umovestСтатистика и ЭкономикаStatistics and Economics2500-3925Plekhanov Russian University of Economics10.21686/2500-3925-2014-2-99-104umovest-393Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКАECONOMICSИНФРАСТРУКТУРНЫЕ ПРОЕКТЫ: ОШИБКИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ,НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ И РИСКИINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: FORECAST ERRORS, UNCERTANTIES AND RISKSЛанцовАлександр ЕвгеньевичLantsovAlexander E.Alexander.Lantsov@gmail.comМЭСИРоссияMoscow State University of Economics, Statisticsand Informatics (MESI)Russian Federation2014090820160299104Copyright © Ланцов А.Е., 20162016Ланцов А.Е.Lantsov A.E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://statecon.rea.ru/jour/article/view/393

Однойизособенностейинфраструктуры является ее высокая капиталоемкость, в условиях дефицита государственных бюджетов большинства стран мира и недостатка свободных средств частных инвесторов, для повышения уровня обеспеченности экономики инфраструктурой необходимо точно оценивать будущие затраты на реализацию инфраструктурных проектов и отдачу от них. Вданнойстатьемырассмотримосновныепричиныошибокпрогнозирования доходности инфраструктурных проектов и затрат на их создание, классифицируемриски, дадимрекомендации по нивелированию всех видов рисков с целью подготовки более точных прогнозов.

Due to capital intensiveness of infrastructure projects, public budget defi cits, and lack of private funds available it’s highly important to evaluate the future capitalcosts and return of infrastructure projectsaccurately to increase provision of economy with infrastructure assets.The article considers typical errors inforecasting return of infrastructure projectsand capital expenditures to develop it, riskclassification and measures to mitigate it.

инфраструктурные проектызатратыотдачапрогнозированиеinfrastructure projectscapitalexpendituresreturnforecastingReferencesPaving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure. World Economic Forum. - 2010Paving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure. World Economic Forum. - 2010Flyvbjerg B. Policy and planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures. - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3781. - December 2005Flyvbjerg B. Policy and planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures. - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3781. - December 2005Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Pickrell D. 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Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. // European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research - Issue 10 (1) - March 2010Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, Eric J.E. Molin, Bent van Wee. Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. // European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research - Issue 10 (1) - March 2010Склонность людей и организаций недооценивать количество временинеобходимоеимдлявыполнения определенного задания, даже если они уже выполняли похожие задания. Термин впервые был предложенв 1979 году вработе Даниэля Канемана и Амоса ТверскиСклонность людей и организаций недооценивать количество временинеобходимоеимдлявыполнения определенного задания, даже если они уже выполняли похожие задания. Термин впервые был предложенв 1979 году вработе Даниэля Канемана и Амоса ТверскиПредрасположенностьлюдей недооцениватьвозможностьнаступления негативного события и переоцениватьвозможностьнаступления благоприятного событияПредрасположенностьлюдей недооцениватьвозможностьнаступления негативного события и переоцениватьвозможностьнаступления благоприятного событияСистематические ошибки в мышлении или шаблонные отклонения в суждениях, которые происходят в определённых ситуациях. Существованиебольшинстваизэтих когнитивныхискаженийбылоописаноучёными, амногиебылидоказаны в психологических экспериментахСистематические ошибки в мышлении или шаблонные отклонения в суждениях, которые происходят в определённых ситуациях. Существованиебольшинстваизэтих когнитивныхискаженийбылоописаноучёными, амногиебылидоказаны в психологических экспериментахDisincentivising overbidding for toll road concessions. Australian Government. Departement of Infrastructure and Transport. - 2012Disincentivising overbidding for toll road concessions. Australian Government. Departement of Infrastructure and Transport. - 2012Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. - Cambridge, UK: Cambrige University Press. - 2002Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. - Cambridge, UK: Cambrige University Press. - 2002Подобноесоотношениесобственных средств (или большее) показало на практике свою эффективность в повышении уровня ответственности - Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Подобноесоотношениесобственных средств (или большее) показало на практике свою эффективность в повышении уровня ответственности - Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Paving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure. World Economic Forum. - 2010Paving the Way: Maximizing the Value of Private Finance in Infrastructure. World Economic Forum. - 2010Flyvbjerg B. Policy and planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures. - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3781. - December 2005Flyvbjerg B. Policy and planning for Large Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures. - World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3781. - December 2005Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Pickrell D. Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecasts Versus Actual Ridership and Cost. Washington, D.C.. Department of Transportation. - 1990Pickrell D. Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecasts Versus Actual Ridership and Cost. Washington, D.C.. Department of Transportation. - 1990Odeck J. “Cost Overruns in Road construction - What Are their Sizes and Determinants?” // Transport Policy. 11 (1):43-53. - 2004Odeck J. “Cost Overruns in Road construction - What Are their Sizes and Determinants?” // Transport Policy. 11 (1):43-53. - 2004Bain R., Wilkins M. The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities, Standard & Poor’s. London. - 2002Bain R., Wilkins M. The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities, Standard & Poor’s. London. - 2002Bain R. Error and Optimism Bias in Toll Road Traffic Forecasts. // Transportation №36 (5), p. 469-482. - 2009Bain R. Error and Optimism Bias in Toll Road Traffic Forecasts. // Transportation №36 (5), p. 469-482. - 2009Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue. NCHRP Synthesis 364. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. - 2006Estimating Toll Road Demand and Revenue. NCHRP Synthesis 364. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. - 2006Bain R., Toll Roads: Big Trouble Down Under // Infrastructure Journal, London - 17 January 2013Bain R., Toll Roads: Big Trouble Down Under // Infrastructure Journal, London - 17 January 2013Prud’homme, Remy. Infrastructure and development. Washington D.C. - The Worldbank. - 2004Prud’homme, Remy. Infrastructure and development. Washington D.C. - The Worldbank. - 2004Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, Eric J.E. Molin, Bent van Wee. Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. // European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research - Issue 10 (1) - March 2010Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bent Flyvbjerg, Eric J.E. Molin, Bent van Wee. Cost overruns in large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: Explanations and their theoretical embeddedness. // European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research - Issue 10 (1) - March 2010The planning fallacy is a tendency for people and organizations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have experience of similar tasks overrunning. The term was first proposed in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos TverskyThe planning fallacy is a tendency for people and organizations to underestimate how long they will need to complete a task, even when they have experience of similar tasks overrunning. The term was first proposed in a 1979 paper by Daniel Kahneman and Amos TverskyThe optimism bias is a bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to othersThe optimism bias is a bias that causes a person to believe that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to othersA cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in judgment that occurs in particular situationsA cognitive bias is a pattern of deviation in judgment that occurs in particular situationsDisincentivising overbidding for toll road concessions. Australian Government. Departement of Infrastructure and Transport. - 2012Disincentivising overbidding for toll road concessions. Australian Government. Departement of Infrastructure and Transport. - 2012Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. - Cambridge, UK: Cambrige University Press. - 2002Gilovich T., Griffin D., Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgement. - Cambridge, UK: Cambrige University Press. - 2002Such a ratio showed high effectiveness in practice to improve accountability - Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003Such a ratio showed high effectiveness in practice to improve accountability - Flyvbjerg B., Bruzelius N., Rothengatter W. Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition. - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. - 2003

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.