STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING FERTILITY IN THE ORENBURG REGION
https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2015-2-168-172
Abstract
The revealed structure of the time series analyzed indicator is selected cyclical and trend components. The simulation of one-dimensional timeseries taking into account the selected cyclesand variability. Comparative analysis of trends and variability of total fertility rate for selectedcycles. The identified factors and their estimated impact on the dynamics of the total fertility rateat the beginning of the ascending phase of cycle(2004-2012). Developed factor forecast andforecast univariate time series.
About the Authors
Natalia S. Eremeeva
Orenburg stateUniversity (OSU)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatiana V. Lebedeva
Orenburg state University (OSU)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
References
1. Афанасьев В.Н. Анализ временных рядов и прогнозирование : учебник [Электронный ресурс] / В.Н. Афанасьев, М.М. Юзбашев. - М. : Финансы и статистика, 2012. - 320 с. - URL: http://biblioclub.ru/ index.php? page=book&id=215316 (27.05.2014).
2. Afanasyev V.N. Time series analysis and forecasting : a tutorial [Electronic resource] / V.N. Afanasiev, M.M. Yuzbashev. - M.: Financy and statistika, 2012. - 320 p. - URL: http://biblioclub.ru/ index.php? page=book&id=215316 (27.05.2014).
Review
For citations:
Eremeeva N.S., Lebedeva T.V. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS AND FORECASTING FERTILITY IN THE ORENBURG REGION. Statistics and Economics. 2015;(2):168-172. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2015-2-168-172
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