Changes in the Structure of Russian Households/Families: a Possible Scenario

Purpose. This article, using data from three Russian population censuses, examines in detail the dynamics of the family structure of the Russian population. The primary role of families comprising a complete married couple and minor children is substantiated. Based on the changing representation of this family type, a hypothesis is advanced about a slow but persistent decline in the share of these families in the family structure and, to an even greater extent, in the household structure. The authors’ second focus is on single-parent families, both nuclear and complex. The representation of both types is growing, with the growth rate of nuclear families lagging behind that of complex single-parent families.

Materials and methods. The research methodology was based on the combined use of institutional and statistical approaches to analyze changes in households/family structure. The study focused on households and families, and examined the dynamics of family types, expressed as changes in family structure over time. A modified balance sheet calculation of the number of families was implemented using retrospective data, confirming the applicability of this method for short-term forecasts.

Results. The expected trajectories of changes in family structure in Russia are formulated: a slow but continuing decline in the representation of so-called core families, i.e., families with both spouses and minor children; an increase in the proportion of single-parent nuclear families (mother with children, father with children); and an increase in single-parent families of complex composition (with other relatives and non-relatives). Since, in the presence of a complete married couple, cohabitation with relatives has increased only in single-child families, it can be assumed that single-parent family units will dominate the growth of families of complex composition.

Conclusion. The findings can be used to adjust demographic and family policy in Russia: promoting marriage formation and strengthening marital unions, promoting awareness of the value of parenthood and the significance of childhood as a stage of life, adapting the middle and younger generations to the increasing longevity of their grandparents, and developing interactions between the institution of the family, healthcare and education systems, and social institutions supporting families and children.

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