Models for Assessing Factors, Influencing the Economic Behavior of The Region’s Population in the Context of Structural Changes

The purpose of the study is to substantiate economic and statistical models for assessing factors that objectively influence the economic behavior of the region’s population. The relevance of the study is related to the challenges of selecting rationality factors that lead to success. However, market-driven changes in the population’s living conditions have had a negative impact on the processes of reproduction, consumption, and the stratification of society into poor and rich, disrupting fair relations between employees and employers. Hypothesis: the more objective the understanding of one’s own life, activities, and behavior based on people’s actions, deeds, and reactions to changes, the more realistic the models of economic behavior of the population will be. The approaches of scientists who have been awarded Nobel prizes in Economics should be considered as universally recognized models of development. V. Leontiev was awarded for his input-output model (1973). G. Becker was awarded for expanding the scope of microeconomic analysis to include various aspects of human behavior (1992). A. Deaton was awarded for analyzing the problems of consumption, poverty, and social welfare (2015). At the same time, in a free market environment, no one has yet managed to develop a sustainable development model. Each country has its own national development model, which differs from the models of other countries in many ways.

The research materials and methods include economic and statistical models, trends, adaptive and econometric models, extrapolation, comparisons, and generalizations.

Research results: it has been established that factor assessment models include the main components of behavior: personal, demographic, social, economic, and security factors, and “non-economic” variables (moods, emotions, intuitions, and other factors) have been eliminated. The concept of economic and statistical models has been formulated, which is a system of relationships that describes the factors that have a positive impact on population behavior and the reproduction of human, material, and financial capital, and the parameters of which are estimated based on actual data using statistical methods. The study carried out modeling and forecasting of determining models affecting the economic behavior of the population of the subsidized region through trend methods.

Conclusion: the use of economic and statistical models to assess the factors affecting the economic behavior of the population has allowed us to identify the problems that hinder the reproduction of human, material, and financial capital, which affect the improvement of people’s quality of life. The results obtained can be used to substantiate the theoretical and methodological foundations for developing models that directly affect the life and economic behavior of the population.

1. Geras’kin M.I. Assessment of the Parameters of Government Influence on the Model of Volunteer Behavior Based on the Analysis of Incentive Functions. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Bulletin of Samara State University of Economics. 2025; 3(245): 76-89. (In Russ.)

2. Noskov S.I., Kirillova T.K., Vedernikov V.S. Complete Dynamic Criterion of Behavior Consistency in Assessing the Adequacy of Regression Models. Vestnik Tikhookeanskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta = Bulletin of Pacific State University. 2024; 3(74): 47-56. DOI: 10.38161/1996-3440-2024-3-47-56. (In Russ.)

3. Shmarov V.A., Osnitskiy A.K., Barskiy K.A. Evaluation of behavioral strategies and models of coping behavior of HIV-positive men in stressful situations. Vestnik Moskovskogo informatsionnotekhnologicheskogo universiteta – Moskovskogo arkhitekturno-stroitel’nogo instituta = Bulletin of Moscow Information Technology University – Moscow Institute of Architecture and Civil Engineering. 2020; 2: 49-55. (In Russ.)

4. Suvorova A.V. Hybrid models for assessing the parameters of socially significant behavior based on an ultra-small incomplete set of observations. Trudy SPIIRAN = Proceedings of SPIIRAS. 2013; 1(24): 116-134. (In Russ.)

5. Yevseyenkova Ye.V., Kagan Ye.S., Morozova I.S., Belogay K.N., Borisenko Yu.V. Using a fuzzy model for a comprehensive assessment of the risk of suicidal behavior in adolescents. Suitsidologiya = Suicidology. 2019; 10; 2(35): 72-81. (In Russ.)

6. Kuznetsova M.Ye. Assessing the Degree of Influence of the Consumer Behavior Model of Households in the Republic of Khakassia on Inflation. KH Mezhdunarodnaya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferentsiya «Konkurentnyy potentsial regiona: otsenka i effektivnost’ ispol’zovaniya» = X International Scientific and Practical Conference «Competitive Potential of the Region: Assessment and Efficiency of Use». 2019: 83-84. (In Russ.)

7. Subbotina N.A., Nikulin A.N., Goncharuk T.N. Assessing the Formation of the Safety Behavior Model – the Generalized Harrington Desirability Function. XXI vek: itogi proshlogo i problemy nastoyashchego plyus = XXI Century: Results of the Past and Problems of the Present Plus. 2024; 13; 4(68): 230-237. (In Russ.)

8. Dubovik M.V., Shaposhnikov A.M. Using Lead Scoring Models to Assess the Behavior of Consumers of Telecommunications Industry Services. Upravlencheskiy uchet = Management Accounting. 2022; 10-3: 796-806. (In Russ.)

9. Vasil’yeva M.V. Anti-corruption model of behavior of customs officials: assessment of the impact of digital tools. BENEFICIUM = BENEFICIUM. 2023; 2(47): 80-88. DOI: 10.34680/BENEFICIUM.2023.2(47). (In Russ.)

10. Strel’tsova A.V., Yakimova L.A. Foursector model for assessing personnel behavior in an organization. Materialy mezhdunarodnoy nauchnoy konferentsii «Problemy sovremennoy agrarnoy nauki» = Proceedings of the international scientific conference «Problems of modern agricultural science». Krasnoyarsk: Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University; 2021: 351-354. (In Russ.)

11. Gorbachev D.O., Sazonova O.V., Borodina L.M., Gavryushin M.Yu. Application of factor analysis in the development of models. Sovremennyye problemy zdravookhraneniya i meditsinskoy statistiki = Modern problems of health care and medical statistics. 2020; 4: 288-297. DOI: 10.24411/2312-2935-2020-00114. (In Russ.)

12. Bogatyrev S.Yu. Theoretical Foundations of Behavioral Assessment. Finansy i kredit = Finance and Credit. 2020; 26; 1: 20–35. DOI: 10.24891/fc.26.1.20. (In Russ.)

13. Bobkov I.A., Burdina A.A., NekhrestBobkova A.A. Modeling Uncertainty Using Neural Networks. Ars Administrandi (Iskusstvo upravleniya) = Ars Administrandi (The Art of Management). 2023; 15; 1: 45–59. DOI: 10.17072/2218-9173-2023-1-45-59. (In Russ.)

14. Sirotkin V.B. Models of collective behavior: competition and solidarity. Aktual’nyye problemy ekonomiki i upravleniya = Actual problems of economics and management. 2022; 3: 57–67. (In Russ.)

15. Amerdinova M.M., Akmataliyev A.T., Akmatova G.E. Moral consciousness as a model of behavior. Nauka. Obrazovaniye. Tekhnika = Science. Education. Technology. 2023; 2(77): 94-100. (In Russ.)

16. Iskoskov M.O., Kargina Ye.V. Some aspects of the consumer behavior model. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta = Bulletin of the Samara State University of Economics. 2023; 8(226): 9-16. DOI: 10.46554/1993-0453-2023-8-226-9-16. (In Russ.)

17. Algazin G.I., Algazina D.G. Conditions for the convergence of the dynamics of reflexive collective behavior in the Cournot oligopoly model with incomplete information. Avtomatika i telemekhanika = Automation and Telemechanics. 2023; 5: 45-60. DOI: 10.31857/S0005231023050045. (In Russ.)

18. Vishnyakova N.A., Kurmyshkina O.N. Model of health-preserving behavior of the regional population. Kul’tura fizicheskaya i zdorov’ye = Physical Culture and Health. 2021; 4: 18-21. DOI: 10.47438/1999-3455_2021_4_18. (In Russ.)

19. Kadyrova M.A. Organizational behavior and its main models. Tendentsii razvitiya nauki i obrazovaniya = Trends in the development of science and education. 2020; 61-6: 89-92. DOI: 10.18411/lj-05-2020-131. (In Russ.)

20. Delova L.A. Etiquette stereotypical models of behavior of the peoples of the North Caucasus. Nauchnyy al’manakh = Scientific Almanac. 2022; 6-1(92): 120-123. (In Russ.)

21. Alekseyev M.A., Gushchina Ye.Yu. Behavior of economic entities in financial cycle models depending on the type of activity. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika = Economy and business: theory and practice. 2019; 5-1: 23-29. DOI: 10.24411/2411-0450-2019-10664. (In Russ.)

22. Khusnutdinova E.R. Models of personality behavior in conflict. ViaScientiarum – Doroga znaniy = ViaScientiarum – The Road of Knowledge. 2023; 3: 171-181. (In Russ.)

23. Uglova A.B., Bogdanovskaya I.M., Nizomutdinov B.A. Model of self-destructive behavior of modern youth based on the synthesis of biopsychosocial and cyberpsychological paradigms. Perspektivy nauki i obrazovaniya = Prospects of Science and Education. 2023; 1(61): 432-450. DOI: 10.32744/pse.2023.1.26. (In Russ.)

24. Orlov A. Transition from F. Quesnay’s «Economic Table» to K. Marx’s Reproduction Schemes [Internet]. Finansovaya analitika = Financial Analytics. 2007. Available from: http://www.finanal.ru/009-010/perekhod-ot-ekonomicheskoy-tablitsy-f-kene-k-skhemam-vosproizvodstva-K.Marksa. (In Russ.)

25. Leont’yev V.V. Vozdeystviye na okruzhayushchuyu sredu i struktura ekonomiki: podkhod «Zatraty-vypusk» = Environmental Impact and Economic Structure: The Input-Output Approach. Moscow: Politizdat; 1990. (In Russ.)

26. Bekker G.S. Economic Analysis and Human Behavior. THESIS = THESIS. 1993; 1; 1: 38. (In Russ.)

27. Bobkov N.V., Kvachev V.G., Shcherbakova O.I. Nobel laureate Angus Deaton and the development of Russian science: research on the standard and quality of life, methods for assessing and measuring inequality and poverty. Uroven’ zhizni naseleniya regionov Rossii = Standard of Living of the Population of Russian Regions. 2015; 4(198): 7–26. DOI: 10.12737/17678. (In Russ.)