Scenario Forecasts of Population Dynamics in Some Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose. In Sub-Saharan Africa, UN demographers expect the population to nearly double over the next 30 years (2020–2050), increasing by more than 1 billion people. Demographic changes of such speed and scale will undoubtedly have global implications. The purpose of the work is to calculate a number of scenarios of the demographic future for some countries of the region, taking into account specific features and events of African recent demographic history (in contrast to the UN forecasts). We also aim to assess the difference between various scenarios for each country and the attainability of the “optimistic” scenario.

Materials and methods. We develop scenario forecasts for population dynamics in a number of African countries. In all scenarios, mortality dynamics corresponds to the “medium” UN forecast. For the birth rate dynamics, two scenarios were simulated: the optimistic one (birth rate goes from current rates to 2.1 children per woman in 20 years, which was observed in Iran; Rwanda and Ethiopia are more or less close to this scenario) and the inertial one (for countries where birth rate declined in 2005–2015, this decline was simulated to continue at the same rate; for countries where birth rate “froze”, two options were modeled; both projected birth rate decline at 0.1 child per woman annually, either starting immediately or after another 10 years).

The results show that all scenarios, even the “optimistic” one, forecast a huge population increase in all countries considered (Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia) over the next 30 years. Slow birth rate decline (or prolonged “stagnation” at high levels) parallel to successful mortality reduction (especially in infants and children) accumulated enormous demographic inertia in many countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (to calculate its scope, an additional “provisional” scenario was calculated in the work). The difference between the “inertial” and the “optimistic” reaches the size or even sometimes exceeds the current population of the country. This underlines the importance of the governments’ efforts to curb population growth. Ethiopia proves such efforts.

Conclusion. Only in Ethiopia the “inertial” and “optimistic” scenarios almost coincide thanks to demographic growth-reducing efforts undertaken there since the early 1990s; thus, in 2005–2015 the birth rate decreased by 1.3 children per woman. This proves that achieving an “optimistic” scenario is possible in African countries, although with considerable and concentrated efforts.

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