Assessment of the Coefficient of Tension in the Labor Market. Regional Aspect

.Assessing the situation in the labor market of the region, and ultimately forecasting the level of employment and unemployment, is a complex multidimensional  mathematical  problem  that  does not have a reliable and proven solution to date. Research in the direction of creating evaluation methods and forecasting the situation on the labor market is an actual task. The subject of the work is an assessment of the situation on the labor market of the Volga Federal District, through the analysis and modeling of the coefficient of tension in the labor market. The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology that allows making a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District. The information base of the study was the results of a sample survey of the labor force conducted by state statistics bodies in accordance with the classifier of objects of administrative-territorial division (OKATO – Russian Classification on Objects of  Administrative  Division).  To  date, the length of the time series is four time periods (2018–2021) of the year. As methods of analysis and modeling, methods of descriptive statistics were used, as well as mathematical modeling of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market and the rating index of the socio-economic situation of the Volga Federal District. It is shown that the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the  labor  market  as  a  whole  for  all  subjects  of the Russian Federation is extremely heterogeneous, which makes it difficult to model processes in the labor market. At the same time, the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the labor market of the regions of the Volga Federal District is quite homogeneous, which makes it possible to carry out simulations using such an integral index as the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District. In the process of modeling in the environment of the SPSS computer program, a nonlinear regression model of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market (dependent variable) and the place in the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District (explanatory variable) was formed. The model allows you to make a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District.

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