ECONOMIC STATISTICS
The main objective of the study is to identify the peculiarities of inflation trends in the context of large import dependence, as well as finding the ways to solve the problems of inflation and import dependence. In this connection, the article discusses in detail such issues as the specifics of inflation processes in the context of globalization, the interrelation between inflation and the foreign trade factor, the interrelation between inflation and the exchange rate. The peculiarities of inflation trends, as well as the interrelation between inflation and import dependence, are examined on the example of the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan. The theoretical basis of the study was the work of foreign, in particular Russian and native scientists on inflation issues in an open economy, inflationary tendencies in the context of globalization, the interrelation between inflation and integration processes, as well as the problems of import dependence. The statistical data of the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan - www. stat.tj, the data of the website of the National Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan – www.nbt.tj were used as the information base for the years 2003-2016. Results: The positive and negative influence of the foreign trade factor on the level of inflation in the Republic of Tajikistan has been revealed. The positive effect of the foreign trade factor is the following: in conditions of a significant increase in the incomes of the population and a lack of domestic production potential, the import helps to reduce the large inflationary pressure that arises from the growth of domestic aggregate demand. On the other hand, the import becomes a factor that covers the domestic commodity deficit because the domestic production of the republic still cannot fully meet the aggregate demand for consumer goods. The negative impact can be attributed to the following: in the context of large import dependence, the increase in the prices of imported goods leads to the transmission of inflation, and there is also a significant impact of the exchange rate of the national currency (somoni) on the value of imported goods and, accordingly, on inflation. The negative consequences can also be attributed to the fact that the high import competitiveness creates barriers for the development of domestic production and acceleration of the import substitution process. Low import-substituting potential significantly reduces the positive effect of the devaluation of the national currency. To effectively use the policy of depreciation of the national currency in order to stimulate the development of domestic production, it is necessary to create conditions for a mobile reaction of domestic production to the devaluation policy. For this reason, there is a need to find the ways to reduce the growing import dependence of the republic. One way to solve this problem can be the timely use of a significant increase in the incomes of the population as a stimulating demand for accelerating the development of domestic production. The results of the research show that today the presence of large import dependence makes the economy of the Republic of Tajikistan vulnerable to external factors and contributes to the emergence of inflationary trends. Large import dependence increases the risk of transmission of international inflation, creates barriers to the development of domestic production, and reduces the effectiveness of the application of the monetary policy in order to accelerate the importsubstitution process.
The purpose of the study. To prove the methodological error of the calculation of the market (cadastral) value of capital construction objects, as a result of a violation of the Federal law of the Russian Federation of 29.07.1998 No. 135-FZ “On valuation activities in the Russian Federation”, article 3, in determining the market value of the property. To show that the theory and practice of measuring the value of real estate is necessary to delimit the elements of the market value formation of reproducible and not reproducible factors single property. Materials and methods. The objectives of the article are: the rules of law in assessment activities; the results of the cadastral valuation of real estate in settlements of Russia; comparative analysis of the factors determining the market (cadastral) value of real estate. Results. Formulated the axiom about the market (cadastral) cost of the reproducible factors of a single property. It is shown that in the theory and practice of measurement in market (cadastral) value of real estate of Russia violated article 3 of the law 135-FZ of 29.07.1998. As a consequence, the market (cadastral) cost of the capital construction objects 2-5 times overestimated, and the market (cadastral) value of land in the 2-15 times underestimated. This is the basis of corruption, challenging the results of cadastral assessment of problems of formation of budgets of all levels, reduction in the rate of economic development of Russia. According to our results of the cadastral assessment of land plots of various categories of land in the regions of Russia there is a technology of determining the economic norms of rational use of real estate. Conclusion. Regardless of technology assessment of the property market value of reproducible improvements of the land may not exceed their replacement cost.
Purpose of the study. The fuel and energy complex is one of the important components of the mechanism of functioning of the national economy in general and municipal economy in particular, since the main tasks of the complex include: provision of hot water supply all year round and heat during the winter period, meeting the needs of the population and municipal economy in gas, supply of gasoline and diesel fuel to satisfy consumers, as well as the supply of coal, peat, fuel oil and other fuels for the urban economy. An important role is played by enterprises of the fuel and energy complex in terms of providing jobs to the population. The fuel and energy complex of Moscow is one of the largest in Russia. A feature of its functioning is the concentrated consumption of gas, fuel, electricity, heat energy and other energy resources. The formation and development of the fuel and energy complex in Moscow is largely due to the rapidly developing economy of the megapolis – large-scale construction of housing and infrastructure, sustainable population growth entails a constant increase in consumption of fuel and energy resources. Monitoring the efficiency of the use of fuel and energy resources makes it possible to identify ways to reduce the volume of consumption to a level that allows, within the approved limit, to implement the planned rate of social and economic development of the city. Materials and methods. Information base of the research was made by statistical data characterizing the volume of consumption of certain types of fuel and energy resources in the market of the Moscow region. The methodological basis of the study is made up of statistical methods of analysis of structure and structural shifts, dynamics. Their use made it possible to conduct a thorough analysis of the differentiation of consumption of various types of fuel and energy resources, as well as structural changes in the differentiations in question. It made it possible to identify existing trends in the development of the fuel and energy complex in the capital region Results. The analysis allowed to identify the current trends in consumption of the main types of fuel and energy resources in Moscow, to assess the structure and structural changes in consumption of fuel and energy resources in Moscow, in order to assess the energy efficiency of the fuel and energy complex of the capital. Conclusion. The main goal of Moscow’s energy policy is to create an economically efficient, dynamically developing and financially sustainable fuel and energy complex equipped with advanced technologies and highly qualified personnel and meeting the requirements of the time and status of Moscow. Increasing the efficiency of the use of fuel and energy resources, for Moscow as one of the coldest capitals of the world, is becoming one of the priority tasks. Consequently, another task of developing the fuel and energy complex of the city is to expand the scale of the introduction of secondary energy resources and bring the indicator of their use to 50%. That is why, a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics and structure of consumption of fuel and energy resources will allow not only to assess the existing patterns of distribution and trends, but also as a consequence to form a highly effective energy strategy for the megacity.
The article presents an analysis of the development of the system of taxes and fees on natural resources in the Russian Federation from 1991 to 2017. The authors note that within the period under review, the system of natural resource taxation has undergone significant changes related to the political and economic transformational processes in the Russian Federation. The last few years of modernization of the domestic economy have required a review of the attitude towards rental income, nature management and the environment as a whole. The last fact is confirmed by the fact that the current year is declared the year of ecology in our country. The aim of the study is to summarize information on the structural elements of the system of environmental taxes, fees and payments in the Russian Federation. The main focus of the authors’ attention is directed to mechanisms for regulating the consumption of natural resources by both natural and legal persons, as well as the need to restore natural potential after consumption within the framework of financial and production activities of economic entities in the Russian Federation. The main analytical materials of the study were the Russian legal framework and accompanying regulatory by-laws in the field of taxation, official explanations of the relevant authorities, accompanying analytical and statistical materials, publications of scientific and periodicals. In order to increase the objectivity of the conclusions, the following methods were used: the method of scientific abstraction, analysis, synthesis, comparison, modeling, grouping of data. In addition, an analysis of the scientific literature, the legal framework was applied. The result of the study was the identification of two basic categories of payments. Environmental taxes (mineral extraction tax, water tax, land tax, transport tax) and environmental charges (collection for use of wildlife and aquatic biological resources. One-time and regular payments for use and collection for participation in a tender (auction) for the use of subsoil, payment for the use of a water body, payment for the negative impact on the environment, recycling environmental charges, payments of the Citizens-legal nature: the rent for the use of forests, for the use of land). The mechanisms of their collection are presented in details. Based on the results of the study, the authors recommend clarifying and simplifying the mechanisms of legislative regulation of the whole set of natural resources payments and proposing the creation of a transparent and understandable management and control system for the careful exploitation of the ecological potential of the territories of the Russian Federation. An analysis of the current system of taxes and the corresponding system of payments made it possible to conclude that at the legislative level there is no single line on the regulation of nature-resource payments. Such randomness, according to the authors, is difficult to explain, since there is no reason why this or that form of tax, collection, civil-legal payment is not argued anywhere. It is noted that the exact concept of environmental tax is absent in the legislation of the Russian Federation, but this terminological phrase is used unofficially to designate some payment obligations.
DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Despite the numerous achievements and success in various spheres of human activity, the modern civilization, unfortunately, has not yet been able to completely get rid of such a serious and shameful problem as violence against children. Not only in economically backward and developing countries, where numerous forms of infringement of the children’s rights have deep historical roots, but in the vast majority of the most developed countries of the world, violence against children has now acquired massive and catastrophic proportions. If we follow the ancient wisdom, that the maturity of any society emerges fully in terms of the relations that have developed in it with regard to the elderly and children, then a rather simple conclusion is drawn: the earth population has not yet reached the understanding of a number of eternal and simple truths. After all, any violent actions committed against children at present create objective and subjective prerequisites for the further reproduction of such actions in the future, but in relation to even younger generations. In this context, it is quite obvious that there is an urgent need to unite the efforts of the world community, states and individual citizens to stop and actively pursue any violent actions against children not only within the framework of existing legislation, but also in everyday life, where the moral support or condemnation are of great practical importance. In addition, there is an urgent need to develop special international and state projects and programs, aimed at protecting children’s rights and protecting them from any form of physical and spiritual violence. It is difficult to imagine a deep substantive justification of any measures to eliminate violence against children as a negative phenomenon of public life without a comprehensive quantitative description of such a unique object of research, which by definition is impossible without detailed and reliable statistical information. At present, obtaining such information causes great difficulties, which, naturally, creates additional obstacles to the knowledge of the true extent of the spread and consequences of the violence against children. For the above reasons, it is of great scientific and practical interest to improve the methodological foundations of statistical research on violence against children, implying both a clear interpretation of the subject of cognition and the development of a modern system of indicators that allows displaying various aspects of such a complex and negative social phenomenon.
STATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICS
The consumer price index is a key indicator of the inflation level in Russia. It is important for the Central Bank and Government in decision-making process. There is a strong need for high-quality analysis and accurate forecast of this index. Modelling and forecasting of consumer price index as a key indicator of inflation are relevant issues in current macroeconomic conditions. The article is dedicated to development of quality short-term forecast of consumer inflation level, with the impact of seasonal factor. Two classes of models (vector autoregression and time series models) are considered. It was shown that vector autoregression model of the dependency between consumer price index and nominal effective exchange rate is worse for the proposes of inflation forecast then non-linear model with structural components and conventional heteroscedasticity. The practical significance of this work is that the developed approach to the forecasting of the consumer price index adjusted of seasonal factor can be very helpful for the purpose of proper assessment and regulation of inflation.
ACCORDING TO THE RESULTS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE “IX VALENTEY’S READINGS ‘DEMOGRAPHIC EDUCATION AND STUDYING POPULATION AT UNIVERSITIES’”
The purpose of the study: identify the current demographic situation in the Russian Far East over the past quarter century, to assess the effectiveness of those efforts at the federal and local levels, to identify problems and propose the sequence of their decision for the following discussion. Materials and methods. The initiative of the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East to develop a regional concept of the demographic policy, three scientific conferences on demographic development of the region (2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively), approved by the Government Decree the Concept of the Demographic Development of the Far East (from June 20, 2017 № 1298-r), on the one hand, give hope that the demographic catastrophe will be prevented in this part of the country, but on the other hand, there is a fear that the adopted document, a set of follow-up actions will not significantly alter steady demographic trend, as dozens of previous decisions could not do this. Therefore, a further search of non-usual steps for the impact on the demographic potential of the region is necessary. The results. Analysis of population structure by age and sex, their differentiation by territories show: relatively small generation of 90- ies, entering into the fertile age, leads to a decrease in the birth rate, which inevitably effect on the total population. This requires adjusting the choice of priorities of a demographic policy. Typological characteristics of the demographic behavior of the regions of the Federation, formed under the influence of natural and geographical conditions and the way of life of the population, are mandatory in the regional demographic policy. It is not enough to understand the need to improve the quality of life and create attractive conditions for migrants. Peculiarities of territorial organization of economy and population, with the population density (when a person per square km), also significantly affect the formation of social and infrastructure complex. Self-organization processes occur independently from decisions, made in the power structures: shift method of organization of production becomes predominant for the areas with extreme climatic conditions, whereas the South of the Far East could become a foothold for ongoing family life for those who work in the North. Crucial issue of the regional demographic policy is the prospect of economic specialization: it is one thing when the rate is made on resource development and export of raw materials, and the other is industrial development, requiring highly qualified personnel, appropriate infrastructure, development of service industries, etc. Raising the level of migration attractiveness of territory applies to the investments, capital, not only to people. It is important to assess the severity of the demographic problems of the region, the critical state that does not allow you to make a mistake. Conclusion. Announcing Far East a priority for century, creating special conditions for business, population growth should be commensurate with the scale of the projects claimed, moreover, this growth must be faster, which is possible only through migration from the outside. In the coming decade efforts should be focused on the revitalization of the migratory processes, and ensure the growth of the population of the territory.
The aim of the study is to analyze the extent of the presence of migrants and their behavior in the Russian labor market on the basis of largescale sociological surveys of migrants. This is especially important in the absence of reliable statistics on migrants in the labor market. The main attention is paid to the employment profiles of representatives of various socio-demographic and ethnic groups, illegal and informal employment, the intensity and wages of migrants from countries with a visa-free regime with Russia. Particular attention is paid to labor mobility of migrants. The main empirical basis for analysis was the results of sociological polls conducted by the Center for Ethnopolitical and Regional Studies for the Higher School of Economics in 2011. (8,5 thousand respondents) and in 2017 (8,6 thousand migrants in 19 regions of Russia). The study showed that education, qualifications, professional knowledge of migrants are not in demand on the Russian market, the typical path of migrants in the labor market is downward labor mobility – occupying a job that is worse than previously occupied in the homeland. At the same time, migrants are adapted to changes in the labor market, which is largely facilitated by the differentiation of migrant employment and the vertical mobility of some of them. Innovations in Russian legislation which came into force in 2015, as well as the integration process within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEA), which greatly facilitated access to jobs in Russia for citizens of the countries of the EEA, had a positive impact on the Russian labor market. The share of illegally employed migrants has significantly decreased in comparison with previous years. At the same time, the problem of informal employment of foreign citizens, excessive exploitation of migrant labor remains. The problems of combating forced labor of migrants and ensuring their decent labor come to the fore. Civilized conditions should be created for the legalization of labor activity of migrants, stimulating their reorientation to integrate into Russian society. The most serious attention should be paid to preventing the social exclusion of migrants to work in Russia, creating effective tools for their secondary socialization and adaptation to Russian realities.