umovestСтатистика и ЭкономикаStatistics and Economics2500-3925Plekhanov Russian University of Economics10.21686/2500-3925-2013-6-142-146umovest-318Research ArticleСТАТИСТИКА И МАТЕМАТИЧЕСКИЕ МЕТОДЫ В ЭКОНОМИКЕSTATISTICAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN ECONOMICSМОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ТЕМПОВ РОСТА ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ГОРОДОВ РОССИИ: ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННЫЙ АСПЕКТMODELING POPULATION GROWTH RATE IN RUSSIAN CITIES: SPATIAL ASPECTSБалашОльга СергеевнаBalashOlga S.olgabalash@mail.ruСаратовский государственный университет им. Н.Г. ЧернышевскогоРоссияSaratov State UniversityRussian Federation20130908201606142146Copyright © Балаш О.С., 20162016Балаш О.С.Balash O.S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://statecon.rea.ru/jour/article/view/318

В статье проводится анализ темпов роста численности населения городов России в зависимости от их размера и региона. Выявлено, что темпы роста численности населения городов неодинаковы для регионов России. Проводится эконометрический анализ данных, имеющих географическую привязку методом географически взвешенной регрессии. Для определения причин роста городов используется показатель географического рыночного потенциала, предложенный Soo.

The article analyzes the growth rate of the urban population in Russia according to their size and region. It is revealed that the growth rate of the urban population are not the same for the regions of Russia. An econometric analysis of the data with geo-referenced using geographically weighted regression is conducted. In order to determine the causes of urban growth rate geographic market potential offered by Soo is used.

факторы роста численности населения городовпространственно зависимые данныеанализ пространственно неоднородных данныхметоды пространственной эконометрикигеографически взвешенная регрессиягеографический рыночный потенциалfactors of population growth in citiesspatially dependent datathe analysis of spatially heterogeneous datamethods of spatial econometricsgeographically weighted regressionthe geographic market potentialReferencesAnselin L. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models // Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. The Netherlands, 1988.Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models // Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. The Netherlands, 1988.Anselin L., Florax R. and Rey S. (eds.). Advances in Spatial Econometrics. Methodology, Tools and Applications. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2004.Anselin L., Florax R. and Rey S. (eds.). Advances in Spatial Econometrics. Methodology, Tools and Applications. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2004.Le Sage J.P., Pace R. K. Introduction to spatial econometrics. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.Le Sage J.P., Pace R. K. Introduction to spatial econometrics. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.Soo K. T. Zipf’s Law for cities: A cross-country investigation // Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2005. № 35(3). Р. 239-263.Soo K. T. Zipf’s Law for cities: A cross-country investigation // Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2005. № 35(3). Р. 239-263.Fotheringham A.S., Pitts T.C. Directional variation in distance-decay // Environment and Planning A27: р. 715-729, 1995.Fotheringham A.S., Pitts T.C. Directional variation in distance-decay // Environment and Planning A27: р. 715-729, 1995.Cleveland W.S., Devlin S.J. Locally Weighted Regression: An Approach to Regression Analysis by Local Fitting // Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.83 No. 403, 1988.Cleveland W.S., Devlin S.J. Locally Weighted Regression: An Approach to Regression Analysis by Local Fitting // Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.83 No. 403, 1988.Fotheringham A.S., Brunsdon C., Charrlton M. Geographically weighted regression the analysis of spatially varying relationships: University of Newcastle, UK John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002.Fotheringham A.S., Brunsdon C., Charrlton M. Geographically weighted regression the analysis of spatially varying relationships: University of Newcastle, UK John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002.Балаш В.А., Балаш О.С., Харламов А.В. Эконометрический анализ геокодированных данных о ценах на жилую недвижимость // Ж. Прикладная эконометрика. 2011. № 2. С. 62-77.Балаш В.А., Балаш О.С., Харламов А.В. Эконометрический анализ геокодированных данных о ценах на жилую недвижимость // Ж. Прикладная эконометрика. 2011. № 2. С. 62-77.Anselin, L. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, 1998.Anselin, L. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, 1998.Anselin L., Florax R. and Rey S. (eds.). Advances in Spatial Econometrics. Methodology, Tools and Applications. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.Anselin L., Florax R. and Rey S. (eds.). Advances in Spatial Econometrics. Methodology, Tools and Applications. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.LeSage J.P., Pace R.K. Introduction to spatial econometrics. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.LeSage J.P., Pace R.K. Introduction to spatial econometrics. CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL.Soo K. T. Zipf’s Law for cities: A cross-country investigation // Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2005. № 35(3). Р. 239-263.Soo K. T. Zipf’s Law for cities: A cross-country investigation // Regional Science and Urban Economics. 2005. № 35(3). Р. 239-263.Fotheringham A.S., Pitts T.C. Directional variation in distance-decay. Environment and Planning A27. Р. 715-29, 1995.Fotheringham A.S., Pitts T.C. Directional variation in distance-decay. Environment and Planning A27. Р. 715-29, 1995.Cleveland W.S.; Devlin S.J. Locally Weighted Regression: An Approach to Regression Analysis by Local Fitting // Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.83 No.403, 1988.Cleveland W.S.; Devlin S.J. Locally Weighted Regression: An Approach to Regression Analysis by Local Fitting // Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.83 No.403, 1988.Fotheringham A.S., Brunsdon C., Charrlton M. Geographically weighted regression the analysis of spatially varying relationships. University of Newcastle, UKJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002.Fotheringham A.S., Brunsdon C., Charrlton M. Geographically weighted regression the analysis of spatially varying relationships. University of Newcastle, UKJohn Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002.Balash V., Balash O., Harlamov A. A spatial econometric analysis of the housing market // Prikladnaya ekonometrika. 2011. № 2. Р. 62-77.Balash V., Balash O., Harlamov A. A spatial econometric analysis of the housing market // Prikladnaya ekonometrika. 2011. № 2. Р. 62-77.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.