Analysis of the Impact of Energy Consumption on the Economic Growth in Foreign Countries

Purpose of study. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the long-term relationship between energy consumption and economic growth (per capita) in foreign countries using statistical methods. The identification of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth provides an indication of a group of countries that are able to reduce energy consumption in the long term, and thus improve energy efficiency.

Research methods. The research methodology consists of the Shapiro-Wilk test for normal distribution, a Box-Koch method for normalization of data and multiple regression analysis. The research database is formed by statistical data of international organizations: Energy Institute, World Bank, World Steel Association, FAO for the period 2000-2019. The transformation of data using the Box-Koch method allowed to increase the number of observations and conduct regression analysis based on normalized data in countries from different regions of the world: South and Central America, Middle East, Europe, CIS, Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia. Based on regression analysis, a model of the multiple regression relationship between energy consumption, steel, agricultural crops and economic growth was constructed.

Results. The result of the study is a multidirectional impact of energy consumption on maintaining the economic growth. The type of economic system is a possible reason for the different nature of the impact on domestic energy consumption. Most of the estimates show a lack of impact between indexes and refer to countries with a significant share of services in GDP. In the overseas agrarianindustrial and industrial countries, which are predominantly located in Asia, North-East Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, there is a positive relationship. For some service-oriented countries in Europe, an inverse relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been observed. Thus, they demonstrate the ability to reduce energy consumption and maintain economic growth by improving the energy efficiency of their economies.

Conclusion. A shift in the structure of countries’ economic output to services may contribute to making the economies of these countries less dependent on the volatility of energy supplies. The transition to a service-based economy may contribute to an increase in the energy intensity of GDP. However, there are other factors influencing energy consumption, presumably institutional and scientific-technical, which determine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. 

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