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Vol 20, No 6 (2023)
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THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGIONS AND REGIONAL STATISTICS

4-12 464
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The socio-economic policy of the state is a purposeful activity for the redistribution of resources in order to achieve the well-being of the population. Its purpose is to solve the socio-economic problems of the population in the field of maintaining a decent standard of living, ensuring employment of the population, regulating labor relations, social protection and development of sectors of the social sphere. The purpose of the study is a statistical analysis of the life quality of the population of the Volga Federal District to assess the effectiveness of the ongoing socio-economic policy.

Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study was the aggregation method, which makes it possible to calculate indicators of advantages: advance, parity and lag behind the Russian average level. The calculation of the integral assessment was carried out without taking into account the weighting coefficients of the life quality components. To assess the life quality of the population, 10 parameters have been identified that affect key areas of social policy: financial situation, labor activity, housing conditions, life safety, public health, education, culture, transport infrastructure, information and communication resources, and the life potential of the population. Each quality of life parameter is characterized by a range of private indexes. The information base of the study is data from the Federal State Statistics Service.

Results. The calculation results confirm the high differentiation of the regions of the Volga Federal District in terms of life quality parameters of the population. Not a single region of the Volga Federal District has been identified with stable behavior of the indicator of advantages. Only two regions of the Volga Federal District have an integral index value greater than one: Nizhny Novgorod region and the Republic of Mari El. For most life quality parameters, these regions are ahead of the Russian average. In other regions of the Volga Federal District, the values of integral indexes are less than one, which indicates a lag behind the Russian average level of various life quality parameters. The region with the lowest integral assessment value is the Republic of Mordovia.

13-25 262
Abstract

Purpose of the study. The paper presents the author’s methodology for selecting competing regions based on their specialization. The formation of a statistical set of competing regions is one of the stages of the methodology for managing the competitiveness of a region. The selection of competing regions precedes the stage of assessing the region’s competitiveness and identifying its competitive advantages. Ignoring the stage of selecting competing regions in the study of regional competitiveness leads to leveling out the differences between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in socio-economic conditions of development and reduces the possibility of making effective management decisions to increase the competitiveness of the country’s regions. The purpose of the paper is to improve the methodology for selecting competing regions based on their specialization.

Materials and methods. In the process of achieving the goal, statistical methods of analysis, factor analysis, cluster analysis, and the main array method were used. Calculations were made in SPSS Statistics and Excel programs. The paper used statistical data from Rosstat. To perform the calculations, GVA was considered in the Russian National Classifier of Types of Economic Activity2 structure for 2020.

Results. The article improves the methodology for selecting competing regions based on their specialization. The method under consideration contains 7 stages. Its difference from the previous methodology is the addition of two stages: extracting factors of GVA shares or localization coefficients by type of economic activity of regions using factor analysis and clustering of regions based on selected factors. To test the methodology, localization coefficients were calculated by type of economic activity of the regions of the Russian Federation for 2020. Their descriptive statistics are presented. A set of competing regions has been formed for the Amur region. The region’s competitors are 11 regions of the country, in which “mining” and “construction” predominate.

Conclusion. Solving the problem of forming a statistical set of competing regions is an important condition for the objectivity and reliability of the results of assessing the competitiveness of regions. The paper shows that the selection of competing regions must be carried out taking into account the specialization of the region, which is an expression of the level of socio-economic development of the region and its specifics. Dividing the totality of the country’s regions into homogeneous groups in accordance with their specialization allows for a qualitative analysis of the competitiveness of the regions within each individual group. The presented technique is universal, because its information base can be both the sectoral structure of the economy of the regions of the Russian Federation and the localization coefficients calculated on its basis, characterizing the specialization of the regions. 

26-34 298
Abstract

Purpose of the study. Statistical research of the socio-economic development issues of the region acquires special significance in crisis situations. Statistical methods make it possible to quantify the current situation, identify the impact of crisis phenomena and forecast the development of the region. In the analysis of socio-economic development, both economic characteristics (GDP, production and distribution) and direct indicators of the standard of living of the population (unemployment level, personal income and wages) are the key ones. The purpose of this paper is to statistically assess the impact of crisis situations on the socio-economic situation in St. Petersburg.

Materials and methods. The information base for the study was official data from the Federal State Statistics Service. The paper uses methods of time series analysis, cluster analysis and analysis of structural changes.

Results. Based on the results of the study, the main periods in the dynamics of the main socio-economic indexes were identified. Special attention is paid to studying the structure of GRP of St. Petersburg. Emphasis is placed on comparing the dynamics of regional indexes with data for the federal district and the Russian Federation as a whole. The features of the city’s development are considered using cluster analysis according to the current range of factors for different time periods. An assessment of the achievement of key planned indexes is given and a comprehensive index is proposed for assessing the development of the dynamics of the socio-economic development of the region. Particular attention is paid to analyzing the impact of crisis situations on the socio-economic status of the region and assessing the degree of their impact.

Conclusion. Based on the results of the analysis, recommendations were given for the development of the region, which can be used in the implementation of socio-economic policy. Particular attention is paid to indexes of living standards. 

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

35-47 236
Abstract

The purpose of the study. Despite the fact that a significant amount of research work has been accumulated on northern and Arctic topics, there is a lack of relevant research on the relationship between investments in fixed assets and economic growth for the northern regions of the Russian Federation. At the same time, northern regions are a special object of management: the specificity of the North breaks the usual ideas and patterns, making standard approaches to managing economic growth unacceptable or less effective. Currently, in the practice of strategic planning of investment activities in the North, there is a formal approach to the development of relevant documents: investment strategies are not always developed for a long-term period, they are generally not updated, the semantic content remains focused on the existing structure of production, the specifics of investment activity are not sufficiently reflected when setting goals regarding the natural and material characteristics of investment flows. The goal of the paper was to obtain quantitative estimates of the impact of capital investments on the economic growth of the northern region, which will allow a more reasonable approach to determining the values of target indexes and establishing the economic effect of planned investments.

Materials and methods. For the northern regions of the Russian Federation, a retrospective analysis of the implementation of the relationship between the level of investment and incremental capital intensity (investment costs per unit of absolute growth in the gross regional product), as well as the level of investment and growth of the gross regional product, was carried out. An analysis of regional panel data from 12 northern regions of the Russian Federation was carried out to determine the influence of resource, investment, and innovation factors on the economic growth of the northern region.

Results. High levels of economic dynamics in the northern region can only be achieved with a larger volume of investment compared to other regions of the country. Thus, an increase in gross regional product above 3% in a northern region is usually observed if the level of investment significantly exceeds the Russian average, i.e. is more than 30%. Based on the results of the panel analysis, estimates of the influence of investment and innovation factors on the economic growth of the northern region were obtained: an increase in the level of investment by 10 percentage points corresponds to an increase in the gross regional product of the northern region by 1.1%, an increase in the share of innovative goods, works, services by 10 percentage points corresponds to an increase in the gross regional product by 1.6%, an increase in the share of gross value added by the section of the AllRussian Classifier of Economic Activities “Extraction of Minerals” in the gross regional product by 10 percentage points corresponds to an increase in gross regional product of 6.7%.

Conclusion. The economic growth of the northern region is significantly influenced by the degree of concentration of the economy on extraction of minerals. The innovative activity of enterprises and increased investment levels have a positive impact on regional economic dynamics. The positive effect that occurs when the level of investment in neighboring regions increases is also important. The presence of “northern value appreciation” continues to be a feature of investment processes in the North.

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

48-58 236
Abstract

The development of the agrarian sector in the conditions of the Northern Nonchernozem belt of Russia (the Nonblack Soil Zone) provides for food security at the level of the regions. Diagnostics of agriculture at a regional level taking into account an investment component allows identifying the vectors of its development with the consideration of the complex of the factors.

The purpose of the research – the working-out and practical approval of the methodology of a multidimensional comparative analysis of the development of agriculture through the example of the territorial subjects of the Northwestern Federal district.

Materials and methods. The research is based on the study of earlier published academic papers of the scientists in the area of the appliance of the statistical methods by the evaluation of the dynamics of the development of the regions and diagnostics of the condition of the agrarian sector. The use of regulatory legal acts of the industry development and data provided by Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service) insured the objectivity of the conducted calculations. The use of the classical statistical methods, including the multidimensional comparative analysis, provided for the systematic approach to the evaluation of the development of agriculture at the regional level.

Results. The developed methodology of a complex comparative evaluation of the regions proposes the multidimensional comparison of indexes characterizing each object submitted in a form of the system of indexes divided into problem sections. As the result of algorithm realization and a calculation ordering specified by the methodology for each region, an integrated index of the complex comparative evaluation of the development of the sector of agriculture was received in comparison with the other regions of the Northwestern Federal District. The received comparative evaluation on problem sections and subsections of indexes and integrated across their whole system serves as a basis for forming-up of ratings of the compared regions for defining their weak and strong points in the development of the studied sector. The methods of the analysis includes norm setting of each index on an aggregate basis of the compared regions, calculation of specific comparative evaluations for each one in a matrix form, creating a midline evaluation table, based on the calculation of the sum of their values throughout the system of analyzed indexes of the condition and development of agriculture for each region. The generalization of the evaluation result is realized by the summation of earlier calculated indexes. An integral estimation of the regions is based on bringing the obtained generalized comparative evaluations to a non-negative form and the percentage expression of their values. The analysis of the specific comparative evaluations of each problem section allows determining the impact of the factor corresponding to this section in creation of the value of an integrated evaluation, therefore estimating the problematic sides of the development of the agricultural sector in comparative evaluation with the situation existing in other regions.

Conclusion. The diagnostics of the development of agriculture based on the suggested methodology allows defining the key factors of the implementation of the development strategy of the sector for making reasonable managerial decisions. 

DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS

59-69 227
Abstract

The purpose of the study is to substantiate the tools for developing regional directions for the development of institutional management mechanisms and adaptation of the population to them based on the strategic priorities of the state. The problem of working out strategic directions for the development of the region is connected with the differences, peculiarities and capabilities of each territory of the country. The adoption of the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation in 2020 “On the national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030” required changing the regional goals and directions of territorial development. The relevance of the study is related to the aggravation of socio-demographic problems that negatively affect the well-being and health of people, labor efficiency and entrepreneurship, and the adaptation of the population to modern threats. Hypothesis – the effectiveness of strategic directions for the development of institutional mechanisms for managing the region and adapting the population to them is proposed to be carried out on the basis of balance sheet structures.

Methods: balance method, index method, structural method, comparative estimates and methodology of official statistics.

Results. The main strategic directions for the development of institutional management mechanisms of the subsidized region have been worked out, which include: preservation of the population, health and well-being of people; accelerated development of the militaryindustrial complex and the agro-food system; creation of a comfortable and safe environment for life, successful entrepreneurship and digital transformation. The theoretical scheme of strategic directions of economic development based on the balance of interests of employees and employers is substantiated. Based on the assessment of the state of the regional economy of the Kurgan region, strategic directions of economic development for the period up to 2030 are substantiated.

Conclusion. The advantage of this approach is the ability to take into account the peculiarities and differences in the functioning of management mechanisms and adaptation to them of the population of the country’s regions. Strategic directions of the region’s development will allow organizing further research to solve the problems of population reproduction, quality of life and sustainability of the functioning of the economy, in the long term to determine the effective and negative factors affecting the living conditions of people. 

METHODOLOGY OF STATISTICS

70-80 228
Abstract

The relevance of the conducted research is determined by the need to control and forecast the costs of enterprises to maintain shutdown nuclear energy facilities in a save condition in order to solve budget planning problems. In the near future, an increase in operating expenses is expected due to an increase in the number of such facilities. To solve the problem econometric forecasting methods are used.

Purpose of the research. This study is aimed to develop a methodology for estimating the costs of maintaining nuclear and radiation hazardous facilities in a safe condition and the safe storage of radioactive waste, considering the specifics of accounting at nuclear industry enterprises and forecasting such costs, taking into account plans for shutting down and decommissioning of facilities and removing accumulated radioactive waste from storage facilities in the future.

Materials and methods. In the research there was developed the methodology of isolation from the overall structure costs, associated with maintaining shutdown facilities and storage facilities for radioactive waste of nuclear industry enterprises. A cumulative estimation of such costs has been carried out for facilities whose operation for the intended purpose has currently been discontinued. Based on obtained retrospective data, a correlation-regression model with structural changes was developed to predict the costs of maintaining nuclear energy facilities in a safe condition which are expected to be shut down in the future. The developed model allows considering the specifics of facilities, their level of radiation hazard and overall characteristics, the average level of wages at enterprises and the cost of resources.

Results. Based on the plans for the shutdown and decommissioning of nuclear energy facilities and the disposal of radioactive waste from storage facilities, the costs of maintaining such facilities in a safe condition with a planning horizon up to 2050 have been forecasted. The results of calculations show that the costs for nuclear energy facilities (except for nuclear power plant units) will increase to 10 billion rubles per year by 2035 (in 2022 prices) and will significantly decrease after 2035 - up to 7.5 billion rubles per year. The reduction will be due to the transfer to a nuclear and radiation safe state of large facilities of radiochemical plants, as well as the conservation of sites for the placement of industrial uranium-graphite reactors. The costs of maintaining the storage facilities of accumulated radioactive waste in a safe condition will be reduced annually (almost linearly) as they are transferred to the disposal of the removed radioactive waste and the conservation of special radioactive waste facilities. By 2035, costs will be reduced from the current level of 5 billion rubles to 4.3 billion rubles per year.

Conclusion. The results of the study confirm the high importance of the implementation of the Federal Target Program “Ensuring Nuclear and Radiation Safety for 2016-2020 and for the period up to 2035”, under which it is planned to decommission about 75 stopped nuclear and radiation hazardous facilities and transfer about 155 thousand cubic meters of radioactive waste to disposal.



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ISSN 2500-3925 (Print)