Methodical provision assessment of the contribution of labour migration to inclusive development of Russia

Purpose of research. To offer theoretical and methodological tools for assessing the contribution of external labour migration to inclusive development.

Methods. The study used methods of statistical, econometric analysis, comparative analysis, graphical method of analysis, as well as General theoretical method of analysis of Russian and foreign literary sources. The main information sources for the study were the data of the official website of the Federal state statistics service, as well as the data of the Unified interdepartmental information and statistical system.

Results. The main results of the study are as follows: – Development of a theoretical two-circuit model of migration flow regulation with an emphasis on attracting qualified personnel to the industry. – Econometric results recorded the feedback of migration with economic growth and indicators of inclusive development – manufacturing, high-tech products and innovative exports in the Russian regions. – Results were also obtained, indicating a weak regulation of migration processes in the Russian regions, the effectiveness of which is fixed at the level of 25% out of 100%. – For the inclusive development of the Russian regions, thresholds were obtained for: attracting qualified personnel to the manufacturing industry up to 32% of the total number of workers in the field, the regulation of migration and economic processes by state institutions should be in the area of responsibility at 75% against 25%, the HDI in the regions should be at the level of 93% of 100%. – Threshold values are allowed to form and to work out the forecast of development for the Sverdlovsk region for the perspective till 2025

Conclusion. In General, according to the study, it was concluded that it is necessary to change the course from attracting low-skilled migrants to qualified ones, to strengthen the role of state institutions to regulate migration processes, as well as to increase the level of human capital in Russia. For further economic development, qualitative changes in human capital, industrial development, diversification of the national economy and the development of the country’s scientific and technological potential are needed.

1. Ramos A. R., Ranieri R. & Lammes J. Mapping Inclusive Growth. Working Paper, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. 2013; 105. 55 р.

2. Yormirzoev M.M. Migration, Remittances And Economic Growth: An Empirical Study In The Case Of Former Soviet Republics. Bulletin of Perm University. Series: Economics. 2016; 4(31): 86–94.

3. Castles S., Miller M. The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World (4th edition). Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan. Journal of Contemporary European Research. 2009; 5 (2): 326–327.

4. Solimano A. International Migration in the Age of Crisis and Globalization: Historical and Recent Experiences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2010. 240 р.

5. Haberfeld Y., Menaria R., Sahoo B., Vyas R. Seasonal Migration of Rural Labour in India. Population Research and Policy Review. 1999; 18: 473–489.

6. Dreher A., Poutvaara P. Student Flows and Migration: An Empirical Analysis. Institute for the Study of Labour (IZA). Germany. Discussion Paper. 2005; 1612. 26 р.

7. Bhagwati J.N., Hamada K. The brain drain, international integration of markets for professionals and unemployment. Journal of Development Economics. 1974; 1: 19–42.

8. Ryazantsev S.V. Trudovaya migratsiya v stranakh SNG i Baltii: Tendentsii, posledstviya i regulirovaniye = Labor migration in the CIS and Baltic countries: Trends, implications and regulation. Moscow: Formula of law; 2007. 576 p. (In Russ.)

9. Bildirici M., Sunal S., Aykac Alp E., Orcan M.. Determinants of Human Capital Theory, Growth and Brain Drain: an Econometric Analysis for 77 Countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development. 2005; 5(2): 109-140.

10. Kish E. Philosophy of Globalization. Vek globalizatsii = Age of Globalization. 2010; 2: 16–32. (In Russ.)

11. Taran P. Migration, Discrimination: a Global Context Assessment [Internet]. Key Issues, Situations and Responses. A paper presented at the ENAR Equality & Work Fifth Conference (Brussels, 5–6 December 2013) URL: http://www. globalmigrationpolicy.org/articles/integration/ Equal@Work%20Migration%20Discrimination%20 Context%20Taran%20paper%206-12-13.pdf. (Cited: 18.02.2019.) (In Russ.)

12. Bell D., Inozemtsev V. Epokha razobshchennostey. Razmyshleniya o mire XXI veka = The era of disunity. Reflections on the world of the XXI century. Moscow: Center for Post-Industrial Society Studies; 2007. 304 p. (In Russ.)

13. Ivakhnyuk I; Evraziyskaya migratsionnaya sistema: teoriya i politika = The Eurasian Migration System: Theory and Politics. Moscow: Economic Faculty of Lomonosov Moscow State University, MAKS Press; 2008. 192 p. (In Russ.)

14. Ramos A. R., Ranieri R. & Lammes J. Mapping. Inclusive Growth. Working Paper. International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth; 2013. No. 105.

15. Roy A. Inclusive Growth through MFIs’ Outreach in Assam. Asia-Pacific Business Review. 2011; 7: 47-62.

16. Reilly W.J. The law of retail gravitation. New York; 1931. 75 p.

17. Vakulenko E.S. Modelirovaniye migratsionnykh potokov na urovne regionov, gorodov i munitsipal’nykh obrazovaniy = Modeling of migration flows at the level of regions, cities and municipalities. Moscow: HSE; 2013: 17–18. (In Russ.)

18. Ivliyeva O.D. Estimation of the contribution of highly skilled migration to the German economy based on data from the international patent system. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seriya 5. Geografiya = Moscow University Bulletin. Series 5. Geography. 2015: 59–65. (In Russ.)

19. Biryukova S.S. Metodicheskiye osnovy otsenki vklada migrantov v vosproizvodstvo naseleniya Rossii = Methodical basis for assessing the contribution of migrants to the reproduction of the population of Russia. Moscow: HSE; 2013: 18–22. (In Russ.)

20. Sydikhov A. SH., Tyagunov A. G., Sergeyev A. P., Tarasov D. A. Primeneniye metoda iskusstvennykh neyronnykh setey dlya analiza vremennykh ryadov = Using the method of artificial neural networks to analyze time series [Internet] URL: elar.urfu.ru/bitstream/10995/31702/1/conf_ rtf_2015_06.pdf (Cited: 18.08.2018). (In Russ.)

21. Glaz’yev S.YU. Stabilization of the currency and financial market as a necessary condition for the transition to sustainable development. Ekonomika regiona = Economy of the region. 2016; 12; 1: 28–36. doi 10.17059/2016-1-2 (In Russ.)

22. Ministerstvo ekonomiki RF. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii na 2018 i na planovyy period 2019-2020 godov. = Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation. Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2018 and for the planning period 2019-2020. [Internet] URL: http://economy.gov.ru/minec/about/structure/depmacro/2017271001. (Cited: 04.09.2019). (In Russ.)