Reproductive Potential of Youth in Russian Regions: Factors of Formation and Spatial Differentiation

Purpose of research. The article presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of reproductive potential in the Russian Federation, including the dynamics of demographic indexes and the identification of key socio-economic factors affecting the birth rate at the regional level.

Materials and methods. The presented study used a set of methods. The analysis of the birth rate dynamics based on Rosstat statistical data was carried out for the period 1990–2023. Correlation and regression analysis was conducted to identify the determinants of regional differentiation in reproductive indexes. The age-specific fertility rate in the 18–34 age group was used as the resulting index. The list of independent variables includes 18 socio-economic, demographic, and infrastructure indexes. The clustering procedure allowed us to identify groups of regions with similar reproductive potential. The Sh. Almon method was used to analyze lag effects.

The study results confirm a steady downward trend in reproductive potential in the Russian Federation. The number of young people aged 18–34 has decreased from 38.5 million in 1990 to 28.9 million in 2023, and the total fertility rate has returned to the low level of 1999 (8.7‰) and reached a critically low level. The analysis of age-specific fertility rates shows a significant shift towards older ages for childbearing. By 2023, the total fertility rate had decreased to 1.41, remaining significantly below the level required for simple population reproduction.

The results of the regression analysis for the most numerous cluster of regions showed that 72% of the variation in the age-specific birth rate is explained by four factors: the number of university students, the availability of housing per person, the coverage of neonatal screening, and the volume of housing construction. At the same time, the distributed lag model revealed that the impact of these factors occurs with a delay of 2-3 years.

Results . The reproductive potential of Russian youth is under double pressure: a structural reduction in the size of the cohort and a transformation of reproductive behavior towards later and smaller families. The key constraints are the focus on higher education and career, as well as the parameters of housing security, which act as indexes of urbanization and the specific age structure of the region. Demographic policy measures aimed at increasing the birth rate should consider the identified lag effects and regional heterogeneity, shifting the focus from direct incentives to creating conditions for combining professional and family development at a young age. This ultimately requires a transition to targeted and scientifically based regional strategies.

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