Quantitative assessment of the potential of retail outlets

Purpose  of the study.  Improving  the  speed and  efficiency  of decision-making on the development  of sales of products by manufacturing companies  based on the application  of quantitative  estimates of the potential  of retail  outlets,  using automated  methods  of intellectual data analysis of Big Data.

In order to create new mechanisms  for the intellectual  management of enterprises (economic agents) in the concept of the digital economy, it is necessary  to simulate  the  processes of their  interaction  in  the organizational  market  environment  from the perspective of   a multi-agent  approach.  The  approach  describes cybernetic  mechanisms of interaction  of agents with  the ability to adapt  to the needs of the population  based  on  the  analysis  of market  situations  in  order  to develop  intelligent  management  systems  for enterprises  to increase their market  potential  and  competitiveness.  Today  the paradigm  of open complex systems is used to simulate and analyze the mechanisms and processes of interaction  of agents in the market  environment. The main modern functioning of enterprises are corporate information systems,  telecommunication networks, Internet  technologies,  mobile communication systems,  Big Data,  technologies of intellectual  analysis, forecasting and machine  learning. In addition,  information  for modeling,  research and  analysis  of the market  and  the behavior  of agents can be collected from open sources on the Internet.  In the field of mass sales, the result of the introduction of innovative  technologies is the support of decision-making in the process of managing the sales of goods and  services in order to synthesize  effective business-strategies for the production  and  sale of goods, aimed  at increasing the company’s  profits.

From the point of view of the manufacturer, it is necessary to carry out strategic and tactical planning for the deployment  and maintenance of the  sales network  through  retail  outlets that  implement  or have the potential to realize the company’s products. In the overwhelming majority of cases, experts make the collection and analysis of objective data  on outlets,  and  the models  for building  quantitative  estimates of the potential of outlets are used only the internal data on the sale of goods or partners.

Materials and methods. The solution is based on the analog method of assessing the attractiveness  of the outlet, used in marketing.  Data mining  techniques  (various  clustering methods)  and  the  method  of mathematical statistics  - variance  analysis  are  also  used  to solve this problem.

Modern methods of processing large volumes of data and their intellectual  analysis  allow  us to offer new  methods  for quantifying potential based on the analysis of the whole diversity of data stored in the open information  sources.

Results. A multi-stage method of quantitative  assessment of the potential of retail outlets in ruble equivalent  was proposed. A method  has been developed for dividing retail outlets into strata based on features describing the position of the retail outlets, competitive environment, transport accessibility,  and a typical consumer. A modification  of the K-means clustering method  is proposed.

Conclusion.  The  paper proposes an  approach  to solving the  task  of promoting a wide range of products by the manufacturer  through existing distribution  networks.  A method  for quantitative  assessment  of the potential of outlets is proposed. The  proposed method  is based on the analog method of comparing outlets and uses the methods of clustering outlets across a wide range of indicators. The  results of approbation of the approach on the data for 33 regions of the Russian  Federation are given. The  results of the work  are planned  to be used in the future to solve the problem of building a matrix of consumer preferences for outlets.

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