Market of the residential real estate: trends and prospects

Purpose  of the  study.  The  purpose of this research  is modeling  of the current trends for changing the cost of the residential real estate. The price on the housing market is one of the most difficult indicators for the analysis,  as it reflects trends in the commodity  and financial markets,   labor  market,   reacts  to  political,  social  and  economic changes. On the housing market,  it is possible to determine  the level of income  of the population  and  their ability  to accumulate  by the price if we  consider the regional level,  then  it is possible to define degree of attractiveness  of this or that  region, etc. Development  of the housing market promotes improvement of a demographic situation and development  of social stability of the society.

Materials and  methods.  In  the  analysis  of dynamics  of changing the cost of the residential real estate, the methodological base is important.  In  this research,  the methods  of descriptive statistics for the description  of the existing trends to change  the average cost of housing  and  development  of mortgage lending  were  presented  and assessment of structure of price differentiation in regions is carried out. With  the methods of identification  and the analysis of the top trend, the adequate  model, describing a trend functionally  was constructed. For the evident representation of results of the research, tabular and graphic methods  of visualization  of data were used. For the purpose of the solution of objectives the package of the IBM  SPSS Statistics application programs was used.

Results. Results of the research allowed  to define the main trends of changing the cost of the residential  real estate in the Russian  Federation on primary and secondary markets  and to analyze  dynamics of  granting  mortgage  loans.  The  reasons  for  significant  regional price differentiation  of housing  are  considered.  Creation  of model for changing the average cost of housing on primary and  secondary markets  is carried out and forecast estimates to change the price for 2019 are received.

Сonclusion.  The  conducted  research showed  that  there is a steady trend of growth of cost for housing both on primary  and  secondary markets.  It should be noted that in the nearest future the increase in rates of gain of the price in connection  with  the legislation change since July 2019 is possible, first, it would concern primary market,  but in a consequence,  it will be reflected also on the secondary  market.

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