ECONOMIC STATISTICS
The purpose of the study is to demonstrate the possibility of adequate mathematical modeling of property inequality in a stratified society based on an agent approach, taking into account the unequal (rank) exchange between agents with different socio-economic status. To achieve this goal, it was necessary to solve the following tasks:
1. To develop minimum criteria for the adequacy of mathematical models of socio-economic inequality.
2. To substantiate the advantages of mathematical models based on an agent approach using rank exchange.
3. To present the author’s version of the mathematical model of the goods’ movement in society based on an agent approach, taking into account rank exchange.
4. To check the author’s mathematical model for compliance with the minimum qualitative criteria of adequacy and to create a quantitatively coinciding with the real distribution of the country’s population of the Russian Federation by income.
5. Determine the limitations of the developed mathematical model by the authors.
Materials and methods. The paper used statistical data from Rosstat, the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, the World Bank, the US Bureau of the Census, the Edelman Trust Barometer, as well as data published by domestic and foreign researchers of inequality. These data were compared with the results of inequality calculations obtained using the mathematical model of the goods’ movement in society based on an agent approach, taking into account rank (nonequivalent) exchange.
Results. The minimum criteria that any adequate model of stratification of society must meet are defined: 1. reveals a lognormal distribution of the population by income with a heavy tail; 2. reflects in long-term historical retrospect the trend of inequality growth; 3. demonstrates a short-term reduction of inequality during periods of socio-economic crises.
The proposed model meets these requirements, it demonstrates not only qualitative, but also quantitative adequacy – reproduces by calculation the curve of the actual distribution of Russian society by income.
Common concepts of inequality, in particular, the theory of superstars or skill-based technological change do not allow achieving such a result. The limitations of the created mathematical model are shown:
– the impossibility of creating an adequate Lorentz curve with insufficient computing power;
– inability to describe changes in cross-country inequality, since countries are not subjects of rank exchange, although interstate agreements certainly have an impact on the exchange between economic subjects of social interaction;
– inability to describe situations of absolute poverty, i.e. long-term decline in income, although in the real economy such situations are sometimes observed;
– the endless growth of inequality over time, whereas in reality economic processes of inequality growth are always opposed by social processes of counteraction to this growth.
Conclusion. The mechanism of spontaneous emergence and growth of income (property) inequality as an inevitable consequence of market relations is demonstrated.
The agent-based approach, taking into account the rank exchange, can allow identifying critical moments in time, after which extraordinary economic and socio-political consequences will have an irreversible character, and can also help in studying the influence of individual behavior of economic agents of different levels on the evolution of the entire economic, and as a consequence, socio-political system.
The results obtained will be useful for strategic planning, when developing target indexes for the socio-economic development of regions and the country as a whole, and improving the methodology for calculating key performance indexes for civil servants
Competitive functioning at the micro and macro levels of businesses in different industries creates the need to make changes in the assessment of the impact on the performance of companies of tangible and intangible assets, leading to an increase in the value of both products and companies. In this context, it is appropriate to measure and evaluate intellectual capital, which includes not only goodwill, shares and intellectual property, but also organizational aspects (strategy, database, network data), and relationships with customers, partners, etc. Scientists and economists have studied the issues of defining and measuring intellectual capital for more than 30 years, however, there is no unified approach yet.
This study presents the results of the analysis of approaches to the definition of the concept of “intellectual capital”, its components and methods of calculating the indexes of intellectual capital of organizations.
The purpose of the study is to determine the direction of development of research concerning the calculation of indexes of intellectual capital on the value of organizations and indexes reflecting the state of individual elements and subelements of intellectual capital.
Empirical base and research methods. The issues of measuring intellectual capital are reflected in the works of Edvinsson (1997), Sweibi (2010), assessing its impact on the value of companies and the effectiveness of their activities operating in the developed countries - Zegala (2010), Clark (2011), Liu (2017) - and developing countries - Garanina (2010), Bayburina, Bykova (2012), Andreeva (2016) [1, 5] and other scientists. The works of these researchers formed the basis of the research conducted in this article. This study used general scientific methods such as comparison, deduction, induction and analysis.
Results. The paper presents the results of the analysis and systematization of approaches to the definition of “intellectual capital” and its components, methods for calculating its indexes and assessing their impact on the financial results of companies. Currently, there is also a need for research to assess the mutual influence of individual elements of intellectual capital. In order to identify the industry specifics of the impact of intellectual capital components on the value of organizations, the methods given in the article should be tested separately using data from companies from different industries. When conducting an analysis, it is important to take into account factors related to the external environment of the company, such as the level of economic development of the country in which the company operates, as well as fluctuations in economic activity.
Conclusion. The practical value of the paper lies in the possibility of applying its results in the process of making managerial decisions of organizations in various fields. The proposed options for identifying and calculating indexes can significantly affect the financial growth of organizations, complementing traditional approaches to maintaining and compiling accounting and financial statements, thereby expanding their overall strategic development.
SOCIAL STATISTICS
The background information that forms the expectations of economic entities is a significant factor that determines their behavior.
The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the relationship of inflation, perception and expectation of inflation by households with the parameters of the information (news’) background on the example of the Russian Federation.
The materials for processing as a Russian information background were news’ reports issued by leading Russian TV channels and duplicated on the relevant sites, as well as Internet search (the number of news and search queries, the length of the headlines of the text versions of news, the frequency of mentioning certain topics in them, the tonality of texts), GoogleTrends data on internetrequests. The tonality of the texts was evaluated using automatic analyzers EurikaEngine and Repustate. Data from the reports of the Public Opinion Fund for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation posted on its website are also used; these reports contain monthly data on actual inflation (consumer price index) for 12 months and the results of respondents’ surveys on the perception of inflation, inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, assessments of economic and personal prospects, changes in behavior (starting a job search, making large purchases, etc.) and a wide range of other characteristics of public sentiment related to inflation. To process the collected data, correlation and regression analysis was used, as well as specific methods: Granger causality, principal component methods and lasso regression. As a result of the analysis, statistically significant correlations are found, which may be associated with individual reactions to the topics covered, expressed in changes in mood and behavior.
Thus, inflation is negatively correlated with the number of political news on the “Russia” channel and with the length of headlines of text versions of political news of the “Pervy” channel, and positively correlated with web-search queries on the topic “Inflation”. Including these variables in a regression that estimates inflation based on lagged values significantly improves the quality of the regression, although their impact is small in terms of absolute values. We analyze how these relations change after the shift in the exchange rate regime and the introduction of inflation targeting. We find that in the period preceding to the shift, web-search demonstrated statistical significance in the equations we evaluate, and political news did not, while in the subsequent period, the opposite was true. We observe a connection between the parameters under consideration with certain aspects of individual behavior, such as the search for a better-paid job, or doing business. Finally, we find imperfections in the information activity of the Central Bank: an increase in the frequency of its mention in the news reduces people’s confidence that the inflation target can be achieved.
In conclusion, the authors come to the following fundamental conclusions: the parameters of the information environment may be suitable for operational estimates of inflation, the effect of inflation targeting (i.e. greater controllability of inflationary processes by Central Bank) increases the importance of political news in decisions made by individuals, information policy and the overall image of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation requires improvement.
Purpose of the study. The process of qualitative transformation of the economy under the influence of information and communication technologies is called digital transformation. The change of the economic paradigm in the technocratic context raises the question of whether the existing statistical methodology can still be applied objectively and effectively to the study of the subject area in the new conditions. The purpose of the article is to assess the relevance of statistics in the field of information and communication technologies as an information source for analyzing the digital transformation of the economy, taking into account its industry specifics.
Materials and methods. To clarify the depth of this problem, there seems to be no better way than to carry out an analysis using statistical data collected and published by the Federal State Statistics Service. As statistical tools, descriptive statistics indexes are used to describe particular indicators, one of the methods of multivariate statistical analysis for obtaining a classification according to a number of characteristics (cluster hierarchical analysis) and, finally, a method for calculating an integral index that can rank the units of the analyzed population formed according to the type of economic activities (18 units), simultaneously for all of its constituent indicators.
Results. The system of statistical indexes formed during the analysis included four thematic groups of indexes: a) IT infrastructure and access to it; b) the level and direction of use of IT services; c) availability and qualifications of IT specialists; d) information security. The calculation of descriptive statistics showed that all groups (with the exception of indexes of the presence and qualifications of IT specialists) are homogeneous; comparison of the values of the arithmetic mean and the median does not make it possible to declare any significant asymmetry in their distribution. Cluster hierarchical analysis was carried out by the Ward method using the Minkowski metric, which made it possible to obtain two approximately equal in size industry clusters and one mono-cluster, consisting of a type of activity in the field of information and communication. The resulting grouping, however, could not definite answer the question of the priority of some industries over others in the digital transformation of their constituent organizations. To solve this problem, an integral index was developed, which included the most significant indexes of each of the groups (selected by experts). As a result of calculating the values of this integral index based on the arithmetic weighted average, a ranked series was obtained, transformed into a typological grouping, the leader of which is activity in the field of information and communication, the outsider is agriculture. An analysis of this grouping made it possible to draw a very curious conclusion: in general, in the analyzed set of types of economic activity, there is a clear trend or dependence - the closer the industry is to the sphere of material production, the lower its inherent value of the integral index of digital transformation.
Conclusion. The analysis carried out convincingly showed the significant possibilities of information and communication technology statistics as an information source for analyzing the process of digital transformation of the economy in the sectoral context. At the same time, the dynamism of the analyzed subject area determines the prerequisites for revising the system of statistical indexes in order to update it and increase the efficiency of publishing the results of surveys in the field of information and communication technologies
The available methods for calculating the age level of consumption focus on determining the level of consumption by children. At the same time, previous studies show a decrease in the level of consumption after retirement. From a research point of view, it is of practical interest to estimate the distortion of one-year age profile of consumption depending on the age difference between the adult members of the household. Among common episodic households, the paper compares the age profiles of consumption for households with two adults aged 18 to 80 years. The paper compares indexes of average per capita consumption, and estimates the level of age difference in households for the age level of consumption. The author introduces such a concept as “net consumption”, under the influence of which sensitivity to age is absorbed. To create “net consumption” in the general chronology, only households with a minimum age difference are examined.
The purpose of the study. Estimation of the age level of consumption depending on the demographic characteristics of the household is little studied in modern literature. As a rule, the papers provide methods for assessing the level of children consumption. However, when creating age profiles of consumption, the age characteristics of households are not taken into account. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of the difference in the age of people living together in a household on the age profiles of consumption. Both in Russia and in the EU countries, the average difference in age between the first marriage is on average 2.5 years, and the largest difference can reach more than 30 years. From a statistical point of view, it is of practical interest to study the average per capita age level of consumption depending on the difference in the age of a married couple.
Materials and methods. The source of data for the study is the Household Budget Survey (HBS) conducted by Rosstat for 2020. The paper compares age profiles of consumption created by the minimum age of the household, by the maximum, by the average, and by the classical method. In addition, the paper compares the age profiles created by the classical method, taking into account the limitation of the age difference between household members.
Results. The results obtained from the 2020 HBS survey allow conclusions to be drawn about different age profiles depending on the proposed calculation methods. The results of the study showed that among households consisting of two people, almost a third of households (34.1%) have an age difference of more than 5 years. In the context of calculating one-year age profiles of consumption, a significant age difference in age will lead to a distortion of age profiles of consumption. Among households consisting of two people, the largest difference in the level of average per capita consumption between all households of two people and households of two people with an age difference of no more than 1 year is observed in early working ages (from 18 to 22 years). The introduced restrictions reduce the level of consumption by about a third at the age of 18-19 years. The introduced restrictions increase the average per capita level of consumption in the age group of 22-45 years by an average of 9.4% compared to classical calculations. The opposite situation is observed in the age group of 70-80 years old: the introduced restrictions reduce the average per capita level of consumption by 2.9%.
Conclusion. The paper draws attention to the different results of the calculation of age consumption, depending on the methodological features. The author introduces the term “net age consumption”, which is calculated for households with an age difference between household members of no more than 1 year. Suggestions for estimating per capita consumption can be applied to model human consumption over the life cycle. At the same time, as a rule, the characteristics of households are far from the “model” consumption, which necessitates further study of the factors affecting the level of consumption depending on the characteristics of the household.