Dynamics of the Russian Pension System: Opportunities and Limitations (Methods of Processing and Analyzing the Development of the Pension System)

The relevance of the article is due to the need for radical changes in the Russian pension system, its adaptation to modern requirements of the economy, social conditions and individual needs of people, which became even more obvious in the era of the global economic crisis.

The purpose of the research is to conduct a statistical study of the structure of pensioners and pension provision in Russia and to develop further opportunities for the dynamics of the pension system and systematize scientific and methodological approaches to using statistical methods to assess the state and development trends of thepension system in Russia. Such an analysis will allow forming a scientific and theoretical basis for making management decisions in the field of social policy.

Materials and methods. The article used statistical methods and techniques for studying the development of the pension system as an information-supported element in making managerial decisions about the need and directions for its reform. The calculations were carried out using official statistics.

Results. The analysis of the structure of pensioners and pensions carried out in the section showed an increase in the share of old-age pensioners and the number of pensioners receiving social supplements, with most of the burden falls on the federal budget, since the proportion of pensioners receiving federal supplements is growing. The article focuses on the need to attract statistical tools for in-depth and scientifically grounded study of the entire complexity and versatility of economic phenomena and processes inherent in the state pension system. Based on the results of the studies carried out, the main problems have been systematized: the uneven distribution by age of the population of Russia, and this unevenness increases over time; a decrease in the share of the working-age population since 2002, an increase in the aging rate and average age, changes in the median and modal intervals. It is substantiated that the identified trends predetermine the need to reform the pension system, taking into account the aging of the population, in view of the forecast of the dynamics of the indicators presented in the article.

The following limitations of the development of the pension system are identified in the work: a decrease in indicative poverty indicators in the country, a decrease in economic inequality as a result of differentiation of incomes of working and non-working population, reduction and compensation of the impact of economic and demographic risks inherent in any society. An analysis of the reform of the Russian pension system led to the conclusion that initially it was mainly aimed at improving its financial balance and modifying the parameters of the existing system.

Conclusion. The trends in the aging of the population, economic and family changes, as well as their impact on the economy and the labor market, shown in the article make us reconsider the paradigm of the existing pension system. The results obtained indicate the need to increase the funding of the pension system.

pension provision, reform, social policy, structural changes, pensioners, social benefits

1. Pasynkov A.F. Financial support of the pension system of Russia in the categories of the system of national accounts. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of the region. 2018; 4: 1356-1369. (In Russ.)

2. Danilova N.L., Kuvshinova Ye.V. The main problems of the system of state pension insurance in the Russian Federation and the directions of its improvement. Vestnik NGUEU = Vestnik NSUEU. 2017; 3: 205-220. (In Russ.)

3. Balashev N.B., Konivets A.D. Problems of functioning of the RF pension fund. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika = Economy and business: theory and practice. 2019; 5(2): 9-13. (In Russ.)

4. Kriulin V.A., Boserdt N.Yu., Khalina V.A. Assessment of the level of sufficiency of financial support of the RF pension fund [Internet]. Politika, ekonomika i innovatsii = Politics, Economics and Innovation. 2018; 1(18). Available from: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/otsenka-urovnyadostatochnosti-finansovogo-obespecheniyapensionnogo-fonda-rf (cited 15.05.2020) (In Russ.)

5. Pitilyak D.A., Dranenko L.P., Bazil' T.V., Chernyayeva M.A. Assessment and application of unused reserves for stabilization of the pension system. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo = Economics. Taxes. Right. 2019; 3: 103-115. (In Russ.)

6. Semeko G.V. The aging of the population in Russia and its consequences [Internet]. ESPR = ESPR. 2013; 2. Available from: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/starenie-naseleniya-v-rossii-i-egoposledstviya(cited 16.05.2020). (In Russ.)

7. Ofitsial'nyy sayt Federal'noy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki RF = Official site of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation [Internet]. Available from: www.gks. ru.(In Russ.)

8. Ivanov S.F. Pension reform-2019: determinants, consequences, alternatives [Internet]. Demograficheskoye obozreniye = Demographic review. 2019: 2. Available from: https:// cyberleninka.ru/article/n/pensionnaya-reforma-2019-determinanty-posledstviya-alternativy (cited 20.05.2020). (In Russ.)

9. Morozov S.A. Balance of the budget of the pension fund of the Russian Federation, problems of functioning. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika = Economy and business: theory and practice. 2019; 2: 93-100. (In Russ.)

10. Andriyanov V.P. Accumulative pension system built into the modern speculative stock market as a tool to destabilize the economy (on the example of the Russian Federation). Daydzhestfinansy = Digest Finance. 2013; 1: 10-20. (In Russ.)

11. Kuklin A.A., Shipitsyna S.Ye. From theory to practice of actuarial assessment of pension risks in Russia. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of the region. 2017; 3: 716-731. (In Russ.)

12. Kryuchkova P.V., Provkov K.S., Reshetnikov M.G. Possibilities of using administrative data for the formation of labor market statistics: the example of Moscow. Voprosy gosudarstvennogo i munitsipal'nogo upravleniya = Questions of state and municipal management. 2018; 2: 7-29. (In Russ.)

13. Zaynullina M.R., Davletshina L.M. Economic analysis of the level of income of the population in Russia. VEPS = VEPS. 2018; 3: 14-16. (In Russ.)

14. Sazonova V.S., Titova O.V., Kozlova Ye.I. Dynamic and structural analysis of indicators of monetary incomes of the population of Russia. Innovatsionnaya ekonomika: perspektivy razvitiya i sovershenstvovaniya = Innovative economy: prospects for development and improvement. 2018; 1(27): 141-147. (In Russ.)

15. Senokosova O.V. Modeling the dynamics of the share of the working-age population in the Saratov region. Izvestiya Saratovskogo universiteta Novaya seriya. Seriya: Ekonomika. Upravleniye. Pravo = Izvestia of the Saratov University New series. Series: Economics. Control. Right. 2018; 3: 275-280(In Russ.)

16. Leshchenko Ya.A. Structural changes in the demographic potential of Siberia: main trends and consequences. Izvestiya BGU = Izvestiya BSU. 2012; 5: 137-142. (In Russ.)

17. Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A., Yegorova Ye.A., Kuchmayeva O.V. et al. Metodologicheskiye voprosy ekonomiko-statisticheskogo analiza sotsial'no-demograficheskikh grupp naseleniya= Methodological issues of economic and statistical analysis of socio-demographic groups of the population. Moscow: Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics and Informatics; 2010. 342 p. (In Russ.)

18. Epshteyn N.D., Yegorova Ye.A., Karmanov M.V., Smelov P.A. Metodologiya analiza demograficheskoy bezopasnosti i migratsii naseleniya = Methodology for analyzing demographic security and population migration. Moscow: Finance and Statistics; 2013. 168 p. (In Russ.)

19. Kalashnikov P.V. A dynamic model for assessing the balance and managing the parameters of the solidarity-distributive pension system in the long run. Cloud of science = Cloud of science. 2019; 3: 387-400. (In Russ.)

20. Belekhova G.V., Rossoshanskiy A.I. Assessment of the Factors of Financial Behavior of the Population: Experience of Using Regression Analysis Based on Panel Data. Ekonomicheskiye i sotsial'nyye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz = Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast. 2018; 5: 198-213. (In Russ.)

21. Terent'yeva I.V. Evaluation of the effectiveness of pay-as-you-go and accumulative models of pension provision in Russia. Gosudarstvennoye upravleniye. Elektronnyy vestnik = Public Administration. Electronic bulletin. 2018; 70: 62-83. (In Russ.)

22. Podkolzina I.M., Dregnin O.Ye. Features of the development of the pension system in the Russian Federation. Problemy ekonomiki i yuridicheskoy praktiki = Problems of Economics and Legal Practice. 2018; 4: 72-77. (In Russ.)

23. Alekhin E.V., Yashin A.V. Demographic forecast for the Penza region, taking into account the pension reform. Teoriya i praktika obshchestvennogo razvitiya = Theory and practice of social development. 2018; 7: 30-35. (In Russ.)

24. Stanovaya A.A. Analysis of demographic processes in Russia. E-Scio = E-Scio. 2020; 1(40): 125-139. (In Russ.)

25. Strakhov A.A., SlesarevaE.A., Zadokhina N.V. Processing the results of statistical observation by means of a spreadsheet processor. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta MVD Rossii = Bulletin of the Moscow University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2018; 6: 305-308. (In Russ.)