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Vol 16, No 2 (2019)
View or download the full issue PDF (Russian)
https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2019-2

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS

4-14 821
Abstract

Statistical study of the primary real estate market is always associated with the problem that the object is in a constant, and very intense change, both in quantitative terms and in its internal content. Therefore, the issues of constant adaptation of statistical methodology in relation to the primary real estate market are relevant continuously. Among the tasks that are constantly in the field of statistical science and practice in relation to the primary real estate market are the following. First, a critical analysis of the content of the modern primary real estate market, which should allow to identify its fundamental features as an object of statistical research, to systematize the economic relations of the subjects of this market segment for a comprehensive statistical analysis of its functioning and development in any region of Russia. Secondly, it is the construction of analytical classifications of the primary real estate market, systematization of criteria for their construction, which should allow for a qualitative analysis of the structure of this market segment in the modern market economy. Third, the continuous improvement of the system of statistical indicators of the primary real estate market, which should be constantly supplemented by various blocks of indicators, the use of which will link the development of the primary real estate market with indicators of the standard of living of the population and socio-economic development of a particular region on the basis of the formation and ordering of its various subsystems, which will increase their consistency with indicators of living standards and socio-economic development. To Develop the theory and statistical methodology of the complex study of the primary real estate market in terms of the development of criteria for the division of the object into homogeneous groups by typological characteristics and the construction on their basis of statistical classifications necessary for the structural analysis of the primary real estate market. To obtain scientific results in this article, General scientific methods of cognition, such as scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, are used, since it is a question of dividing a single whole into typologically homogeneous complexes, the organic relationship between which ensures the integrity and unity of the studied object – the primary real estate market. In addition, the use of the statistical grouping method is considered throughout the work, as it is an applied application of typological criteria. The main classification features of economic assets traded in the primary real estate market of the region are Substantiated and formulated. The development of criteria for the typological division of the object allowed to build statistical classifications necessary for a comprehensive analysis of the structure and structural changes in the primary real estate market. In the scientific article deals with the problematic aspects of a statistical study of the primary real estate market in parts of its etymology on the basis of clear criteria against which to understand the quality and properties of the traded on its economic assets, to build a statistical classification. All this is a step in the first stage of the statistical study in the sequence that is classically considered by the General theory of statistics. Statistical classifications and groupings by typological features precede the science-intensive substantiation and application of complex mathematical and static methods for factor analysis and forecasting of primary real estate market indicators.

NEW DIRECTIONS IN STATISTICAL SCIENCE AND PRACTICE

15-24 1546
Abstract

Purpose of the study. Recently, in the world, the importance of distributed registry technologies is not only actively discussed, but also has been the subject of various studies in most developed countries and in many areas of the economy. In this regard, the key objective of the study is to study and systematize scientific approaches to assessing the effectiveness of using distributed registry technologies in the context of the development of the economy as a number, and to use the possibility of using them to find ways to optimize cryptobusiness and to develop the economy as a whole. Thus, the issues of forming indicators of the efficiency of technologies of the distributed registry, reflecting the state of various spheres of cryptoeconomics both at the Russian and international levels, as well as approbation of the mechanism for evaluating the effectiveness of using the technologies of the distributed registry in the context of the considered indicators are relevant. Materials and methods. The effectiveness of the use of distributed registry technologies in this study is considered in the financial industry, business processes of companies and international practice. The study presents a description of both the methodological approaches themselves and the performance indicators, the criterion or logical levels of which allowed us to obtain information about the possibilities for efficient use of the blockchain. During the study, theoretical methods were applied, such as the synthesis and analysis of available information. In order to conduct quantitative data analysis, a correlation method was implemented. In order to visualize the results of the study, tabular and graphical data visualization methods were applied. For the processing of quantitative information, the SPSS.23 application software package was used. Results. The results of the study allowed to determine the main directions for evaluating the effectiveness of using the distributed registry technologies, systematize the existing approaches to the formation of a system of indicators for the assessment of technologies of distributed registries, including foreign ones. Approbation of the mechanism for evaluating the effectiveness of using the distributed registry technology allowed to establish a significant effect of the cryptocurrency rate (BTC-USD) and the amount of “coins” in circulation on the market capitalization rate. A fairly significant relationship is observed between the rate of cryptocurrency and international stock indexes, in particular with the Index of metals and mining. Conclusion. The study made it possible to formulate the main system directions for evaluating the effectiveness of using the distributed registry technologies, based on the study of various concepts. The use of a number of approaches observed in the practice of researching this subject area allows for a comprehensive analysis of the blockchain. Using the tools of statistical analysis, the influence of factors on the main indicators of the cryptocurrency market was established.

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

25-33 2525
Abstract

The purpose of the article is consider in research of statistical methodology for studying regions of the Russian Federation in terms of investment attractiveness. The world practice shows that investment growth ensure the economy growth both at national level and regional level. The maxim is proved by the experience of most countries which have committed in the past decade a sharp spurt in its economic development. This realization has led to the fact that both developed and emerging economies try to attract investment in the economy on a national and regional scale and it is considered as one of the priorities of economic policy In the context of geopolitical instability, deteriorating economic conditions, the weakening of the Russian Federation in the global market need to pay more attention to the investment policy and the attractiveness of the regions. Investment activity and attractiveness of territories today – a reserve of development and real way to achieve strategic objectives. An important factor in the development of regions is their investment  attractiveness. Meanwhile, at present there is no method of statistical research of investment attractiveness adapted to regional features. Regions of the Russian Federation have significant differences in investment attractiveness by various factors. The article analyzes factors which influence the inflow of investments in the regions of Russia and identifies groups of regions with similar characteristics of investment attractiveness. Materials and methods. The methods of evaluation of investment attractiveness of territories (regions and cities) are discussed. The reasons for the investment is proposed to be assessed by the production potential of the regional economy, the domestic market of the region, sectoral types of economy (agriculture, extraction of natural resources), and the infrastructure of the region. The methodological basis of the study consists of works on regional statistics, mathematical modeling, and econometrics. Graphic and tabular methods of visualization of research results, statistical methods of analysis of economic phenomena were used. To solve the tasks of the study, application packages SPSS, Statistica were used. Results. This paper provides an analysis of Russia’s investment attractiveness and demonstrates current investment situation in the country. In conclusion, this report addresses key challenges of attracting investment in Russia, clarified the essence of investment attractiveness as an object of statistical research; revealed features of the regions; recommendations on the formation of a system of statistical indicators characterizing the investment attractiveness of the region; identified groups of regions with similar characteristics of investment attractiveness. Conclusion. The article discusses differentiation of Russian regions in their investment activity, analyses the factors led to this differentiation. The heterogeneity of investment space in Russia is one of the features of its economy. High investment attractiveness is a key factor in improving the competitiveness of the country, a significant and sustained financial growth. Identification of regions with similar characteristics of investment attractiveness allows us to develop management solutions adapted to regional characteristics.

34-44 4224
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to study the level of labor productivity as the most important conditions for sustainable economic growth and improving the competitiveness of the national economy Materials and methods. The study used the methods of analysis of composition and structure, the calculation of absolute and relative indicators of dynamics, average values, comparative analysis, graphical method of analysis, as well as the general theoretical method of analysis of Russian and foreign literary sources. The main research methods are cluster, stochastic and dynamic analysis. The study found application methods for collecting primary economic information, including analysis of legislative and regulatory acts of the Russian Federation, official statistical data, public reporting data of domestic enterprises, analysis of other open sources of information, a systematic approach, statistical and comparative analysis methods. The study examined the works of N.A. Alekseeva, G.A. Barysheva, V.Ivanter, A.Idrisova, S.V. Kaymanakova, N.I. Komkova, E.V. Kondratieva, I.T. Korodina, Kositsina, F.P., Kuvalin D., Kulkova V.M., Mamontova V.D., Nekipolova A., Nikulina OV, Oder D.E., Sapir J., Yuhacheva S.P. , Yantovsky A.A. and others. Results. Adhering to the opinion of well-known economists, we will consider economic growth as a system of interaction and reproduction of the elements and factors of economic growth of the national economy. Economic growth is determined by the factors that determine the pace and scale of the long-term increase in gross domestic product, the possibility of increasing the efficiency and quality of growth. The study made it possible to determine that the main factors affecting economic growth are labor productivity, the size of the average wage, and the amount of investment. In turn, labor productivity is also associated with the cost of technological innovation and the index of ingenuity. One of the qualitative characteristics of economic growth is labor productivity, which contributes not only to an increase in production, but also to an increase in the income level of the population due to an increase in the total consumption of goods and services. Conclusion. The implementation of the principle of faster growth of labor productivity over wage growth should take into account the need to ensure equity in income differentiation, which will stimulate the development of the creative potential of labor resources. To increase labor productivity in enterprises, it is necessary to introduce modern methods of process management, the principles of the organization of lean manufacturing. A systematic approach to solving these problems will make it possible in the coming years to improve the competitiveness of enterprises, and in the long term, it will contribute to a systematic increase in labor productivity and ensure decent economic growth.

45-56 1484
Abstract

In the article the basic methodological aspects and the results of approbation of alternative methods of complex comparative evaluation of reliability level of commercial banks are considered through the example of subjects of the banking sector in the Vologda region. On the one hand, the reliability of a commercial bank is the key criterion of soundness of banking system in general, and on the other, the foundation for a bank formation today and its prosperity in future. Consequently, in the current ambiguous financial conditions characterized by tough competition between credit-financial institutions a question of study and improvement of evaluation methods of the reliability of a commercial bank rises. . Study purpose: The purpose of this study is the introduction of the basic methodological aspects and the results of approbation of alternative methods of complex comparative evaluation of a reliability level of commercial banks through the example of subjects of the banking sector in the Vologda region. Materials and methods: the study was carried out based on building of the mathematical model, consisting of financial indexes, to each of which a relative share was assigned by expertise, and the following rating; multidimensional complex comparative evaluation; cluster allocation. The starting data for these studies was the 30 credit organizations reference book published in the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Results: According to the received results the different approaches to making ratings of credit organizations used by us gave similar outcomes. This fact indicated the high degree of adequateness of the methods. For the objective evaluation we suggested and tested different methodological approaches to making ratings according to such qualitative characteristic of a commercial bank as reliability. In our study we used: the mathematical model consisting of financial indexes to each of which a relative share was assigned by expertise, and the following rating; multidimensional complex comparative evaluation; cluster allocation. That allowed, firstly, doing comparative evaluation of reliability while making rating, secondly, ranging banks by different problem blocks, thirdly, classifying the objects of the study according to their financial characteristics, fourthly, defining the main factors influencing the ranging of banks. The received results of methods approbation are the additional information to the ratings published by the leading rating agencies and the Bank of Russia which allows reasonably making decisions by choosing the best possible reliable credit organization. Conclusion: According to the studies the sizes of a commercial bank not always prove its stability, liquidity and operating efficiency. Analyzing the ratings of credit organizations by an absolute index we came to the conclusion that it was not enough to take into consideration only the volumes of activity of an organization though it is of no small importance. Therefore, in order to receive a realistic rating it is necessary to use different methods which will complement one another and give more definite result of a set task.

SOCIAL STATISTICS

57-64 855
Abstract

In this paper there are results of the bachelor and master theses citing analysis. These students graduated from the Higher mathematics chair of the Russian Technological University in the summer of 2018. In this comparative analysis the dependencies of thesis loan percent on parameters of students, statistical values of their theses are explored. This research is actual because of the progress and development of new informational technologies used in the educational system. Popularity of the text loan detection systems increases. Automatic plagiarism detection systems are intended to make educational process better, the text drawing search easier, to support the copyright laws and academical honesty. The percentage is given by two main Russian plagiarism detection systems: Antiplagiat and Rucontext. Connections between thesis parameters are explored. Advantages of each text loan detection systems are described. In this research there are the results of the pedagogical experiment aimed to analyze statistically the dependencies of the bachelor’s and master’s theses loan percentage which have been got from Antiplagiat and Rucontext systems on the author’s parameters, statistical values describing thesis text. The comparison between statistical results of these systems have been made. The conclusions about their advantages have been presented in the paper. In order to make the comparison methods of the mathematical statistics have been used. Numerical experiment has been provided by means of the packages of the R statistical language. The difference between text loan percentages in the Antiplagiat and Rucontext systems has been analyzed. It has been shown that it grows when length of the text becomes larger. The dependencies of the text loan percentage on the available parameters of the thesis author and text parameters have been presented. The dependencies types are the same for the both systems. Scale of the coefficients in the statistical dependencies is also the same. The difference is in the very set of the parameters: the Rucontext percentage is better described statistically with the sex of the author, the Antiplagiat percentage is described with the type of the higher education (bachelor’s or master’s thesis). Also the dependency of the text loan percentage on the length of the thesis text differs: the Antiplagiat percentage is better described statistically with the number of words but the Rucontext percentage is described with the number of characters. It seems that these differences can be explained with different text search and analyze algorithms. The dependencies between the Rucontext percentage and the Antiplagiat text loan percentage is presented.

65-79 990
Abstract

Purpose of research. To offer theoretical and methodological tools for assessing the contribution of external labour migration to inclusive development.

Methods. The study used methods of statistical, econometric analysis, comparative analysis, graphical method of analysis, as well as General theoretical method of analysis of Russian and foreign literary sources. The main information sources for the study were the data of the official website of the Federal state statistics service, as well as the data of the Unified interdepartmental information and statistical system.

Results. The main results of the study are as follows: – Development of a theoretical two-circuit model of migration flow regulation with an emphasis on attracting qualified personnel to the industry. – Econometric results recorded the feedback of migration with economic growth and indicators of inclusive development – manufacturing, high-tech products and innovative exports in the Russian regions. – Results were also obtained, indicating a weak regulation of migration processes in the Russian regions, the effectiveness of which is fixed at the level of 25% out of 100%. – For the inclusive development of the Russian regions, thresholds were obtained for: attracting qualified personnel to the manufacturing industry up to 32% of the total number of workers in the field, the regulation of migration and economic processes by state institutions should be in the area of responsibility at 75% against 25%, the HDI in the regions should be at the level of 93% of 100%. – Threshold values are allowed to form and to work out the forecast of development for the Sverdlovsk region for the perspective till 2025

Conclusion. In General, according to the study, it was concluded that it is necessary to change the course from attracting low-skilled migrants to qualified ones, to strengthen the role of state institutions to regulate migration processes, as well as to increase the level of human capital in Russia. For further economic development, qualitative changes in human capital, industrial development, diversification of the national economy and the development of the country’s scientific and technological potential are needed.

ICT IN STATISTICS

80-88 790
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The first goal of the study is a comparative analysis of the models of the accounting system of the stock market operating on the territory of the Russia, in particular, the model of the distributed accounting system and the model of the centralized accounting with the use of the central depository are considered. The second goal is to apply the distributed ledger technology in the development of a new model for the stock market accounting system. The goals are conditioned by the growing interest to the technology and similarity of its internal processes with the system of accounting of digital assets. The needs in optimization of the existing accounting system, bringing the system to the logical centralization are revealed. The application of distributed ledger technology for the purpose of unification of depository accounting systems is proposed. The analysis of efficiency of the given models is carried out and the criteria of efficiency estimation of each model are revealed. Materials and methods. For carrying out the research the works of description of register system genesis of stock market in Russia were applied. Works of Russian and foreign researchers in the field of influence of technology of distributed registers on accounting system and business processes of organizations are studied. The methodology for comparing models was the approach to the development of highly specialized evaluation criteria that meet the needs of the largest number of stock market participants. Results. Evaluation criteria were developed, on the basis of which the comparison of the existing models of the accounting system of stock market and the projected model on the distributed ledger technology was carried out. The needs for optimization of the existing accounting system of Russia, bring the system to the logical centralization of interaction of elements are revealed. Suggestions for the use of distributed ledger technology in order to unite the register systems of obligations have been developed The variety of elements of the accounting system of the Russian stock market was determined a large number of indicators used in comparisons of models, as well as a variety of approaches, both to the construction of the indicators themselves and to the collection of data to ensure their calculation and comparison. Conclusion. According to the results of the research it was determined that the decentralized model of the stock market accounting system on the distributed ledger technology in comparison with the classic model reduces the transaction cost of obligation right accounting operations, optimizes the complexity of the processes of interaction between the elements of the system, such as depositories and registrars, increases the transparency of the stock market, the processes of the transition of assets rights, due to which the liquidity of such assets and the increases investors interest. Decentralized model standardizes the of communication data, which has a positive effect on the indicators of information systems of participants. In comparison with the centralized model, the decentralized model eliminates the central depository transaction commission, eliminates monopolization to choose the direction of stock market depository accounting system development. Finally, the positive influence of the decentralized model on the stock market as a whole was revealed. The resulting form of relations will reduce the main cost indicators of the accounting system elements, such as transaction costs, the cost of support and development of information systems, the number of necessary formats for the application of interaction with counterparties.

STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS

89-98 907
Abstract

Purpose of the study. Rasch model is often used in processing test results. However, when using this model and the maximum likelihood method (ML), the estimates the levels of ability of respondents depend only on the number of correctly performed test items and do not depend on the difficulties of the items. The purpose of the research is to analyze the influence of the difficulties of the items on the levels of abilities of the respondents based on the weighted maximum likelihood method (WML). To obtain the weights of the WML, the item total scores are used. Materials and methods. The analysis of the influence of the difficulties of the items on the levels of abilities of the respondents is investigated using the dichotomous table obtained when testing the knowledge of 19 respondents in the course “Fundamentals of Electronics”. Indicator variables of 16 test items were used. For items, we calculate the item total scores that determine their items difficulties. The weighting coefficients of the used WML depend on the item total scores and on the coefficient of influence K. When K = 0, WML convert into ML. As K increases from 0 to 2, the weighting coefficients increase and it becomes possible to analyze in detail the influence of the difficulties of the items on the respondents’ ability levels. To calculate the parameters of the Rasch model based on WML, programs (M-files) for the MATLAB environment and Ministep (Winsteps) are used. Results. The use of WML with weighting coefficient obtained on the basis of the item total scores of the difficulties of the items allowed us to further differentiate the levels of respondents’ abilities in the dichotomous Rasch model. The results of the analysis performed using the data of the test on electronics show that, ceteris paribus, new levels of person’s abilities increase if respondents perform difficult items and, conversely, the respondent’s ability levels decrease if respondents perform light items. At the same time, the difficulty levels of the items practically do not change. As a rule, the greater the coefficient of influence K, the more different the estimation of abilities of respondents, obtained on the basis of WML, from the estimation on the basis of ML. However, there are respondents whose ability level does not change or change slightly when the coefficient K is increased from 0 to 2. For the data of the test on electronics with a coefficient K ≤ 1, the original order of respondents in their ability levels calculated on the basis of ML is preserved. With an increased coefficient of influence K ≥ 1,5, new levels of ability, calculated using WML, cause a change in the order of distribution of respondents according to ability levels. Calculations performed using the MATLAB package are confirmed by data obtained using the Winsteps program. Differences without extreme respondents do not exceed 0.01 logit with the maximum value of the coefficient K equal to 2. Conclusion. On the basis of WML, a method is proposed for taking into account the influence of the difficulties of items on the levels of respondents’ abilities in the Rasch dichotomous model when using the item total scores. The results of the analysis performed using the data of the test on electronics show that in this case we will obtain a differentiation of the levels of abilities of the respondents who score the same points. Note that the results obtained using WML and using the data of the test on electronics do not reject the data obtained on the basis of the classical dichotomous Rasch model and ML. The results obtained on the basis of WML, allow to refine the levels of abilities of the respondents, obtained on the basis of ML.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)