INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: FORECAST ERRORS, UNCERTANTIES AND RISKS
https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2014-2-99-104
Abstract
Due to capital intensiveness of infrastructure projects, public budget defi cits, and lack of private funds available it’s highly important to evaluate the future capitalcosts and return of infrastructure projectsaccurately to increase provision of economy with infrastructure assets.The article considers typical errors inforecasting return of infrastructure projectsand capital expenditures to develop it, riskclassification and measures to mitigate it.
About the Author
Alexander E. Lantsov
Moscow State University of Economics, Statisticsand Informatics (MESI)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Paving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure. World Economic Forum. - 2010
2. Flyvbjerg B. Policy and planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures. - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3781. - December 2005
3. Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003
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5. Odeck J. “Cost Overruns in Road construction - What Are their Sizes and Determinants?” // Transport Policy. 11 (1):43-53. - 2004
6. Bain R., Wilkins M. The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities, Standard & Poor’s. London. - 2002
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8. Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue. NCHRP Synthesis 364. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. - 2006
9. Bain R., Toll Roads: Big Trouble Down Under // Infrastructure Journal, London - 17 January 2013
10. Prud’homme, Remy. Infrastructure and development. Washington D.C. - The Worldbank. - 2004
11. Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, Eric J.E. Molin, Bent van Wee. Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. // European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research - Issue 10 (1) - March 2010
12. Склонность людей и организаций недооценивать количество временинеобходимоеимдлявыполнения определенного задания, даже если они уже выполняли похожие задания. Термин впервые был предложенв 1979 году вработе Даниэля Канемана и Амоса Тверски
13. Предрасположенностьлюдей недооцениватьвозможностьнаступления негативного события и переоцениватьвозможностьнаступления благоприятного события
14. Систематические ошибки в мышлении или шаблонные отклонения в суждениях, которые происходят в определённых ситуациях. Существованиебольшинстваизэтих когнитивныхискаженийбылоописаноучёными, амногиебылидоказаны в психологических экспериментах
15. Disincentivising overbidding for toll road concessions. Australian Government. Departement of Infrastructure and Transport. - 2012
16. Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. - Cambridge, UK: Cambrige University Press. - 2002
17. Подобноесоотношениесобственных средств (или большее) показало на практике свою эффективность в повышении уровня ответственности - Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003
18. Paving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure. World Economic Forum. - 2010
19. Flyvbjerg B. Policy and planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures. - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3781. - December 2005
20. Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003
21. Pickrell D. Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecasts Versus Actual Ridership and Cost. Washington, D.C.. Department of Transportation. - 1990
22. Odeck J. “Cost Overruns in Road construction - What Are their Sizes and Determinants?” // Transport Policy. 11 (1):43-53. - 2004
23. Bain R., Wilkins M. The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities, Standard & Poor’s. London. - 2002
24. Bain R. Error and Optimism Bias in Toll Road Traffic Forecasts. // Transportation №36 (5), p. 469-482. - 2009
25. Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue. NCHRP Synthesis 364. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. - 2006
26. Bain R., Toll Roads: Big Trouble Down Under // Infrastructure Journal, London - 17 January 2013
27. Prud’homme, Remy. Infrastructure and development. Washington D.C. - The Worldbank. - 2004
28. Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, Eric J.E. Molin, Bent van Wee. Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. // European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research - Issue 10 (1) - March 2010
29. The planning fallacy is a tendency for people and organizations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have experience of similar tasks overrunning. The term was first proposed in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
30. The optimism bias is a bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others
31. A cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in judgment that occurs in particular situations
32. Disincentivising overbidding for toll road concessions. Australian Government. Departement of Infrastructure and Transport. - 2012
33. Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. - Cambridge, UK: Cambrige University Press. - 2002
34. Such a ratio showed high effectiveness in practice to improve accountability - Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003
Review
For citations:
Lantsov A.E. INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: FORECAST ERRORS, UNCERTANTIES AND RISKS. Statistics and Economics. 2014;(2):99-104. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2014-2-99-104
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