscious is modeled by the space of states of the cognitive system, formed as a result of interaction with the outside world. The process of cognition is presented in the form of evaluation by consciousness of the elements of the space of states, which is called the space of evaluations. Interaction with the outside world is modeled both in the form of management of the outside world, and in the form of its informing. On the basis of these representations the structure of the intellectual system realizing the cognitive mechanism of planning of control actions is developed. The architecture of multi-agent system of control actions formation for purposeful behavior is presented. The knowledge base for the formation of adaptation plans of purposeful behavior of the intellectual system is developed.

For the key procedures of the cognitive system functioning, the concepts of optimal estimates of state vectors and optimal control process are introduced, which allow to synthesize the best in a certain sense algorithms and technical devices. The use of this technique allowed developing a structure of an intelligent system that implements cognitive mechanism for the planning of control actions; the multi-agent system architecture of formation control actions for goal-directed behavior; knowledge base of intellectual system for planning control actions. The intelligent system was developed using multi-agent technology. Subsystems were formed in the form of separate functional formations-multi-agent systems.