Statistical Assessment of Profit Formation Factors in Retail Chains

Research purpose: conducting a statistical assessment of the key profit formation factors in retail chains using the example of PJSC “Magnit” and methods of multivariate statistical analysis. The study aims to identify and quantitatively measure the impact of the main determinants of the company’s financial performance.

Materials and methods. The empirical base of the study consisted of financial reporting data from 26 subsidiaries of PJSC “Magnit” for 2024. A set of econometric methods was applied for data processing: principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the initial set of 12 financial indexes and eliminate multicollinearity; multiple regression analysis to assess the influence of the identified factors on net profit; and hierarchical clustering to group subsidiaries by similarity of their financial profiles.

Results. Using the principal component analysis, key factors influencing profit formation were identified, among which the dominant role is played by the results of production and sales activities. The principal component analysis allowed for the identification of two key integral factors, explaining 87,6% of the total variance: f₁ – “Production and sales results” (explained variance 71,5%) and f₂ – “Interest payments” (16,1%). The constructed regression model showed a statistically significant positive influence of factor f₁ on net profit and a significant negative influence of commercial expenses. The influence of factor f₂ was found to be insignificant. Cluster analysis revealed two distinct groups of subsidiaries: a homogeneous cluster of infrastructure companies (4 units) demonstrating high operational efficiency, and a heterogeneous cluster of diversified companies (16 units).

Conclusion. It was established that the main driver of profit for PJSC “Magnit” is the efficiency of operational (production and sales) activities, while the management of interest payments does not have a direct significant impact. The identified cluster structure confirms the necessity of a differentiated approach to managing the subsidiaries. The research results can be used to develop strategies for cost optimization and enhancing the financial sustainability of retail chains.

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