Statistical Study of Indexes and Factors of Insurance Development in Russia

The purpose of the study is to establish and describe the trends in the development of insurance in Russia as a type of market activity, redistributive financial relationships and phenomena of social life in inseparable connection with the most important parameters of economic and social development. The most important segment of the market economy is subject to statistical research, which unites specific institutional units that are market producers of financial services of a redistributive nature, namely, the entire set of insurance organizations operating in the economic territory of the Russian Federation and considered as resident units according to the methodology of the system of national accounts. The study was conducted to identify and quantify the impact of socio-economic factors such as the standard of living of the population, housing construction, and road traffic conditions on the cost results of the Russian insurance sector, and to establish patterns and correlations of these features over a long period of time.

Data and methods. To achieve this goal, a set of tasks related to the use of mathematical and probabilistic tools has been solved, which has become an integral part of the statistical methodology for processing numerical arrays to study mass phenomena occurring in society. Methods of analytical alignment, trend forecasting, regression of dynamic series, visual representation of systematized data, namely graphical and tabular, applied software applications of statistical analysis have been applied directly to study the results of insurance organizations.

Decisions and results. The processing of numerical information generated into an array of source data led to the construction of a dynamic regression model reflecting the patterns of formation of the financial result of insurance organizations, predetermined by the level of income of the population, insurance payments, housing construction, and road transport discipline. The forecast values of the risk factors were calculated, which made it possible to predict the index of insurance premiums for the entire set of insurance organizations for the period up to 2026.

Conclusion. Based on the results of statistical modeling, an economic interpretation of the parameters of the constructed models and the relative values describing the elasticity of the relationships was carried out. The directions of relations have been established, and their modern particularity has been substantiated. The results obtained can be used by government statistical agencies and experts in monitoring financial and insurance markets in the Russian economic space.

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